What are businesses doing to prepare for climate change?

Climate change has brought millions of dollars of damages to businesses over the past years, yet little is known about how businesses are preparing and planning for the physical impacts of climate change going forward.

Four Twenty Seven, in partnership with the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) and with support from Business for Social Responsibility (BSR), have launched the first annual State of Corporate Adaptation survey. The survey will provide a timely analysis of how businesses are addressing the need to adapt complex business operations to a changing climate.


  • How are global corporations preparing for climate change impacts?
  • What are the most pressing climate risks for your sector?
  • How are your competitors planning for extreme weather events?
  • What climate impacts should you be monitoring and why?

These are some of the questions at the heart of our research – this year’s answers and analysis will provide valuable insight for companies struggling to prioritize sustainability activities and will create a solid foundation to advance best practices in corporate adaptation.

While the public, nonprofit and philanthropic sectors have made great strides on issues associated with adaptation planning and implementation in recent years, the status of resilience building in the private sector is unclear at best. The CDP has successfully motivated some companies to prioritize transparency in sustainability reporting, however, as our climate continues to change, it becomes more and more imperative that we have a collective understanding of current corporate adaptation activities and the barriers that are inhibiting real progress.

Understanding how the private sector is preparing for the impacts of climate change is crucial to socio-economic resilience at large.
Climate adaptation will require public-private sector collaboration.

As our understanding of global climate risks continues to grow, companies are struggling to efficiently prepare for climate induced shocks and stressors that threaten global economic stability. In recent years, the CDP supply-chain analysis has shown that more than 70 percent of corporate respondents anticipate that climate impacts will disrupt their supply chains.

Our goal is to further our collective understanding of the challenges corporations face when addressing climate risk as well as to highlight best practices and potential strategies that advance resilience building across sectors and communities.

We know that the potential costs of corporate inaction are great. Missed opportunities to reduce recovery costs, increase resilience and leverage public sector adaptation efforts are not only unfortunate, but could greatly diminish the private sector’s ability respond to climate threats in a way that keeps our economy thriving.

The first annual State of Corporate Adaptation survey will create a critical baseline of knowledge for all stakeholders and will highlight the issues that are most critical to corporations striving to stay competitive in a changing climate.

The completely anonymous survey results will be summarized to reveal important insights and will be released in a public report along with practical guidance and ideas for next steps in corporate adaptation at the National Adaptation Forum on May 11th, 2015.

Help support our collective understanding of business climate resilience, take the survey now.

About the partnership:

ND-GAIN is a university research center dedicated to enhancing the world’s understanding of the importance of adaptation and facilitating private and public investments in vulnerable communities, Four Twenty Seven is a climate risk analytics and adaptation firm, and BSR is global nonprofit business network dedicated to sustainability. We work with companies and organizations around the globe to address climate risk and build resilience and conduct research to advance these efforts.

For more information on the survey or to provide additional feedback please contact Aleka Seville.

Newsletter: Four Twenty Seven receives EBJ Business Achievement Award


Firm recognized for innovative climate risk application
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Four Twenty Seven & Climate Earth Receive 2014 EBJ Business Achievement Award 

The firms were recognized for their innovative supply chain climate risk management application.

San Diego, Calif. (January 22, 2015) — Four Twenty Seven and Climate Earth are pleased to announce that they were chosen to receive the CCBJ award for Technology Merit: Climate Risk Management and Adaptation. The firms were recognized for launching the first enterprise-quality application enabling large corporations to quickly map and quantify global supply chain risks due to climate change.

“In what is widely regarded as a stable market, a number of companies exceeded the norms of low single-digit growth with double-digit growth or ambitious ventures into new practice areas or technology development,” said Grant Ferrier, president of Environmental Business International Inc. (EBI, San Diego), publisher of Environmental Business Journal (EBJ). EBJ has honored 50 companies for revenue growth, acquisitions, innovative project designs, technology applications, new practice areas, social contributions and industry leadership in 2014.

“Our applications help large corporations quickly identify and quantify risks in their supply chain,” said Emilie Mazzacurati, founder and Chief Executive Officer of Four Twenty Seven. “For companies concerned that extreme weather events will disrupt their supplier network, halt operations, and cost money in lost production and sales, we provide a practical and effective way to manage risk and reduce vulnerability.”

The partnership blends the environmental impacts modeling expertise of Climate Earth with Four Twenty Seven’s ability to screen for climate change impacts and analyze risks and vulnerabilities. Supporting CCRM is the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) that tracks countries’ levels of preparedness to deal with climate disruption and other global shifts.

The 2014 EBJ awards will be presented at a special ceremony at the Environmental Industry Summit XIII in San Diego, Calif. on March 11-13, 2015. The Environmental Industry Summit is an annual three-day executive retreat hosted by EBI Inc.

Have you read our latest blog posts?

  • Five Ways to Improve your Climate Risk Reporting Accurately identifying risks and opportunities and developing a strategic adaptation plan are crucial to a company’s long term’s profitability. How can you better identify climate risks & opportunities, reduce your vulnerability, and improve your reporting score?


  • City Adaptation in the Spotlight The University of Notre-Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) has partnered with the Kresge Foundation to create a new index measuring US cities’ climate change vulnerability and adaptation progress. Five indicators will be identified by resilience experts to determine the most important identifiers of a city’s ability to continue functioning during and bounce back after environmental catastrophe.

Get an early start on the 2015 reporting season!

Our new climate risk Forecasting and Adaptation Strategic Tool (FAST) is a rapid and effective way to screen your operations and reduce vulnerability to climate change risk in your operations.
Get a CDP-ready report with key risk drivers and an estimate of potential financial impacts on your assets and supply chain.
Contact us for a complimentary 30-minute preliminary consultation – 415.930.9090.

Where we’re going

January 27, 2015 – 2015 Business Environment Forum in Portland, OR. Emilie Mazzacurati will present on corporate carbon pricing and risk management.

February 23-25, 2015 – The Climate Leadership Conference in Washington, DC.
Come to our booth for a demo of our applications.

March 11-13, 2015 – EBJ’s Environmental Industry Summit in San Diego, CA
Four Twenty Seven will be presented with a Business Achievement Award.

Copyright © 2018 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.

When Global Warming Brings Snow, Sleet, and Ice.

The recent winter weather that buried Buffalo, NY under more than 5 feet of snow and ground life to a halt should attract the attention of US businesses leaders across the country. Although Buffalo is prone to heavy snowfalls, the long-term outlook for more frequent and severe snowstorms for business is not good. Extreme winter storms in the US have been increasing in frequency and severity over the past 30 years (graph “US winter storm loss trends, 1980-2011”: http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/catastrophes-us), with average annual associated financial losses nearly doubling over that time.

Heavy snowfalls can halt local business activity and cause extensive physical damage. Establishments from businesses to schools and government buildings were barricaded in and could not open their doors. Driving bans were even imposed on several areas. While damage was widespread as the snow was caving in windows, doors, and roofs, some business, like Schmitt’s Collision and Glass and VSP Marketing Graphics Group, had complete cave-ins and equipment losses approaching $1 million. Even the Bills-Jets NFL game was moved to Detroit, losing the Bills both home advantage and ticket sales revenue.


An extreme snowfall can also initiate indirect economic losses and cascade into supply chain disruptions. One hour down the blocked NY State Throughway, Rochester companies have had difficulty receiving shipments from normal supply routes and have scrambled to find replacement goods with varying degrees of success. Buffalo is home to major distributors for businesses such as the area’s major supermarket chain Wegmans. The snowfall has impacted the heavily used trucking route that runs through Buffalo from areas as distant as Wisconsin. Trucking companies are also sending out refrigerated trailers earlier than normal, at an additional cost, to prevent food from freezing because of the extreme cold.

Weather forecasts predict the snowfall to be followed by warmer weather and rain, which could lead to severe flooding from snow melt. Flood warnings have been issued as light rain and temperatures in the 50s and 60s threaten to flood areas that have never been at risk of flood before. Governor Cuomo commented on the new dangers arising from the snow melt and recommended people to leave at-risk homes early:

“Err on the side of caution…Flooding, in my opinion, is worse than dealing with snow,” Cuomo said. “It’s not water. It’s a toxic brew.”

Although it seems counter-intuitive, these winter storms are not getting worse despite global warming, but rather because of it. The complexity of this result illustrates how confusing climate change signals can be and the importance of creating accurate awareness. Scientists point to a weakening of the jet stream, the Earth’s halo of fast moving air, caused by warming in the arctic outpacing that of the rest of the world. A slower jetstream tends to meander and is more easily pushed off track, bringing warm air further north and cold air further south as its normally straight flow forms waves.

vortex1114Experts trace the recent jet stream wanderings to Typhoon Nuri. The typhoon pushed the jet stream off course and north with a large body of warm air as it moved into the northern Pacific. As the air current bulged northward, arctic air downstream had nowhere to go but south, pushing the jet stream ahead of it over the continental US. Events like this year’s “Arctic Blast” and last year’s famous “Polar Vortex” will be more easily triggered by climate change-weakened jet streams. This chain of events, along with a Lake Erie’s warming by long-term climatic changes, caused the flow of very cold air to pick up additional moisture and dump it on Buffalo as “lake effect” snow. Energy from Typhoon Nuri then proceeded to be carried down the jet stream to Buffalo, resulting in the warming spell that causes flooding. (See Al Jazeera’s excellent in-depth explanation of this phenomenon).

As the climate continues to change, events like these are predicted to become regular occurrences and not outlying record-setting events. Businesses need to ready themselves for a future of 6-foot snowfalls and be better prepared to act quickly.

Image: (c) Munich Re, Getty Images, and AccuWeather.com

[Webinar] Tools and Concepts to Manage Climate Risks in Global Supply Chains

Tools and Concepts to Manage Climate Risks in Global Supply Chains

Watch the recorded webinar

Global shifts like population growth, natural resource constraints and extreme weather are creating new challenges for corporations with global supply chains, causing disruptions, delays and cost increases. Sustainability and risk management professionals will play a crucial role in identifying, quantifying and mitigating risks arising from hazards like coastal storms, droughts, fires and floods.

This webinar from September 2014 gives participants both a practical framework to understand the impacts of climate change on businesses and supply chains, and the tools to assess and manage supply chain climate risk. Key topics include corporate climate risk management and adaptation, modeling the supply chain, country climate risk index, and commodity exposure to climate change.


  • Michael Gillenwater, Greenhouse Gas Management Institute
  • Emilie Mazzacurati, Four Twenty Seven, Inc.
  • Jessica Hellmann, Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index
  • Chris Erickson, Climate Earth, Inc.



Four Twenty Seven helps investorsFortune 500 companies and government institutions understand how to quantify and monetize climate change impacts on operations as well as social factors that affect their value chain. Our clients rely on Four Twenty Seven’s tools and models to factor into financial and operational planning processes. Learn more about how we are helping our clients assess and adapt to climate risks.

Newsletter: Tools and Concepts


Tools to Manage Climate Risks
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Tools to Manage Climate Risks

Big data meets big storms as US cities bear intense and untimely floods. 

Record-breaking rainfall this past week paralyzed transportation hubs and gridlocked the flow of people, goods and services across the Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the country. Such events, which are occurring in ever-greater frequency, have prompted the White House to launch the Climate Data Initiative,  a public-private partnership effort to unleash a lineup of government data resources and tools to help farmers, communities and cities better understand their exposure and sensitivity to climate change. These free and open maps and apps are rolling out at data.gov/climate.

This new data comes on top of the new federal resources, grants and tools specifically intended to help local communities prepare for climate impacts announced mid-July by President Obama. Adaptation strategies must be informed by local conditions and site-specific data in order to be successfully implemented – one of the reasons this new federal funding is so critical.
Read more about our analysis on climate risk tools in our blog post: Obama Commits to Building Resilience – From the Ground Up. 

Tools and Concepts to Manage Climate Risks in Global Supply Chains

Global shifts like population growth, natural resource constraints and extreme weather are creating new challenges for corporations with global supply chains, causing disruptions, delays and cost increases.

Four Twenty Seven is hosting a free webinar to discuss these issues, “Tools and Concepts to Manage Climate Risks in Global Supply Chains,” in partnership with Climate Earth, Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) and the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute (GHGMI).
The webinar will provide:
1) A practical framework to understand climate change risk
2) A look inside the quantitative tools that map and assess  climate risk in a supply chain

Join us for this hour-long, informative session:
September 17th at 11:00 am Pacific / 2 pm Eastern Standard Time or
September 19th at 9:00 am China Standard Time / 11:00 am Australia Eastern Time.
Click here to register.

Four Twenty Seven News: Meet the Team

Nik Steinberg joins Four Twenty Seven as a Senior Climate Analyst. Nik is an expert in environmental data analysis and natural resources management. His experience lies in integrating climate change into decision-making and risk management processes through innovative assessment methodologies and risk modeling tools. Nik has worked in South Asia, Latin America, and California with various development and regulatory agencies guiding the hydrological component of climate change analysis and impact evaluation.With Four Twenty Seven, Nik will lead the development of climate risk screening tools for corporate partners seeking to predict and better understand the impacts of climate change. 

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Find Us

Join us for the California Adaptation Forum in Sacramento, CA on August 19-20. Four Twenty Seven leads two exciting panels: Public Private Cross-Pollination in climate adaptation finance (Tue 10:30 am) and Innovations in supply chain climate risk management (Wed 3:30 pm).

We will also be at the Building the Resilient City Conference in San Francisco, CA September 4-5 and the 5th Annual Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference in Seattle, WA, September 9-10.

Last but not least, don’t miss ACCO’s Rising Seas Summit in New York, NY, September 24-56 where Four Twenty Seven will co-teach a bootcamp on materiality assessment and climate risk disclosure.



About Four Twenty Seven

Four Twenty Seven provides innovative tools and services to organizations seeking to understand climate impacts, assess risks to their operations or their stakeholders, and increase their resilience by developing and implementing climate adaptation measures. Email or call if your organization needs help with its climate strategy!

Copyright © 2018 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.



Newsletter: Addressing Climate Risks


Ignoring Climate Change is a Risky Business
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Ignoring Climate Change is a Risky Business


But if the costs of inaction are clear, identifying the right steps to reduce climate risk exposure can be more daunting. 

The Risky Business report released on June 24 provides the most comprehensive assessment of the economic risks our nation faces from the changing climate. The report forecasts costs in the billions of dollars for the most exposed sectors and infrastructure – and that’s just over the next 5-15 years.

Yet for many businesses, the question today is not whether they should look at climate risk, but how. Which facilities? Which commodities? Which countries? And what to do?

At Four Twenty Seven, we’ve developed a methodology to quantify the relative sensitivity of businesses to climate change that captures both their reliance on natural systems and their exposure to weather variability. Our model helps companies understand their vulnerabilities and where to focus their adaptation resources internally. Contact us to discuss how we can help.

Our Supply Chain Climate Risk application, developed in partnership with Climate Earth and the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) enables large corporations to quickly map and quantify global supply chain risks due to climate change. We are looking for beta-users – Contact us for a demo!

Read more about the report and our analysis on corporate climate risk in our blog post: Risky Business: Taking Stock, and Taking Action.

Four Twenty Seven News: Growing Team…

Aleka Seville joins Four Twenty Seven as Director of Climate Advisory with outstanding experience in program and policy development, public-private partnership building and stakeholder engagement. Her specific expertise is in the value of cross-sector collaboration to leverage scarce resources, align climate and economic goals, and implement strategic policy solutions. In her role at Four Twenty Seven, Aleka will work directly with local governments, philanthropic and corporate partners to provide guidance and help organizations understand climate risk and develop solutions.

and Growing Reach!
Four Twenty Seven was selected as a finalist for the prestigious Cartier Women’s Initiative Awards. Finalists were selected from a pool of 1900 applicants from 15 countries, and Four Twenty Seven is one of three finalists for North America. The Awards sheds light on new businesses that have created ethical, sustainable and scalable solutions to pressing social challenges. The selection reflects the importance of bringing innovation to climate change risk management in the private sector.

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Upcoming Events:

Join us for the California Adaptation Forum in Sacramento, CA on August 19-20.
Four Twenty Seven leads two exciting panels:

Public Private Cross-Pollination in climate adaptation finance
Innovations in supply chain climate risk management.

Register before the early bird expires!



About Four Twenty Seven

Four Twenty Seven provides innovative tools and services to organizations seeking to understand climate impacts, assess risks to their operations or their stakeholders, and increase their resilience by developing and implementing climate adaptation measures. Email or call if your organization needs help with its climate strategy!

Copyright © 2018 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.



Risky Business: Taking Stock, and Taking Action.

In 2006, the British government released the world’s first and most comprehensive assessment of the economic impacts of climate change, led by economist Nicholas Stern. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change was instrumental in establishing unequivocally the link between physical impacts of climate change and our economics, and helped dramatically shift the conversation on greenhouse gas mitigation.

Eight years later, the United States now has its own Stern Review. Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States provides the most comprehensive assessment of the economic risks our nation faces from the changing climate. The report focuses on the clearest and most economically significant of these risks: damage to coastal property and infrastructure from rising sea levels and increased storm surge, climate-driven changes in agricultural production and energy demand, and the impact of higher temperatures on labor productivity and public health.

Short Term Costs in the Billions

Screenshot 2014-06-25 01.17.42Let’s start with some of the short-term impacts – in climate-speak, short term is anytime between tomorrow and the next 15 years. The East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico will likely see an increase in the annual cost of coastal storms and hurricanes of $7.3 billion, bringing the total annual price tag to $35 billion on average. The agricultural sector in the Midwest and South may see decline in yields of more than 10% over the next 5 to 25 years if they don’t ‘adapt’ their crops and cultivation methods to the new climatic environment. Increases in temperature, heat waves and humidity will drive up demand for energy, calling for the equivalent of 200 new power plants across the country, which could cost up to $12 billion a year.

Long-Term Impacts Significant Threat to Property and Lives

As if this weren’t enough, the long-term projections present an even direr outlook. In the Northeast, the projected costs of sea level rise are estimated at $9 billion in property loss each year, directly affecting 88 percent of the region’s population. In the Midwest, extreme heat is expected to last an additional two months by the end of the century, resulting in a 73 percent loss in crop yields. In the Southeast, extreme heat is expected to last an additional four months by the end of the century, placing significant pressure on labor productivity, electricity costs and capacity, and could lead to 11,000 to 36,000 additional deaths each year in the region.

The report also makes the important connection between financial capital and human capital, providing estimates on the changing patterns of labor productivity and human health as a result of climate change. To quantify the potential impacts on human health, the report utilizes the Humid Heat Stroke Index, or HHS, to measure the combined stress of heat and humidity on the human body. Findings show that in the Midwest HHS will reach dangerous levels at least two days in each year by the end of the century and by as much as 20 days each year by 2200, during which time it would be impossible to remain outdoors without putting one’s life at risk.

This chart, from the report, offers a striking display of how average summer temperatures could increase if we don’t curb GHG emissions (click to enlarge).

Similar if not more severe temperature predictions are reserved for the South and Southwest where labor productivity could drop by 3.2 percent in key sectors like mining, agriculture, construction, utilities, transportation, and manufacturing. With a focus on average and extreme temperature increases, the report alludes to the challenges of switching from natural gas and oil-driven heating to electricity powered cooling. With the exception of the Northwest, electricity demand and costs across the US are expected to rise between 2 and 7 percent by mid-century. In somewhat uncertain terms, the report refers to greater pressure on the electrical grid system, along with local hospitals, banks, and insurance companies.

Reducing emissions – and more

An immediate and obvious conclusion from the report is the need to ramp up our greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation efforts. The authors’ report administer a healthy dose of the precautionary principle, urging leaders in business, investment, and the public sector to consider the potential material risks of climate change at the regional and national level. Acknowledging the urgency behind climate change and the ever-increasing rate of range, these sectors are urged to reallocate capital to strategic mitigation investments in the short-term.

In the absence of aggressive adaptation measures, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that the threshold for keeping planetary warming at a tolerable level could be as little as 15 years. The Risky Business report effectively conveys this message in business terms and presents the material risks of climate change by highlighting the severe impacts on the US economy and our collective inability to ameliorate such risks in the near future.

Another important take-away is the need to start adapting to climate change – and fast! Even in the most optimistic scenario where the planet successfully contained GHG emissions, we are still bound to experience significant impacts from GHG already accumulated in the atmosphere. But while we have a pretty good sense of how to reduce our GHG emissions – the main hurdle is political, adaptation is a different story altogether.

Managing climate risks: what does it mean for businesses?

It’s one thing to be convinced we need to adapt, it’s another to understand and be able to quantify the many ways climate change may impact a business’s value chain. Climate change can impact businesses in their supply chain, their operations, their manufacturing or production processes, and their distribution network. It can affect the infrastructure businesses need to operate, shift consumer preferences or make products obsolete. The impacts of climate change can be gradual or abrupt, hit tomorrow or in 30 years.

Businesses may at times forget how they depend on ecosystem services, even if they’re not sectors directly dependent on natural resources like agriculture or mining. At the end of the day, businesses (and the humans that run them) all depend on food, fresh water, fiber, fuels, and other biochemical products that nature provides. Certainly, not all sectors are born equal from that standpoint – but the most sophisticated tech products still need water and energy to be manufactured, and minerals to be processed.

The chart below, drawn from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report, illustrates the many ways ecosystems support human and economic activities.

Screenshot 2014-06-25 01.39.36

And finally, not all companies are equipped to respond and rebound from this kind of disruptions. Any modern computers and servers and A/C and telecoms – all of which can be subject to disruption due to extreme weather events and costs increases over time. But some companies have business continuity plans and backup generators, and others may be put out of business by an extended power outage.

Taking Action

These differences can be analyzed, measured, and addressed. At Four Twenty Seven, we’ve developed a methodology to quantify the relative sensitivity of businesses to climate change that captures both their reliance on natural systems (ecological dependencies) and their exposure to weather variability, both in their operations and in their supply chain. We also have tools to assess an organization’s ability to respond to predictable and unpredictable changes.

This diagram illustrates how ecological dependency can vary by sector, hence creating different climate risk profiles for different companies (Source: Four Twenty Seven, Inc.).

Ecological Dependency Diagram
There’s no silver bullet to climate adaptation. But there are practical tools and steps a business can take to understand its exposure to risk, estimate potential costs and develop effective adaptation measures. The Risky Business provides an important economic context for the nation – now it’s time for businesses to start looking at climate risks in their own operations, and focus on building resilience.

By Emilie Mazzacurati and Nik Steinberg

Newsletter: Big Data Meets Climate Change


Announcing a new partnership for Climate Change Risk Management
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Big Data Meets Climate Change 
The conversation in the corporate world is expanding from carbon emission reductions to climate change risk management. But how do you measure climate risk?   

We’re excited to announce that we have partnered with supply chain assessment experts from Climate Earth and the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) to develop an enterprise-quality application enabling large corporations to quickly map and quantify global supply chain risks due to climate change.

The 2014 World Economic Forum called climate change an “economically disruptive force,” and climate-related risks have risen on the agenda of global corporations in the past years. In Davos, in February 2014, Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank, called on corporate leaders to take action: “Be the first mover. Use smart due diligence. (…) It’s simple self-interest. Every company, investor, and bank that screens new and existing investments for climate risk is simply being pragmatic.” Business giants Coke and Nike were recently featured in the New York Times as taking proactive measures to assess and prepare for climate-related disruptions in their supply chain.

Our new CCRM application, launched today at the Climate Leadership Conference in San Diego, CA, is the first in the industry to provide comprehensive mapping and modeling of climate change risk for every commodity across the entire supply chain. Typically implemented in 90 days or less, the CCRM application models all the goods and services that are hidden deep in a company’s supply chain and provides a quantitative assessment of the carbon, energy, and water footprint associated with making its products and running its business. It also maps the country of origin from these goods and services, and provides users with an assessment of the exposure to the physical impacts of climate change. Read on for the press release and the detailed product description.

Companies need better tools to understand and act on climate risks. This application is a first foray into delivering climate intelligence to corporate leaders to support business resilience. Contact us for a demo!

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About Four Twenty Seven

Four Twenty Seven provides innovative tools and services to organizations seeking to understand climate impacts, assess risks to their operations or their stakeholders, and increase their resilience by developing and implementing climate adaptation measures. Email or call if your organization needs help with its climate strategy!

Copyright © 2018 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.



Newsletter: Outlook for Tomorrow’s Carbon Auction


Read our analysis of California’s last auction results
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Logo Four Twenty Seven

Outlook for Tomorrow’s Carbon Auction
Expect lower clearing prices and fewer bidders – but this is all normal for the last auction of the year.  

We expect the 5th auction for California carbon allowances will see fewer bidders, a lower ratio of bids to supply, and a lower clearing price than previous auctions. These are normal developments for the last auction of the year, and in line with recent price trends on the secondary market. We expect the long term prospective will outweigh current concerns regarding market over-allocation, and we anticipate that the reserve price will prevent the auction from being undersubscribed. Read the full outlook and analysis on our blog.

The November 19 auction will see 16,614,526 Vintage 2013 (V13) allowances and 9,560,000 Vintage 2016 (V16) allowances offered for sale at a reserve price of $10.71 a ton. Check our blog on Friday, November 22 after Noon PT for an analysis of the auction results.

Should Climate Risks be Included in Sustainability Reports? 

Historically, sustainability reporting has been largely about the firm’s impact on society and the environment. Is the firm using up a lot of resources? Polluting? How does it impact local communities’ lives and livelihoods? How does it treat its employees? And so much more. Recently though, stakeholders have also been asking for disclosure on risks and opportunities related to climate change. Are the firm’s operations at risk for a Category 5 hurricane? Will its supply chain be impacted by more frequent floods in Bangladesh? How will the firm procure water or agricultural goods in a dryer world? How will it pay for shipping in a world with high carbon prices?

It could be argued that including climate change impacts into sustainability reports turns sustainability reporting on its head: when a firm reports on the impact climate change may have on its operations, supply chain or business model, it is really reporting on the impact of the environment on the firm, not the other way round. So, should climate risks be included in sustainability reports? Read our analysis published on Triple Pundit.

More Publications on Carbon Markets:

  • Lessons Learned from California Cap-and-Trade: It’s not quite one year yet, but it’s never to early to start reflecting on how far we’ve come since the launch of the program. Four Twenty Seven contributed a thought piece to the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) Greenhouse Gas Market 2013 report, published November 13. Our article looks at liquidity, price trends, supply and demand fundamentals, and regulatory challenges ahead – download the pdf.
  • A Primer on California Auctions: our primer Selling California Auctions (Carbon Market Tracker, In Focus #20, May 2013), published jointly with Carbon Credit Capital LLC provides a thorough description of the auction mechanics, participant dynamics, the role of utilities, and the use of auction revenues – a must-read for market participants!

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Copyright © 2018 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.

Sink or Swim in the Carbon Market

About Four Twenty Seven

Four Twenty Seven provides research and consulting services on carbon markets, climate policy and climate risk. Email or call if your organization needs help with its climate strategy!

Logo Operation Supply Chain

Operation Supply Chain Workshop

This week is Operation Supply Chain Workshop in Las Vegas, organized by the Association of Climate Change Officers (ACCO). Emilie Mazzacurati will discuss metrics and indicators to monitor climate risks on November 18, and will teach a bootcamp on tools to quantify climate risks in the supply chain on November 19. Email us to learn more about this issue.


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About our blog

427mt.com/blog is the reference blog for California climate policy. Read us for our thoughtful analysis of key carbon market developments, new regulations, and political trends affecting climate policy and business resilience in California and beyond. Email us with questions or to submit a guest post.