Understanding Industry Relative Exposure to Physical Impacts of Climate Change

As banks and lenders increasingly aim to assess the climate risks in their portfolios, there is a growing need for an efficient way to screen thousands of companies on their exposure to climate risks. Likewise, as regulators develop new requirements for stress testing and disclosure, they’re looking to phase in requirements and understand what can be reasonably assessed and disclosed in the near term. Traditionally, a company’s sector is used as a basis for understanding its exposure to climate risk when more detailed information is not available. This approach is the foundation for transition risk approximations, as a company’s exposure to risks from the transition to a low-carbon economy is largely driven by its sector. However, a broader range of companies can face risks from physical climate hazards, based primarily on the location of their operations. Physical risks translate into business risks through damage and disruption at business manufacturing plants, data centers and other operating facilities, as well as through their supply chains.

Approach

One way to obtain a high-level view of a company’s exposure to physical risk is to understand the trends of risk exposure both in its sector and in the countries in which it operates. We leveraged our database of 5,000 global companies and their underlying 2 million global corporate facilities  scored on their forward-looking exposure to climate hazards to provide a view on relative risk exposure by industry. We use the framework in figure 1 to assess companies’ exposure to climate risk and aggregate the findings up to the sector and country level to provide a high-level view that’s informed by asset-level analysis.

Framework for assessing a company’s exposure to physical climate risk:

  • A company’s Operations Risk is based on its facility-level exposure floods, heat stress, hurricanes & typhoons, sea level rise, water stress and wildfires. The analysis also considers the sensitivity of different types of facilities. For example, manufacturing plants with their high energy demands are more sensitive to extreme heat than offices.
  • Supply Chain Risk is based on the risk in countries that export commodities that the company depends on and a company’s reliance on climate-sensitive resources such as water, land and energy, based on its industry.
  • Market Risk is based on where a company’s sales are generated and how its industry has historically been impacted by weather variability.

Figure 1. Framework for assessing companies’ exposure to physical climate risk.

Scores are normalized, with 0 being the least exposed and 100 being the most exposed. In line with considerations of relevant time horizons and of impacts being locked in over the climatic short term our company risk scores consider projected climate impacts in the 2030-2040 time period under a single RCP scenario, RCP 8.5 (the worst case scenario, also known as business as usual), but leverages several climate models.

 

Key Findings by Sector

In this analysis we share key findings on companies’ Operations Risk, which is based on their facilities’ exposure to each climate hazard. Understanding relative exposure by sector can inform high-level assessments of market-wide risk based  on the concentrations of certain industries in loan portfolios.

Manufacturing, construction and transportation/storage sectors have the highest Operations Risk scores (Figure 2). This is noteworthy because these are industries with particular vulnerabilities to disruption from extreme events such as floods, as well as vulnerability to chronic stresses like increasing temperatures which affects labor productivity and energy prices. Companies in the manufacturing sector are often part of global supply chains, such that disruptions at plants in one country can lead to shortages around the world. Construction and transportation, on the other hand, are often critical for local economies.

Figure 2. The average Operations Risk for companies within each sector. The size of the box represents the number of facilities assessed within each sector and the color of the box represents its relative risk to physical climate hazards. The number in the box shows the average Operations Risk for companies in that sector.

 

The next layer of detail provides an understanding of a sector’s relative risk by hazard, based on the average risk scores of companies in that sector. As risks and also relevant corporate resilience measures vary based on hazard, this detail can help inform risk management and engagement efforts.

Figure 3. The average hazard risk score for companies within the manufacturing sector.

 

Key Findings by Country

Within a sector there are significant differences in average exposure depending on the country, as physical climate risk varies by location. For example, in the construction sector the average Operations Risk scores are highest in the Philippines, Vietnam and Mexico, while the average scores are lowest in Finland, Bulgaria and Switzerland.

Different countries also have different risk exposure based on the hazard. For example, the Philippines, Indonesia and Mexico are countries with significant numbers of corporate facilities that also stand out with the highest Operations Risk scores. However, for wildfires, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil stand out as countries with significant numbers of corporate facilities that are among the highest risk (Figure 4). Meanwhile, for water stress Kazakhstan, Morocco and  Australia are among the most exposed (Figure 5)

Figure 4. Facilities owned by transportation and storage companies, colored based on their exposure to wildfires.

Figure 5. Global corporate facilities owned by manufacturing companies, colored based on their exposure to water stress.

 

This dataset provides a multifaceted view on physical risk exposure by industry and country, which can be tailored to the needs of specific risk assessments and inform views on aggregate portfolio risk.

US Automotive Manufacturing Hubs Exposed to Climate Risk

Introduction: Growing Investment in US Manufacturing

Manufacturing stands out as a key part of President Biden’s America Jobs Plan and there is wide support for strengthening American manufacturing. Historically, manufacturing was a backbone of the domestic economy, contributing around 25% to national GDP, but that number fell to 11% in 2019.

The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the need for resilient and local supply chains, and provides an opportunity to transition to a low-carbon economy as part of the recovery. Investing in the domestic manufacturing industry offers a lifeline to new sectors, such as electric vehicles (EVs), which can introduce clean energy jobs nationwide. The American Jobs Plan offers “$52 billion to increase access to capital for domestic manufacturers, focusing on successful existing access programs and targeting rural manufacturing and clean energy” and “a $174 billion investment to win the EV market.” While it’s unclear if this exact proposal will pass, it is likely that there will be growing investment in domestic manufacturing. At the same time, increasingly frequent climate-driven extreme weather events demonstrate the need to build climate resilience into new manufacturing investments.

In this analysis, we explore municipal climate risk exposure in states with significant and growing automotive manufacturing industries. Understanding municipal climate risk is important because in addition to the direct physical threat to manufacturing plants, climate emergencies cause loss of life, hinder commutes and disrupt supply chains by closing roads, airports and other infrastructure. We leverage our county climate risk scores, which quantify population-weighted exposure to floods, heat stress, hurricanes & typhoons, sea level rise, water stress and wildfires, over the 2030-2040 horizon.

Automotive Manufacturing in Michigan & Tennessee

Both Michigan and Tennessee have seen “real manufacturing GDP grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 3% between 2009 and 2019, about twice as high as the national rate.” Michigan automotive manufacturing generated around $225 billion and 712,000 jobs in 2019. Automotive manufacturing is Tennessee’s dominant manufacturing sector and the state’s employment in the  sector is 3.3 times higher than national average.

In addition to serving as hubs for traditional automotive manufacturing, Michigan and Tennessee are both seeing increasing investment in EVs, which provide a growing opportunity for these states to continue revitalizing their automobile manufacturing sectors while creating jobs and growing their economies. However, when making capital-intensive investments in new facilities and equipment it is important to consider the long-term risks these assets may face, to protect the company’s investment, and also to ensure that the regional economic benefits are seen.

Flood Risk

In addition to damaging equipment and products, floods can also cause upstream and downstream supply chain disruptions and impact manufacturing productivity if employees cannot get to work. Moreover, since manufacturing can serve as a regional anchor, employees living one or two counties over may be affected by floods that avoid the facility itself.

Figure 1. Michigan county-level exposure to flood risk.

Of Michigan’s 83 counties, 70% are exposed to high flood risk (Figure 1). In 2020, flood damage in Midland County was assessed at over $200 million as heavy rains broke dams and led to significant flooding. Further south,  Wayne County has long been a nexus for the automotive industry and is home to the headquarters of both General Motors and Ford. Ford pledged $850 million  and Fiat Chrysler is investing $4.5 billion to build assembly plants and expand operations there. The county also holds 23% of US automotive production and 76% of total automotive Research & Development. While Figure 1 shows that Wayne County is at a lower risk for flooding than the surrounding counties, all manufacturing in the area would be affected by delivery delays and commute disruptions if the regional transportation infrastructure is not prepared for increased floods.

Figure 2. Tennessee county-level exposure to floods.

In Tennessee, about 90% of the 95 counties are exposed to high flood risk (Figure 2). We find that most key manufacturing hubs are at high risk of flooding, while others are adjacent to highly exposed counties. Williamson County, where General Motors is planning a multi-billion dollar EV battery plant, neighbors Davidson County, the epicenter of catastrophic flooding, and multiple deaths in March 2021. This flood event ultimately led to a Federal Disaster Declaration which expanded to neighboring counties.  Rutherford County has high flood risk and is home of the US manufacturing facility for Nissan Leaf, which was 2016’s most productive automotive manufacturing facility.

Heat Stress 

Heat stress is also a significant threat to manufacturing. It can cause electricity shortages or outages due to increased use of air conditioning, which is already happening more frequently as heat waves increase in duration and severity. Increasing temperatures also present a public health hazard that increases the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory illness and lowers worker productivity. Research shows that temperatures above 90F for six or more days reduces weekly production by an average of 8% in US automotive manufacturing plants.

Figure 3. Michigan county-level exposure to heat stress.

Heat stress is less of statewide concern for Michigan, with only 12% of counties exposed (Figure 3), but it is a high risk for Wayne County, where most of the state’s automotive manufacturing is centered.  Ford, Fiat Chrysler and General Motors all reopened their North American manufacturing facilities on May 18th. This means facilities with high exposure to heat stress are coming back online right as summer is picking up, and the season is likely to be warmer than average, especially in southern Michigan.

Figure 4. Tennessee county-level exposure to heat stress.

Over 92% of Tennessee counties are exposed to heat stress (Figure 4), which represents significant risk for the industry and economies it underpins. The key counties housing the state’s automotive manufacturing facilities are all at high risk. New environmental commitments by General Motors signal growth in domestic EV manufacturing, as they plan a multi-billion dollar EV battery plant in Tennessee with LG Electronics. In a state largely exposed to increasing temperatures, planning for increasing energy costs will help increase the viability of these new facilities.

Mitigating Climate Risk

The revitalization of the US automotive manufacturing industry provides an opportunity for key regions to benefit from population growth, a growing tax base and increased economic activity. However, the success of these developments will rely on business resilience to increasing climate extremes. There are opportunities for municipalities to invest in climate resilience measures both to reduce risk to existing businesses and to attract more business. For example, New York City’s  report outlining ways in which industry can take innovative and cost effective approaches to implementing flood preparedness measures also highlights opportunities for the public sector to support these efforts, including through flexible zoning.

Companies would benefit from exploring a region’s climate risk carefully before developing new facilities and from pricing effective risk mitigations into plant development. For example, for heat stress, at the site level, companies can anticipate higher energy costs, improve insulation, build generators, leverage renewable energy and invest in monitoring and predictive systems to understand facility-level energy use. Nissan installed sub-metering in its Tennessee facilities to monitor energy use, identify unnecessary energy draws, and reschedule certain fabrication to when more energy is available.

Likewise, due to the automobile industry’s reliance on both reliable energy and onsite employees, there are opportunities for businesses to engage with the municipalities to help maintain the resilience of key regional infrastructure to relevant hazards like floods and heat waves. For example, companies can partner with the public sector on initiatives like investing in parks and other green infrastructure which can both help reduce the health impacts of heat waves and can also contribute to flood reduction. Companies such as General MotorsFord, and Nissan invest heavily in education and training for the communities where they are located, and there may be an opportunity to develop trainings around climate risk, which can contribute to increased resilience of the local community, including companies’ employees and customers.

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This post was updated on June 4th to omit data on company facility exposure due to data limitations.

Newsletter: Climate Commitments

Four Twenty Seven, an affiliate of Moody's, sends a monthly newsletter highlighting recent developments in climate risk and resilience. 

In Focus: Climate Commitments

Climate Summit Commitments

The leaders of 40 nations and key private sector participants who joined Biden's Climate Summit last week, made new emissions reductions targets or recommitted to existing promises. The US, Canada, Brazil, Japan and other countries made ambitious new commitments. While change comes when commitments are followed by tangible action, these have the potential to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, with implications for businesses and investors, including significant opportunities.


Financial Sector Action on Climate Change

Meanwhile, financial regulators around the world continue to issue guidance and expectations around climate risk. Last week the EU published the climate adaptation and mitigation portion of its Sustainable Finance Taxonomy and investors will be expected to disclose in line with the taxonomy starting next year. The EU also published a draft legislative proposal for a Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, which would replace the Non-Financial Reporting Directive and greatly expand the number of companies mandated to report on a range of environmental factors, including climate. New Zealand is considering passing a bill that would mandate climate risk disclosure for banks, insurers and investors by 2023. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority issued a public consultation on its draft guidance for financial institutions to manage the risks of climate change.

Mark Carney, UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, announced the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) last week, bringing together several industry-led net zero initiatives focused on supporting the transition to net zero emissions by 2050. Participating groups include the new Net Zero Banking Alliance, the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative and the Net Zero Asset Owner Alliance. The Net Zero Insurance Alliance is expected to launch soon and will also join GFANZ. There are over 160 participating firms, which commit to science-based targets, addressing all emission scopes, issuing transparent disclosures and setting 2030 interim targets. 
 

The American Jobs Plan

Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure proposal places climate change and environmental justice in the center. The plan's wide-ranging elements include funding to grow the electric vehicle market in the US and to improve the nation's aging water and electricity infrastructure. There are provisions for affordable housing and a distinct focus on jobs training to support a just transition to a low-carbon economy. The plan aims to remove fossil fuel subsidies and mandate that the companies help pay to cleanup toxic sites. As crumbling infrastructure and polluting facilities are often in low-income communities and communities of color, these items would contribute to fostering environmental justice. Likewise, the plan allocates funding specifically to communities of color and frontline communities, and includes provisions to increase wages for in-home care workers who are often women of color, and for broadband internet development which is particularly needed in Black and Latino communities.

Moody's Analytics assessed the macroeconomic implications of the plan, saying it "provides a meaningful boost to the nation's long-term economic growth."
Banks and Climate Stress Tests

Moody's Webinar - Climate Stress Tests: What You Need to Know

As numbers of regulators begin to roll out climate stress tests and climate risks continue to grow, understanding how to undertake informative climate stress tests is becoming increasingly essential. Join us for a live, interactive panel discussion on climate scenarios and stress testing on Thursday May 6, at  3pm BST / 10am ET / 7am PT.

Key Discussion Points:
  • How are central banks incorporating climate stress testing into financial supervisory requirements?
  • What are the different types of scenarios needed for assessing climate risk?
  • What are the key building blocks for climate stress testing? How do they fit together?
Speakers:
  • Carmelo Salleo, Head of Division, Stress Test Modelling Division, European Central Bank
  • Emilie Mazzacurati, Global Head of Moody's Climate Solutions, Moody's ESG Solutions
  • Burcu Guner, Senior Director-Risk & Finance SME, Moody's Analytics
  • Rahul Ghosh, Managing Director-Outreach & Research, Moody's ESG Solutions (moderator)
Register Here

Moody's Investors Service: Climate Risk for Banks

Moody's Investors Service report, Climate change to force further business model transformation for banks, outlines ways in which carbon transition and physical climate risk will influence banks' risk assessment requirements and present new costs and credits risks for banks. The analysis covers the forthcoming stress testing requirements, discussing their credit implications. 
BIS Resources on Climate Risk for Banks
The Bank for International Settlements released two reports on climate risk, focusing on transmission channels of climate risk to banks and methodologies to measure climate-related financial risks. The report on transmission channels finds that climate risks affects banks through the traditional financial risk categories including market risk, liquidity risk and
operational risk. It underscores the ways in which the impacts of climate risk depend on geography, sector and the economic and financial system and emphasizes the need for more research on how climate risk translates into different types of financial risk. 

The report on measurement tools underscore the needs for granular, forward-looking data on climate-related financial risks, which includes new climate data tools in addition to improved information on counterparty locations. It discusses the early emphasis on risk assessment for near-term transition risk and the need to expand assessments and scenario analysis to include a range of physical climate hazards. The report highlights the increased research focus on translating climate risks into traditional financial risk metrics, noting that much progress to date has focused on credit risk, with market and liquidity risk at even earlier stages. 
Real Assets Exposed to Physical Climate Risk

Moody's Investors Service Adds Climate Data to RMBS Presale Reports

Moody's Investors Service presale and new issues reports for residential mortgage backed securitizations rated out of the US or Europe, now include Four Twenty Seven's physical climate risk scores as an appendix. "While these climate risk scores are not specifically incorporated in our ratings analysis, we believe these additional disclosures will be of great value to market participants," says London-based Moody's Investors Service Senior Vice President Anthony Parry in the press release.

Moody's Investors Service: Climate Hazards Threaten US Seaports

This Moody's Investors Service analysis, Intensifying climate events risk disruptions to seaport operations across the US, leverages Four Twenty Seven's physical climate risk data to assess the exposure of ports to climate hazards including floods, heat stress, hurricanes, sea level rise, water stress and wildfires. It highlights that landlord ports typically have more fixed revenues than port operators, which can reduce the short-term impacts of extreme events. In addition to significant exposure to storms and flooding, West Coast ports often face risks from wildfires, with implications for supply chains and transportation infrastructure. Similarly, while less damaging for the ports themselves, heat stress and water stress can affect agriculture exports, in turn affecting a port's business. Register for free to read the analysis.
Increasing Global Wildfire Potential 

Four Twenty Seven's Peer-Reviewed Research on Wildfire Potential Under Climate Change

2020 was a devastating wildfire year and this year is gearing up to just as hot and dry in many regions. This is a global trend exacerbated by climate change. Four Twenty Seven's article, A global assessment of wildfire potential under climate change utilizing Keetch-Byram drought index and land cover classifications, published in Environmental Research Communications, explores the effects of climate change on global wildfire potential. It shows that by 2040, regions like the American West, Australia and the Amazon will be drier and hotter for much longer than historical averages, experiencing more than 60 additional days of high wildfire potential per year.  

This article provides the detailed methodology behind Four Twenty Seven's publication, Climate Change and Wildfires: Projecting Future Wildfire Potential, which discusses key findings including regional trends and hotspots.

Current Drought & Wildfire Potential in the Western US

Drought contributes to conditions that are conducive to wildfires and also presents significant health and economic risks. In California, farmers are questioning the viability of their businesses and many families are facing depleted and contaminated wells. The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is at 28% of normal, dry conditions are expected to persist through June and the summer is expected to have higher than average temperatures. This all suggests that a dangerous fire season is on the horizon. As the state continues to face these costly climate-driven events, California launched a Climate-Related Risk Disclosure Advisory Group earlier this month, to support the development of a climate risk disclosure standard.

Other Western states are also enduring damaging droughts, with North and South Dakota entirely in drought conditions and parts of Texas, Iowa and Colorado all experiencing drought impacts. Last week the White House launched an Interagency Working Group to focus on addressing the drought conditions in the West and their dire implications for farmers, Tribes and other communities.
Upcoming Events

Join the team online at these upcoming events and check our Events page for updates:

  • May 6 Moody's Webinar on Climate Stress Tests: What You Need to Know: Founder & CEO and Global Head of Moody's Climate Solutions, Emilie Mazzacurati, will present on the drivers behind emerging stress testing requirements. See more details above.
  • May 25 Moody's Investors Service Emerging Markets Summit 2021: Associate Director, Research, John Naviaux, will present on sovereign physical climate risk.
  • Jun 2-4 Green Swan 2021: Emilie Mazzacurati will present during the session on climate-related risks data and accounting. Invitation only. 
  • Jun 22 – Ideas + Action 2021: Sustainability and Resilience: Emilie Mazzacurati will present on the economic implications of climate risk. 
  • Jul 23 – Environmental Business Council of New England Annual Climate Summit: Director, Global Client Services, Lindsay Ross, will present on physical climate risks.
  • Sept 22 2021 CARE Sustainability Conference: Director, Communications, Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme will present on financial climate risk analytics during the panel "Implementation Issues."
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Copyright © 2021 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.
Four Twenty Seven sends a newsletter focused on bringing climate intelligence into economic and financial decision-making for investors, corporations and governments. Fill in the form below to join our mailing list. As data controller, we collect your email address with your consent in order to send you our newsletter. Four Twenty Seven will never share your mailing information with anyone and you may unsubscribe at any moment. Please read our Terms and Conditions.
 

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Newsletter: ECB Releases Stress Test Findings

Four Twenty Seven, an affiliate of Moody's, sends a monthly newsletter highlighting recent developments in climate risk and resilience. 

In Focus: European Central Bank
Climate Stress Tests

The European Central Bank (ECB) Releases Preliminary Climate Stress Test Results, Leveraging Four Twenty Seven Data

Last week the ECB released preliminary results of its climate stress tests, covering about 4 million companies globally and 2,000 banks, which make up nearly all monetary finance institutions in the EU. The assessment looked ahead 30 years, covering physical and transition risk exposure of  EU banks' counterparties. The physical risk assessment is based on Four Twenty Seven's data, and results show that without climate policy, physical risks increase significantly and in turn increase firms' probability of default. "The short-term costs of the transition pale in comparison to the costs of unfettered climate change in the medium to long term," writes ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos. The ECB will continue exploring the results over the course of this year, which will also inform the supervisory climate stress-tests of individual banks in 2022. 
The Financial Times highlights the key findings of the ECB piece, sharing an animated physical risk graphic in this article.
Moody's Analytics on Banks' Climate Risk Assessment and Disclosure
As the ECB lays the groundwork for climate stress tests of individual banks, stress testing and disclosure requirements are picking up globally. In the recent analysis, "How US Banks Are Addressing Climate Risk and Sustainability," Moody's Analytics discusses progress made to date in banks approaches to climate risk, comparing banks' actions in the US and to progress in the rest of the world. The piece also highlights opportunities to take action ahead of mandated disclosure requirements, with potential first steps including benchmarking and conducting portfolio climate risk evaluations and ESG assessments.
Goldman Sachs Leverages Sovereign Physical Climate Risk Data

Four Twenty Seven's Physical Climate Risk Data Will Inform Goldman Sachs' Fixed Income Strategies

Moody’s ESG Solutions Group announced last week that Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Goldman Sachs) has selected Four Twenty Seven's Sovereign Climate Risk Scores for use in its ESG evaluation of sovereign risk. The dataset provides a detailed view of the future exposure of the global population, the economy, and agriculture to a range of physical climate hazards.

Goldman Sachs will use the dataset as an input to its own proprietary Sovereign ESG framework. This assessment of climate risk exposure will be combined with qualitative analysis by Goldman Sachs’ investment teams on countries’ capacities to adapt to physical risks.

“Sovereign bonds are an integral part of our fixed income portfolios, but intrinsic uncertainties make it challenging to quantify the long-term impact of climate change on countries,” said Prakriti Sofat, Executive Director at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Using this dataset will help us assess this evolving risk and reflect it in our investment decisions.”

Public Consultations on Climate Risk

SEC Questionnaire on Climate Risk Disclosure

Last week Acting Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Allison Herren Lee, announced that she's asking staff to evaluate the SEC's climate disclosure guidelines, considering industry feedback. The statement included a detailed questionnaire on climate risk disclosure, open for public comment for 90 days from March 15. Relatedly, last week the Commodity Future Trading Commission announced a new Climate Risk Unit.

FHFA Request for Information on Climate Risk

The US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) opened a request for information on climate and natural disaster risk in the housing finance system, including to the regulated entities: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks. The FHFA will use the information to explore opportunities to strengthen supervision of the regulated entities' climate risk disclosure and management. Respond by April 19.

OSFI Discussion Paper on Preparing for Climate Risk

The Canada Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) released a discussion paper about how federally regulated financial institutions and federally regulated pension plans address the risks of climate change and how OSFI can support these entities' preparedness for these risks. The paper includes 16 consultation questions and is open for public response until April 12.
Four Twenty Seven Partners with Lockton

Lockton Brings Physical Climate Risk Data to its Clients

Four Twenty Seven is pleased to announce a partnership with Lockton, a global independent insurance broker. This partnership will allow Lockton to bring science-driven physical climate data to its broad client base, enabling forward-looking decision-making.
To hear more about climate risk for construction, real estate and insurance, join us tomorrow for Lockton's webinar on Climate Matters: Risk, Resilience and Response at 4pm GMT / 12pm EDT / 9am PDT.
Register Here
Upcoming Events

Join the team online at these upcoming events and check our Events page for updates:

  • Mar. 22-25 Ceres 2021: Four Twenty Seven Founder & CEO and Global Head of Moody's Climate Solutions, Emilie Mazzacurati, will speak on the panel "The New Materiality of Climate Science and What it Means for Investors and Companies."
  • Mar. 25  Climate Matters: Risk, Resilience and Response: Director, Communications, Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme, will present on physical climate risk for real estate during this webinar.
  • Mar. 21 - Apr. 1 Greenlight Climate Festival: Find Your Calling in Sustainability: Director, Global Client Services, Lindsay Ross, will speak on the "Climate Finance" panel.
  • Apr. 8 Moody's Career Insights: Emilie Mazzacurati will speak about the field of climate analytics at this networking event for professionals interested in developing fields such as ESG, climate change and commercial real estate.
  • Apr. 13-14 GreenFin: Emilie Mazzacurati will present.
  • Apr. 14-16 – The Eurofi High Level Seminar: Emilie Mazzacurati will present on the panel "Climate Risk Implications for the EU Financial Sector."
  • Apr. 22 Villanova Rooted in Sustainability Webinar - ESG & Climate: What Investors Want: Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme will present on climate risk.
  • Apr. 26-30 2021 Virtual Wall Street Green Summit: Emilie Mazzacurati will speak on the panel "ESG Data Reporting and Software Solutions."
  • Sept 22 2021 CARE Sustainability Conference: Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme will present on financial climate risk analytics during the panel "Implementation Issues."
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Copyright © 2021 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.
Four Twenty Seven sends a newsletter focused on bringing climate intelligence into economic and financial decision-making for investors, corporations and governments. Fill in the form below to join our mailing list. As data controller, we collect your email address with your consent in order to send you our newsletter. Four Twenty Seven will never share your mailing information with anyone and you may unsubscribe at any moment. Please read our Terms and Conditions.
 

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Goldman Sachs Selects Moody’s ESG Solutions Dataset on Sovereign Climate Hazards

Goldman Sachs is leveraging Moody’s ESG Solutions data on sovereign physical climate risk, powered by Four Twenty Seven, to inform its fixed income strategy. Read the press release from Moody’s:

LONDON – (BUSINESS WIRE) – Moody’s ESG Solutions Group announced today that Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Goldman Sachs) has selected Sovereign Climate Risk Scores powered by Moody’s affiliate Four Twenty Seven for use in its ESG evaluation of sovereign risk. The dataset provides a detailed view of the future exposure of the global population, the economy, and agriculture to a range of physical climate hazards.

As the impact of climate factors such as higher temperatures, drought, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather events are expected to increase over time, Goldman Sachs will use the dataset as an input to its own proprietary Sovereign ESG framework. This assessment of climate risk exposure will be combined with qualitative analysis by Goldman Sachs’ investment teams on countries’ capacities to adapt to physical risks.

“Sovereign bonds are an integral part of our fixed income portfolios, but intrinsic uncertainties make it challenging to quantify the long-term impact of climate change on countries,” said Prakriti Sofat, Executive Director at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Using this dataset will help us assess this evolving risk and reflect it in our investment decisions.”

The Sovereign Climate Risk Scores launched in December and are the only known dataset matching physical climate risk exposure to population location, GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) and agricultural areas within countries, with detailed metrics including both percent exposed and total amount exposed to each climate hazard. Understanding multiple dimensions of sovereigns’ exposure to floods, heat stress, hurricanes & typhoons, sea level rise, water stress and wildfires informs targeted risk management strategies.

“Understanding exposure to physical climate hazards is critical for investors and credit institutions in order to price climate risk, and also to help direct finance flows towards adaptation and resilience where they’re most needed,” says Emilie Mazzacurati, Global Head of Moody’s Climate Solutions in Moody’s ESG Solutions Group. “We’re extremely pleased that Goldman Sachs has chosen to use our new dataset to enhance its ESG evaluation of sovereign risk.”

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Read our report, Measuring What Matters: A New Approach to Assessing Sovereign Climate Risk to learn more about Four Twenty Seven’s physical climate risk data for sovereigns.

Moody’s Launches Comprehensive Suite of Climate Solutions

Moody’s launches its new Climate Solutions Suite incorporating physical and transition climate risk data into Moody’s best-in-class risk management solutions and economic models. Read the press release from Moodys:

LONDON- (BUSINESS WIRE) – Moody’s ESG Solutions Group today announced the launch of Climate Solutions, a comprehensive product suite that provides market participants with enhanced risk measurement and evaluation tools to better understand, quantify and manage climate risks and opportunities. Climate Solutions incorporates physical and transition risk into Moody’s best-in-class risk management solutions and economic models to enable banks, insurers and investors to better assess climate risks and comply with the emerging regulatory requirements for stress testing and disclosures.

“Climate change has a profound impact on the world’s economies and societies,” said Mark Kaye, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Sponsor of Moody’s ESG Solutions Group. “Moody’s is committed to offering science-driven, objective analytics to advance strategic resilience and to help market participants navigate the transformation to a low-carbon, climate-resilient future.”

Powered by Moody’s affiliates Four Twenty Seven, a leader in climate risk data, and V.E, a leading global provider of ESG research, data and assessments, Moody’s Climate Solutions includes:

  • Forward-looking, physical and transition climate risk assessments for over 5,000 listed companies and more than 10 million real estate properties; dynamic, on-demand scoring for listed and unlisted companies, and SME support in risk identification, reporting and screening are also available;
  • Climate-adjusted Probability of Default (PD) for listed and unlisted companies that leverage Moody’s Analytics award-winning Expected Default Frequency (EDFTM) model to provide consistent, transparent and customizable analysis of the credit impact for physical and transition risk;
  • Macroeconomic Climate Risk Scenarios, based on Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model and the Network for Greening the Financial System’s representative designations, for assessing physical and transition changes, including an 80-year forecast horizon to support stress testing and risk management needs;
  • Climate Pathway Scenarios to help power insurers’ and pension funds’ asset and liability projections with climate-aligned scenarios to facilitate customers’ efforts to align with Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) and Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) reporting practices; and
  • Powerful, but easy to use TCFD reporting solutions and analytics for banks, pension funds and insurance companies.

“Combining advanced climate know-how with proven models for credit risk and economic forecasts has enabled us to create a sophisticated set of climate risk analytics to support the systematic integration of climate change into investment and risk management decisions,” said Emilie Mazzacurati, Global Head of Moody’s Climate Solutions. “Our solutions support growing market needs for robust modelling of climate risks and their financial impacts.”

To learn more, visit Moody’s Climate Solutions.

Four Twenty Seven Announces Partnership With Lockton

March 8, 2021 – BERKELEY, CA – Four Twenty Seven’s data is now available through Lockton, a global independent insurance broker.

As part of a long-term commitment to protect clients as the effects of climate change take their toll, Lockton works with insurers to develop and deliver innovative insurance products, designed to meet the needs of the future. Lockton’s broker partnership with Four Twenty Seven enables clients to make decisions based on climate science. The service provides data and analytics required to build resilience and mitigate the risks of climate change.

The partnership will benefit many of Lockton’s clients:

  • Real estate investors can evaluate the long-term risk exposure of portfolio holdings and engage with asset operators to improve resilience and bolster risk management capabilities
  • Property and asset managers can enhance portfolio analysis and monitor risk as investment appetite can change over time. They will also be able to screen assets for their exposure to climate hazards pre-acquisition
  • Banks can identify the climate-related risks in commercial and residential mortgage portfolios, incorporating these risks into their loan acquisition appraisals

Steve Rust, Global Real Estate and Construction Partner at Lockton, commented: “Right now, it’s more important than ever for the real estate and construction sectors to better prepare themselves for the great risk that climate change holds globally. By harnessing the power of data, especially in relation to locations, Four Twenty Seven can help us additionally support clients with invaluable awareness of long-term climate risks, allowing them to make better informed decisions, and plan a strategy for the future. This is an exciting opportunity and we look forward to building a productive, forward-thinking partnership.”

Emilie Mazzacurati, Global Head of Moody’s Climate Solutions and Founder & CEO of Four Twenty Seven, commented: “Understanding an asset’s exposure to hazards such as floods, storms and wildfires is critical to risk management processes, including decisions around insurance and asset-level resilience investments. We’re delighted to partner with Lockton to help a broader range of stakeholders access forward-looking information on their climate risk exposure.”

Read Lockton’s announcement.

Newsletter: The Impacts of “Global Weirding”

Four Twenty Seven, an affiliate of Moody's, sends a monthly newsletter highlighting recent developments in climate risk and resilience. 

In Focus: Deadly Winter Storm in Texas

Devastating Extremes Highlight the Need for Equitable Resilience

 

In the massive disaster still unfolding in Texas after temperatures have returned to average, dozens were killed and many more are still suffering with lack of clean drinking water, home repairs from burst frozen pipes, and exorbitant energy bills, among other challenges. While scientists are still exploring the connection between a warming Arctic and frigid conditions spreading south, the scientific community agrees that climate change will bring more extreme conditions. The widespread power outages in Texas underscore the dire need to implement a diverse set of adaptation measures to prepare for a range of extreme events, including heat waves and storms. Weatherization of power plants and energy infrastructure, alongside improvements to home insulation can help prepare for extreme temperatures on either end of the spectrum.

This disaster also underscores the disproportionate impacts of extreme events on low-income residents and people of color, who are less likely to have backup generators or disposable income and more likely to lose critical wages from missing shifts during the storm. Likewise, in Texas, residents that shared energy circuits with critical facilities such as hospitals often kept their power during the storm, but these facilities are not usually in Black and Hispanic communities. These challenges aren't unique to Texas. In Louisiana, residents still homeless or suffering from two hurricanes last fall were also hit by extreme cold, facing yet another challenge to their survival, and there are similar stories after disasters across the country.

Earlier this month the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission did announce plans to create a senior position focused on environmental justice and equity, which could be a small step toward including these critical issues in decision-making about national energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, the New York State Department of Financial Services took an important step by announcing plans to incentivize climate resilience investment in low-to-moderate income communities.
Financial Regulators Act on Climate

Ongoing Efforts to Address the Financial Risks of Climate Change

Central banks and financial regulators around the world continue to announce developments in their plans to address climate risk. This month the E.U. made additional progress, while the US began to make up for lost time. The UK also released a consultation on its updated draft climate risk disclosure legislation for pensions based on last fall's consultation responses.

The Eurosystem's 19 central banks, as well as the European Central Bank committed to releasing TCFD-aligned climate risk disclosures for their investment portfolios within the next two years. Meanwhile, the French Ministry of Economy, Finance and Growth consulted on updates to its landmark climate risk disclosure law, Article 173. The draft guidance provides more concrete recommendations around forward-looking disclosures for climate and biodiversity related risks including scenario analysis and financial metrics.

Earlier this month the San Francisco Federal Reserve published an Economic Letter explaining its approaches to climate-related risks relating to supervision and regulation as well as financial stability. It outlined recent global efforts to address this risk and explained the Fed's own approach, emphasizing the value of scenario analysis for individual financial institutions and of stress tests as a tool for assessing potential climate impacts on the financial system more broadly. Meanwhile, Treasury Security Yellen has established a new Treasury climate "hub," and is currently seeking to find its leader. The likely candidate, Sarah Bloom Raskin, has served both as a deputy Treasury secretary and on the Federal Reserve Board.
Every Region Has its Climate Risks

The New York Times on Global Populations' Exposure to Climate Hazards, Featuring Four Twenty Seven Data

Every region has its own set of climate risk exposures and how this risk creates adverse impacts depends upon the population and economic activity exposed, as well as any climate adaptation measures in place. Based on Four Twenty Seven's data about 90% of the global population will be exposed to at least one climate hazard by 2040, and the New York Times' interactive story brings these findings to life, with additional context about each region.

Climate Risk by Community Type in the US

In the US there is a growing field of research exploring the overlay between community characteristics and their exposure to climate hazards. From demographics and resources to economic composition, many factors influence communities' vulnerability to climate hazards and their ability to prepare. The American Communities Project explores how climate hazards in the US correspond to different community types, leveraging Four Twenty Seven's data. The analysis highlights the significant exposure to sea level rise in "Military Posts," and exposure to extreme rainfall in "Working Class County" and "Middle Suburbs," as well as several other key findings and the potential implications of these exposure trends.
Climate Change & Sustainability Resources for Investors

Climate Opportunities and Risks in an Altered Investment Landscape

In this year's Megatrends report, Weathering Climate Change, PGIM provides a deep dive into the many ways climate risk can affect institutional investors, including a briefer on the climate science, an investor survey and a discussion of ways to integrate climate change into investment decision-making. It highlights risks and opportunities across asset classes, including fixed income, equities, real estate and infrastructure, and explores portfolio implications, with analysis from Four Twenty Seven.

Sustainable Bond Insights 2021

This year's Sustainable Bond Insights compiled by Environmental Finance, provides a review of 2020's green and sustainable bond issuance and looks forward to the year ahead. Moody's ESG Solutions and Moody's Investors Service contributed a chapter highlighting three trends to watch this year: increased issuance by governments and agencies; the rise of sustainability-linked financing; and climate risk and resilience in the bond market. 
We're Hiring! Join Moody's ESG Solutions
There are several opportunities to join Moody's ESG Solutions dynamic team. See the open positions below and visit Moody's Careers page for more information.
Upcoming Events

Join the team online at these upcoming events and check our Events page for updates:

  • Mar. 4 –  Climate Change and Your Business: A Conversation with Emilie Mazzacurati: Global Head of Moody’s Climate Solutions and Founder & CEO of Four Twenty Seven, Emilie Mazzacurati, will present on the business risks of climate change.
  • Mar. 10 Environmental Social Justice Webcast: Director, Communications, Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme, will discuss opportunities to leverage climate risk analytics to build corporate and community resilience.
  • Mar. 22-25 Ceres 2021: Emilie Mazzacurati will speak on the panel "The New Materiality of Climate Science and What it Means for Investors and Companies."
  • Apr. 14-16 – The Eurofi High Level Seminar: Emilie Mazzacurati will present on the panel "Climate Risk Implications for the EU Financial Sector."
  • Sept 22 2021 CARE Sustainability Conference: Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme will present on financial climate risk analytics during the panel "Implementation Issues."
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Copyright © 2021 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.
Four Twenty Seven sends a newsletter focused on bringing climate intelligence into economic and financial decision-making for investors, corporations and governments. Fill in the form below to join our mailing list. As data controller, we collect your email address with your consent in order to send you our newsletter. Four Twenty Seven will never share your mailing information with anyone and you may unsubscribe at any moment. Please read our Terms and Conditions.
 

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Newsletter: The US prioritizes climate change

Four Twenty Seven, an affiliate of Moody's, sends a monthly newsletter highlighting recent developments in climate risk and resilience. This month we discuss the Biden Administration's climate policy, share new climate change records and include recent books on climate risk in the financial sector. 

In Focus: Climate Risk a Priority in the US

First Week Signals Biden Administration's Commitment to Climate Action 

The Biden Administration has named climate changes as one of four top priorities, alongside the COVID-19 pandemic, racial justice and the economic crisis. Beyond rejoining the Paris Agreement, several of Biden's executive orders in his first week in office relate directly to climate, while others have significant implications for the environment. For example, in an executive order on public health and the environmental, federal agencies are mandated to comply with Obama-era regulations prioritizing climate change adaptation and resilience rolled back by Trump. Further, one of his first executive orders stated that regulatory reviews should promote concerns such as public health, environmental stewardship, racial justice and the interests of future generations rather than focusing on a cost-benefit analysis, which typically fails to fully recognize non-economic  benefits. There have been several key climate appointments and climate has emerged as a critical issue across many agencies, so this will remain a space to watch in the coming months.

The US Financial Regulators Begin to Move on Climate

On Monday the Senate approved Janet Yellen for treasury secretary, after she committed last Tuesday that the Treasury would examine the financial risks of climate change and appoint a senior official to lead climate initiatives. Meanwhile, this week the Federal Reserve announced a climate committee with a mission to "assess the implications of climate change for the financial system — including firms, infrastructure and markets in general." The central bank has slowly been increasing its participation in the dialogue on climate risk and this step signals that it may be starting to truly prioritize the issue.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which regulates Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks, issued a Request for Input on climate risk for its regulated entities. The consultation asks about identifying climate risks and about options to integrate climate risk management into the FHFA's regulatory framework. Respond by April 19.
Climate Records Broken Repeatedly
There was a record 50 billion-dollar extreme weather events endured globally in 2020, with a total of $268 billion in total economic losses according to Aon. While the most costly disaster last year was the summer monsoon flooding in China, causing $35 billion in damage, the majority of the damage from extreme weather was in the US.

It's thus fitting that this past year also ties with 2016 for the hottest year on record, even during a La Niña event, which is a phase in the global climate cycle that typically leads to cooler years. The seven years we just experienced are the seven warmest years on record.

Meanwhile, scientists continue to increase our understanding of glacier dynamics and the implications for global sea level rise. A paper published on Monday found that global sea ice, glaciers and ice sheets are melting 57% faster than they were three decades ago.
Physical Climate Risk for Sovereigns

Four Twenty Seven Analysis: Over 25% of the world's population in 2040 could be exposed to severe heat stress and 57% of the economy could be exposed to flooding 

More frequent and severe extreme events driven by climate change pose a significant threat to populations and economies around the world and understanding who and what is exposed to climate hazards is essential to pricing this risk and preparing for its impacts. Four Twenty Seven's report, Measuring What Matters: A New Approach to Assessing Sovereign Climate Risk, builds on new analytics assessing sovereign exposure to floods, heat stress, hurricanes and typhoons, sea level rise, wildfires, and water stress based on the only known global dataset matching physical climate risk exposure to locations of population, GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) and agricultural areas within countries. 
Read the Analysis
The Latest Books on Climate Risk & Sustainable Finance 

Values at Work: Sustainable Investing and ESG Reporting,

This recent book highlights the latest research on sustainability topics of growing interest to investors, including climate change, pollution, diversity, governance, economic inequality and others. Four Twenty Seven wrote a chapter titled “Asset-Level Physical Climate Risk Disclosure.” The chapter discusses the need for consistent, comparable metrics for physical risk disclosure, using the pharmaceutical sector as a case study to examine climate risk disclosure versus climate risk exposure. 

Carbon Risk and Green Finance

This new book provides a comprehensive primer on both physical and transition climate risks as financial risks. It covers the emergence of reporting frameworks and mandatory disclosure laws in recent years. The latter portion examines the datasets and approaches that can be leveraged to assess and report climate risk, including emerging topics such as climae stress testing and scenario analysis, citing Four Twenty Seven.
Climate Change, Real Estate and
the Bottom Line

Webinar Recording

How will climate hazards like sea level rise and flooding affect real estate and how is the industry preparing? In this webinar in the Goodwin and MIT Center for Real Estate series, The Path to Tomorrow, Global Head of Climate Solutions at Moody's and Founder & CEO of Four Twenty Seven, Emilie Mazzacurati, joins insurance and finance professionals to discuss climate risk for real estate developers, investors and owners.
What the Recording
Upcoming Events

Join the team online at these upcoming events and check our Events page for updates:

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Copyright © 2021 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.
Four Twenty Seven sends a newsletter focused on bringing climate intelligence into economic and financial decision-making for investors, corporations and governments. Fill in the form below to join our mailing list. As data controller, we collect your email address with your consent in order to send you our newsletter. Four Twenty Seven will never share your mailing information with anyone and you may unsubscribe at any moment. Please read our Terms and Conditions.
 

Our mailing address is:
Four Twenty Seven
2000 Hearst Ave
Ste 304
Berkeley, CA 94709









Moody’s Launches DataHub, Collating Billions of Data Points for Decision-Makers to Explore and Analyze

Moody’s launches a new data platform, DataHub, providing data on corporates, real estate and macroeconomic variables, including climate, ESG and credit risk across asset classes. Read the press release from Moody’s:

NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO) today announced the launch of Moody’s DataHub, a new cloud-based analytical platform that integrates data from across Moody’s, including its affiliates. Moody’s DataHub enables financial and risk decision-makers to explore, analyze and consume a wide range of relevant information seamlessly and efficiently.

“With Moody’s DataHub, we are bringing our vast assets together to support today’s data science and analytic needs,” said Stephen Tulenko, President of Moody’s Analytics. “Moody’s is helping customers seamlessly analyze financial and nonfinancial information, combining structured and unstructured data to support better decisions.”

Moody’s DataHub provides access to billions of data points to inform more holistic risk management and investment decisions. Coverage includes:

  • Over 4.5 million active and historical ratings from Moody’s Investors Service
  • Default and recovery data dating back to 1920 covering more than 800,000 securities and 59,000 issuers
  • Probabilities of default for more than 60,000 publicly traded firms from Moody’s CreditEdge
  • Nearly 400 million private and public entities from Bureau van Dijk’s Orbis database
  • More than 5,000 ESG assessments from V.E, part of Moody’s ESG Solutions Group
  • Climate risk scores for over 5,000 companies and 200 sovereigns from Four Twenty Seven, part of Moody’s ESG Solutions Group
  • Over 40 million loans underlying US RMBS, CMBS, and CDO transactions
  • 30-year forecasts of more than 2,100 major macroeconomic variables from Moody’s Analytics U.S. Macro Forecast Database

Moody’s DataHub delivers cross-referenced datasets in a centralized area with sophisticated analytical capabilities. The platform facilitates a holistic view of risks and opportunities related to credit, real estate investments, and climate, and provides essential inputs for Know Your Customer (KYC) onboarding and compliance screening, master data management, and entity resolution.

Easily accessible data previews, along with a readily available data dictionary and documentation, allow users to explore and efficiently interact with Moody’s datasets. Using Moody’s DataHub’s advanced tools, customers can discover and transform data while collaborating in secure environments, blending Moody’s data with their own to create engineered products and services.

“Moody’s DataHub gives customers transparency and control, and the platform was designed to facilitate rigorous data analysis while being straightforward to use,” said Mr. Tulenko. “We will continue to add datasets to the platform and will enhance its analytical capabilities in line with our commitment to deliver market-leading solutions for decision-makers.”

For more information on Moody’s DataHub and a full list of the datasets currently available through the platform, please visit the website.