Report: Advancing TCFD guidance on physical climate risks and opportunities

This seminal report aims to inform and support early adoption efforts of climate risk reporting, based on findings from industry-led working groups  from the financial sector and corporations. The report calls on companies to perform forward-looking risk assessments and disclose material exposure to climate hazards. It also invites firms to investigate benefits from investing in resilience and opportunities to provide new products and services in response to market shifts. 

Download the full report

Access conference materials (slides, summary, op-eds)

TCFD recommendations

The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) seeks to “develop recommendations for voluntary climate-related financial disclosures that are consistent, comparable, reliable, clear, and efficient, and provide decision-useful information to lenders, insurers and investors.” It has crystallised a growing concern among investors and business leaders about the physical impacts that climate change could have on the economy and on financial markets.

The TCFD’s initial report noted a lack of understanding about the impact of climate change on corporate value chains and infrastructure, the channels through which these impacts are transmitted to financial markets, and a lack of transparency in reporting these risks. The final report recommended that financial disclosures should include metrics on the physical risks and opportunities of climate change but did not provide detailed guidance on appropriate metrics.

Without formal or regulatory guidance on metrics and indicators, firms are uncertain about what to include in their disclosures. Investors are therefore likely to receive a heterogeneous mix of financial reports including diverse indicators, metrics, assumptions and timeframes, which will fail to provide comparable data across a portfolio or provide the necessary transparency.

Advancing TCFD guidance on physical climate risk and opportunities

Recognising the challenges in the path towards standardising disclosure of physical risks and opportunities related to climate change, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation (GCECA) launched an initiative, “Advancing TCFD guidance on physical climate risk and opportunities.” The initiative aims to work with innovative thinkers in the financial and corporate sectors to identify the greatest needs for guidance, research and development. It also seeks to lay the foundations for a common conceptual framework and a standard set of metrics for reporting physical climate risks and opportunities.

The preliminary guidance in this report aims to build on the TCFD recommendations and provide common foundations for the disclosure of climate-related physical risks and opportunities. The report also identifies areas where further research or market action is needed so that detailed, consistent, industry-specific guidelines can be developed on the methodology for quantifying and reporting these risks and opportunities. The project focused on disclosure metrics that are specific to corporations. Improving the quality of firms’ climate disclosures is not just important for them, but also critical to managing climate risks and opportunities in financial markets.

Project process

This EBRD-GCECA initiative involved three industry working groups of a dozen participants, with a mix of financial institutions (asset owners, asset managers, banks, insurance), corporations, credit rating agencies, and a financial data provider. Each working group met several times over the first half of 2018 to discuss and consider research questions related to the topic on hand. The working groups debated how best to help the market make progress on disclosure.

  • Working group 1: Metrics for physical climate risk management and disclosure.
  • Working group 2: Metrics for climate resilience opportunities.
  • Working group 3: Climate intelligence for business strategy and financial planning.

The recommendations we developed aim to serve a dual purpose, seeking to improve corporations’ understanding of their own exposure and risk profile as well as opportunities arising from climate change, and provide clear signals for financial institutions to understand risks and opportunities implicit in individual holdings as well as portfolio-wide exposures.

The working groups built on the TCFD guidance, existing reporting frameworks, and an extensive review of literature to develop a set of recommendations on physical risks and opportunities. As a general rule, this report has prioritised recommendations that are consistent with current industry practices and that leverage metrics and frameworks already used for financial disclosures. It also includes a mix of recommendations that focus on providing better information, as well as recommendations that require more sophisticated analysis. In line with the TCFD recommendations, the recommendations of this EBRD-GCECA initiative are geared to facilitating comparability across companies within a sector, industry or portfolio, and to promoting disclosure of reliable and verifiable information.

Recommendations

Disclosing physical climate risks

A corporation’s vulnerability to climate impacts goes well beyond the physical exposure of its facilities. It includes supply chains, distribution networks, customers and markets. Furthermore, a company’s resilience to climate impacts depends on its risk management and business plans, as well as its governance.

Figure ES-1. How climate change affects corporate value chains

The impacts of climate change on corporate value chains depend on where the company operates and what impacts may affect relevant locations, but they also depend on the company’s activities. Corporations whose production processes consume high volumes of water, for example, may be particularly sensitive to changes in drought and the availability of water. Similarly, corporations with high energy consumption or significant use of outdoor labour will experience greater challenges as average temperatures rise, affecting both energy costs and labour productivity.

Recommendation 1: Assess exposure to all first-order climate impacts

Corporations should consider all first-order impacts when undertaking a climate risk assessment – heat stress, extreme rainfall, drought, cyclones, sea-level rise and wildfires – and additional climate hazards relevant to their industries, such as ocean acidification for fisheries. Exposure to climate hazards should be assessed at the local scale, using the most recent climate data and literature.

Recommendation 2: Assess climate risks over the duration of an asset’s lifetime or over the lifetime of a financial instrument

This report recommends that corporations provide more detailed information on the location of their critical operations, suppliers and market, at least at the country-level, as part of segment reporting to enable investors and creditors to conduct analysis on exposure to risk in their portfolio.

Firms should consider climate impacts over the following timeframes,

  1. Assess changes in asset performance over the past 5-10 years (or longer) that are attributable to extreme weather events or to climate variability, in order to detect possible impacts from climate change.
  2. Assess potential impacts over the expected lifetime of the asset and/or over the lifetime of the investment or loan.

Recommendation 5:  Disclose the impacts of weather variability on value chains

Corporations with moderate or high sensitivity to variability in temperature and precipitation should identify and disclose whether and how changes in temperature and precipitation have materially affected their performance.

Recommendation 6:  Perform forward-looking assessment climate-related risks

Corporations should disclose 1) their assessment of the types of climate-related risks to which they may be exposed in the future due to the geographic exposure of their facilities and 2) the estimated financial impacts from the risks they have identified as being material.

Recommendation 7: Describe risk management processes for the physical impacts of climate change

Corporations should describe their processes for identifying, assessing and managing the physical risks of climate change, as noted by the TCFD. For these physical impacts, aspects of particular interest to financial institutions and banks include risk management processes, insurance coverage, planned facility moves or retrofits, corporate adaptation strategy, and engagement with local authorities to build climate resilience locally.

Disclosing physical climate opportunities

The TCFD also encourages corporations to disclose opportunities related to the impacts of a changing climate. This recommendation is critical to ensuring that businesses and financial institutions continue to thrive in a changing environment. It is also vital for promoting the healthy development of resilience products and services that cater to new market needs for resilience.

The TCFD defines “climate-related opportunity” as “the potential positive impacts related to climate change on an organisation,” and notes that opportunities “will vary depending on the region, market and industry in which an organisation operates.” This report identifies three broad types of opportunities related to physical climate change impacts:

  1. Opportunities related to managing existing climate-related physical risks
  2. Opportunities to respond to new emerging risks
  3. Opportunities to adapt to market shifts and cater to new market needs

Recommendation 8: Identify opportunities based on managing risks and market shifts

Corporations and financial institutions should strive to identify opportunities in managing existing climate-related risks and responding to emerging risks. Corporations should also assess the potential changes in their value chains, explore potential market shifts as customer needs change and target their products and services to cater to growing demand for adaptation solutions.

Recommendation 9: Assess climate opportunities over timeframes relevant to business planning

Corporations should define the appropriate timescales in which to report opportunities in consultation with their investors. Opportunities in response to managing existing risks that affect recent and current accounts and the next year’s accounts should be reported as part of core financials. Opportunities arising from market shifts are unlikely to be reported quantitatively and are more appropriate for disclosure in general reporting on future business expectations.

Recommendation 10: Disclose business opportunities at the segment level; for critical facilities, disclose resilience benefits at the facility level

Opportunities may be disclosed at different levels to best serve firms and investors. Opportunities due to shifting market demand or new products should be reported at the segment level, in line with risk disclosures. Benefits from managing existing or emerging risks may be disclosed at the segment level (for process or supply-chain improvements, for example). For critical facilities, it may be advantageous for firms to disclose significant resilience upgrades or strategic improvements at the facility level, to showcase good stewardship and provide confidence that critical facilities are protected.

Recommendation 11: Disclose benefits from resilience investments using the same metrics as for risk disclosure

Corporations should acknowledge the importance of accurately accounting for the opportunity effects on their core financials arising from actions to manage current risks and respond to emerging risks. These metrics may include avoided negative impacts on revenues, operating expenses, capital expenses, supply chain costs, value-at-risk, or projected annual average losses.

Recommendation 12: Include business opportunities in qualitative disclosures

The disclosure of opportunities involving market shifts and new products and services can be achieved by qualitative disclosures of the lifecycle of new commercial opportunities. The disclosures may include information on the development stage of endeavours, sector, the size of potential markets, and the length of time until commercial viability.

Scenario analysis for physical climate risks and opportunities

With regard to climate intelligence for business strategy and financial planning, the TCFD recommendations strongly advocate the development and use of scenarios when analysing climate risks and opportunities. In this context, scenario analysis is intended as a tool to address challenges and acquire key information. Scenarios provide a narrative, either qualitative or quantitative, which “describes a path of development leading to a particular outcome.”

Recommendation 13: Consider current and desired GHG concentration pathways and related warming projections as a basis for scenario analysis of physical climate risks and opportunities

Corporations should not be concerned with developing new climate scenarios themselves. Instead, as a basis for their scenario analysis of physical risk, they should consider at least two main types of existing climate scenarios, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

  • Current GHG pathway: National climate policies currently in place around the world are projected to reduce baseline emissions, which would result in warming of about 3.4°C above pre-industrial levels.[i]
  • Desired (‘aspirational’) GHG pathway: These are the scenarios compatible with limiting warming to below 1.5°C by 2100 (with a probability of ≥50 per cent), and to below 2°C in the 21st century (with a probability of about 80 per cent).

Recommendation 14: Integrate scenario analysis of physical climate risks and opportunities into existing planning processes to ensure strategic, flexible and resilient businesses and investments

The main reason to undertake scenario analysis is to obtain a comprehensive assessment from firms of their risks and opportunities. Firms should achieve this by exploring different possibilities of what might happen in the future, despite uncertainty and by integrating climate change considerations into their existing business strategies and financial planning.

Recommendation 15: Avoid standardised scenario analysis in order to have a more comprehensive range of outcomes

Firms should look at more than one scenario and multiple climate models in order to have a more comprehensive range of potential outcomes. Although a degree of comparability is desirable, it is also recommended that corporations develop their own scenarios, which should be highly contextual, and based on the views and values of individual corporations.

Recommendation 16: Consider data from a wide variety of sources and scales when developing scenario analysis of physical climate risks

In order to construct plausible physical climate risk and opportunity scenarios, firms should consider inputs from a wide variety of sources and levels of detail. These include scientific data (not only on climate change), macroeconomic data, socio-economic data, data on political economics and policy, corporate data, ‘vision’ and market analysis data, ‘big data’, and so on.

Recommendation 17: Take account of scientific uncertainty inherent in climate data and in scenario analysis of physical risks and opportunities

Corporations and financial institutions are very well accustomed to making decisions within a large spectrum of uncertainty. In the same way, they should consider and manage the uncertainty that surrounds climate data and climate science for scenario analysis. Scientific uncertainty should be taken into account and made explicit when assessing climate-related financial risks and opportunities.

Recommendation 18: Disclose qualitative information that is relevant to the company and its investors

The ultimate objective in disclosing the use of scenarios is to build investor confidence that a company is meaningfully engaged on the topic of climate change, that it is looking at a broad range of outcomes and is responsive and proactive, rather than defensive and reactive. In this context, firms should disclose information on their climate risks and opportunities in the way that is most appropriate to them, as well as to their investors, and to the type of information disclosed or its format (quantitative or qualitative).

Conclusion

Efforts to formalise and standardise the assessment and disclosure of climate-related risks and opportunities are still in their infancy. As science and business continue to progress in their understanding of climate impacts, the recommendations made in this report will evolve over time, informed by emerging practices and the continuous efforts of corporations, financial institutions, credit rating agencies, industry groups, think-tanks, regulators and governments.

Climate disclosures will remain a topic of active research and discussion, and this report aims to support the emergence of market practices that bring transparency to markets and help build resilience in firms and financial institutions.

The Participants in the Initiative

The EBRD hosted the initiative and funded its technical secretariat.  The GCECA provided a secondment to the technical secretariat. The technical secretariat was provided by Four Twenty Seven, the leading provider of intelligence on climate risk to financial markets, and by Acclimatise, an advisory company specialised in adaptation to climate change.

The expert working groups in the initiative included participants from Agence Française de Développement, Allianz, APG Asset Management, AON, the Bank of England, Barclays, Blackrock, Bloomberg, BNP Paribas, Citi, Danone, the Dutch National Bank, DWS Deutsche AM, European Investment Bank, Lightsmith Group, Lloyds, Maersk, Meridiam Infrastructure, Moody’s, S&P Global Ratings, Shell, Siemens, Standard Chartered, USS and Zurich Alternative Asset Management.

Download the full report

Access conference materials (slides, summary, op-eds)

EBRD to Host Physical Climate Risk Conference on 31 May

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation (GCECA) have announced details of their conference, “Advancing TCFD guidance on physical climate risk & opportunities.”  A culmination of their initiative focused on building climate resilience in the financial sector, the conference will share findings on physical risk and resilience metrics from three expert working groups. Read the press release below, originally published on EBRD’s website:

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Findings of industry working groups will be published ahead of the event “Advancing TCFD guidance on physical climate risk and opportunities”

  • Conference on 31 May to discuss physical climate risk and opportunity disclosure in climate-related financial disclosure reporting. Industry-led working groups to publish findings.
  • Event will advance thinking on how to develop physical climate risk metrics in line with Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) guidance.
  • Conference co-organised by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation (GCECA).

The EBRD and GCECA are hosting an event “Advancing TCFD guidance on physical climate risk and opportunities”, which will be held on 31 May 2018 at the EBRD’s headquarters in London.

Findings about physical climate risk and opportunity disclosure by industry-led working groups, which have been meeting at the EBRD’s headquarters since 2017, will be released at the conference.

This event will build on the recommendations of the TCFD, headed by Mark Carney and Michael Bloomberg. These recommendations highlight a growing concern over the effects of climate change on the economy and financial markets, and the need for investors to be able to assess climate-related risks.

At the conference, senior representatives from the financial, business and regulatory communities will discuss the development of metrics for disclosing physical climate risk and opportunities, and the integration of these disclosures into decision-making.

The confirmed high-level speakers at the conference will include:

  • Suma Chakrabarti, President, the EBRD
  • Roald Lapperre, Netherlands Deputy Minister for Infrastructure & Water
  • Frank Elderson, Executive Director, DNB (Netherlands Central Bank).

The panelists will represent a rich variety of market leaders such as Aon, Citi, Maersk, Moody’s and Standard Chartered, as well as the Bank of England, the French Treasury and the European Commission.

Findings from the expert working groups will also be published. The working groups include representatives from Allianz, APG, Aon, Bank of England, Barclays, BlackRock, Bloomberg, BNP Paribas, Citi, DNB, DWS, Lightsmith Group, Lloyds, Meridiam Infrastructure, Moody’s, OECD, S&P Global, Shell, Siemens, Standard Chartered, USS and Zurich Asset Management. An expert team led by Acclimatise and Four Twenty Seven is providing the Secretariat function to the working groups.

TCFD recommendations, released for the G20 summit in June 2017, call for the inclusion of metrics on physical climate risk and opportunities into financial disclosures by corporations and financial institutions. This is echoed in the recommendations of the European Union’s High Level Expert Group on sustainable finance, released in January 2018, and the Action Plan from the European Commission released in March 2018.

Last month the EBRD become a TCFD supporter, the first multilateral development bank to do so. The EBRD’s 2017 Sustainability Report, to be released later this month, will provide an initial outline of how TCFD recommendations relate to the Bank’s operations. The conference on 31 May will be an important milestone in the Bank’s support for the TCFD process.

Since 2006 the EBRD has invested over €22 billion in projects under its Green Economy Transition approach. Energy efficiency and environmental sustainability have been a priority for the Bank since its creation in 1991.

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Contact CEO Emilie Mazzacurati for more information and read about Four Twenty Seven’s solutions to help financial institutions, businesses and governments improve their climate resilience.

Newsletter: Advancing TCFD Guidance on Physical Climate Risk & Opportunities

 

 

Four Twenty Seven’s monthly newsletter highlights recent developments in climate adaptation and resilience. This month, don’t miss our update on upcoming EU regulations, our analysis on lessons learned from Art. 173 in France, and our conference calendar for the spring!

In Focus: Advancing TCFD Guidance on Physical Climate RIsk and Opportunities

An initiative from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Global Center for Excellence in Climate Adaptation

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation (GCECA) are hosting an event: “Advancing TCFD guidance on physical climate risk and opportunities,” which will be held on 31 May at the EBRD’s headquarters in London. This event will be a forum for senior representatives from the financial and business community to discuss and identify the way forward for the development of metrics for disclosing physical climate risk and opportunities, as well as pointers for integrating physical climate risk considerations in scenario-based decision making by businesses and financial institutions.

In preparation for this event, the EBRD has been hosting working groups focused on advancing and fleshing out the recommendations from the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure’s (TCFD) final recommendations released for the G20 summit last June. The TCFD recommended the inclusion of metrics on physical climate risk and opportunities in financial disclosures and called for further research and concrete guidance on what the appropriate metrics would be.

The conference will feature the findings from expert working groups that include representatives from Allianz, APG, AON, Bank of England, Barclays, BlackRock, Bloomberg, BNP Paribas, Citi, DNB, Deutsche Asset Management, Lightsmith Group, Lloyds, Meridiam Infrastructure, Moody’s, OECD, S&P Global, Shell, Siemens, Standard Chartered, USS and Zurich AM

Four Twenty Seven provides the technical secretariat for this initiative in partnership with Acclimatise. Learn more about the conference: “Advancing TCFD Guidance on Physical Climate Risk & Opportunities.” 

EU Moves Towards Regulation for Climate Risk Disclosure

EC Releases its Action Plan: Financing Sustainable Growth

Earlier this month the EU laid out a clear plan to move towards mandatory climate risk disclosure as part of a new set of regulations to finance sustainable growth and support the transition to a low-carbon economy. The European Commission’s Action Plan lays out a two year timeline for implementation, with a goal to create a taxonomy for climate adaptation finance by the end of 2019. These regulations from the EU will drive change into financial markets globally and set standards on reporting, disclosures and infrastructure resilience that will likely set the bar for the rest of the world.

The EC based the Action Plan on the High-Level Expert Group on Sustainable Finance’s (HLEG) final recommendations for actions to drive the transition to a sustainable financial system. The HLEG was created by the EC in December 2016 to determine how the regulatory landscape should transform to support efforts towards the goals of the Paris agreement and  promote the financing of a sustainable, resource-efficient economy. As the group’s report was eagerly awaited as a blueprint for market transformation in Europe, the EC’s Action Plan is expected to propel that transformation forward while prompting international conversation.

Read the Analysis

Lessons Learned from Article 173 Reporting

How are French investors reporting physical risk?
A Four Twenty Seven analysis

The first year of reporting under Art. 173 in France saw limited uptake of disclosures of physical risk and opportunities. We reviewed disclosures from 50 asset owners in France and found that only a quarter of respondents included substantial analysis and metrics on their exposure to physical impacts of climate change. We find insurance companies AXA and Generali provided the most detailed analysis for property portfolios, while FRR and ERAFP were the only pension funds to provide an initial assessment of physical risk exposure in their equity and fixed income portfolios.

Read the Analysis

More good reads on climate risk disclosures:

Extreme Weather Hurts Corporations

Weather Affects Company Performance

Whether it’s extreme heat diminishing worker productivity, winter storms damaging roads and power lines or one of countless other impacts, extreme weather causes harm to businesses’ facilities, their workers and supply chains, and leads to financial impacts. The World Resources Institute’s recent report, “Water Shortages Cost Indian Energy Companies Billions,” highlights findings that India’s thermal power is so reliant on water for cooling that the largest thermal utilities had to close at least once between 2013-2016 and lost about $1.4 billion in revenue. In the article “5 Things Companies Can Do to Grow in a Water-Stressed World,” Water Deeply describes ways that companies are mitigating their risk by proactively addressing water resource limitations.

Climate-related Risk for Telecommunications

Companies in different sectors will be affected differently by three types of climate risk. Novethic’s article “L’impact des risques climatiques sur les entreprises, le cas d’Orange,” provides direct examples of how physical climate risk, transition risk and reputation/legal risk directly threaten companies. In a discussion of Orange, a telecommunications provider, the article highlights the complex factors that companies must consider in addition to their impact on CO2 emissions. Such considerations include a company’s potential to promote innovations for resilience in society through programs ranging from apps that organize carpooling to smart metering.

Inside the Office at Four Twenty Seven

Meet Guest Researcher, Nora Pankratz

Four Twenty Seven is excited to welcome Nora Pankratz as a guest researcher. Nora is a Ph.D. candidate in Finance at the European Center for Corporate Engagement at Maastricht University in the Netherlands. Her research focuses on the impact of extreme temperatures on the financial performance of public firms. For the next several months Nora will be based in Berkeley, working with data collected by Four Twenty Seven to develop a research project on the translation of climate risks into financial risks.

Upcoming Events

Join the Four Twenty Seven team in the field at these upcoming events:

  • March 19-21: ClimateCon, Asheville, NC: Katy Maher, is at this convening of science and businesses professionals focused on building climate resilience.
  • March 26-27: Financial Risks International Forum, Paris, France: Léonie Chatain, will attend this annual conference on emerging risks in the financial and insurance sectors.
  • April 2:  ICARP TAC Quarterly Meeting, San Francisco, CA: Natalie Ambrosio will participate in the Adaptation Vision Framework workshop hosted by the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research.
  • April 3-6: Sustainatopia, San Francisco, CA: COO Colin Shaw, will speak on a panel on ESG investing and a panel on climate risk at this annual convening of sustainability and financial experts.
  • April 9Financing Climate Change Adaptation, New York, NY: Founder and CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will participate in a private investor workshop on financing adaptation in US cities, organized by C40, NY City and GARI.
  • April 10-11:  Responsible Investors Asia, Tokyo, Japan: Meet with the Four Twenty Seven team to discuss physical climate risk in equities and infrastructure portfolios.
  • May 17: Sustainable Real Assets Conference, Washington, DC: Founder and CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will keynote GRESB’s annual conference on infrastructure resilience.
  • May 31: Advancing TCFD Guidance on Physical Climate Risk and Opportunities, London, UK: Four Twenty Seven is a strategic partner for this event hosted by EBRD and GCECA to discuss emerging guidance on metrics for physical climate risk disclosures and scenario analysis.
  • June 5-6: Responsible Investors Europe, London, UK: Meet with the Four Twenty Seven team to discuss ratings and engagement on physical climate risk in equities.
  • June 18-21: Adaptation Futures 2018, Cape Town, South Africa: Director of Advisory Services, Yoon Kim, will facilitate a session exploring integrating climate risks into infrastructure investment decisions.
  • August 28-293rd California Adaptation Forum, Sacramento, CA: Save the date for this opportunity to join over 600 climate leaders in workshops, sessions and networking around adaptation action in California.

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Art. 173: Lessons Learned from Climate Risk Disclosures in France

March 21, 2018 – 427 ANALYSIS. The first year of reporting under Art. 173 in France saw limited uptake of disclosures of physical risk and opportunities. Our review of disclosures from 50 asset owners in France shows only a quarter of respondents included substantial analysis and metrics on their exposure to physical impacts of climate change. We find insurance companies AXA and Generali provided the most detailed analysis for property portfolio, while FRR and ERAFP were the only pension funds to provide an initial assessment of physical risk exposure in their equity and fixed income portfolios.

Art. 173: the world’s first legal requirement to disclose climate risk

Article 173  of the French Law on Energy Transition and Green Growth passed August 2015 requires major institutional investors and asset management companies to explain how they take Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria into account in their risk management and investment policies. These institutions are also asked to report on the impacts of both physical risks and ‘transition’ risks caused by climate change on their activities and assets.

The law applies to French companies, meaning that French subsidiaries of large financial groups are potentially subject to requirements that do not apply to their parent companies. Its implementing decree invites these organizations to establish scenarios and models to take into account climate risks impacts on the value of their portfolios.

Article 173 covers publicly traded companies, banks and credit providers, asset managers and institutional investors (insurers, pension or mutual funds and sovereign wealth funds). In addition, asset managers managing funds above 500 M€ and institutional investors with balance sheets above 500 M€ are subject to extended climate change-related reporting obligations, including both physical impacts of climate change and transition risks (impact of the transition to a low-carbon economy).

The inclusion of physical impacts of climate change in financial risk analysis is in line with the industry-led Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations report, released in July 2017.

What did financial institutions report?

We conducted a desktop analysis of the 2017 reports (applying to 2016 portfolios) to understand how financial institutions responded to the requirements laid out by Art. 173 in the first compliance year. We reviewed 50 asset owners in France, including public pension funds, sovereign wealth fund and insurance companies, with an aggregate €5.5 trillion euro ($6.8tn) under management. Our analysis included all the public entities covered by the Article 173, as well as private insurers with asset under management above €2bn. Insurance companies play a particularly important role as asset owners in France, where individual savings are massively invested in life insurance savings products. French pension funds, on the other hand, are relatively small due to France’s pay-as-you-go retirement system.

We were able to find Art. 173 reports for 36 out of 50 organizations. It is possible that, in spite of our best efforts, we failed to locate reports. However, Art. 173 has a ‘comply or explain’ provision which also makes it acceptable not to publish a report if one can justify climate change is not a material risk.

Among the Art. 173 reports, we found 29 from insurance companies and seven from public entities. Among them, 20 organizations (40%) discussed only their carbon footprint and/or their exposure to energy transition risk, without including physical risk disclosures.

A small group of organizations (8%) mentioned physical risk as a topic they were exploring but not yet able to report on. Most of them emphasized the lack of tools and models as a major impediment to reporting physical risk.

All in all, we found 12 financial institutions (24%) of the institutions under review made an explicit attempt to disclose their exposure to physical climate risk.

We broke down this latter group in three categories. Eight companies (16%) provided an analysis of the physical risks threatening either their operations or property portfolios (for insurance), ranging in scope from a few buildings to €15bn worth of assets in the case of AXA. Most of the reports contain limited details on methodology and findings.

Two companies (4%) performed what we call a “top-down” analysis, working with investment advisor Mercer to perform a multi-asset class, sector-level analysis of climate risk using Mercer’s proprietary climate risk model, which blends transition and physical risk. Finally, two high profile investors, pension fund ERAFP and sovereign wealth fund FRR, included an initial assessment of climate risk in their equity and fixed income portfolios, at the asset level.

 

 

Table 1 presents a detailed breakdown of how those organizations take physical climate risks into account:

 Case Studies: How do Investors Report on Physical Risk?

AXA

The best student in this 2016 reporting vintage is AXA France. AXA received the “International Award on Investor Climate-Related Disclosures” from the French Ministry for the Environment, for analyzing 15 billion euro of assets (real estate and infrastructures). The analysis takes into account most frequent European natural disasters and the geographical location of each individual asset as well as the destruction rate of their building materials. They found out that, over 30 years, the accumulated loss would aggregate to 24 million euro. The insurance company also reported that if a centennial storm was to occur, the portfolio would be impacted by a 15.2 million euro loss. While AXA provides some of the most detailed analysis,  it also noted that “this new kind of analysis needs to be improved in order to take into account more natural disasters and other portfolios”.

The following graphs demonstrate the physical risk exposure to windstorms for the analyzed infrastructures. On the left, the graph displays the annual average destruction rate, which is linked to the average loss generated by windstorms every year (0.8M€ on average). The map on the right shows the destruction rates due to a 100-year event, with an estimated loss of 15.2M€.

Source (Award on Investor Climate-related Disclosures, AXA Group, October 2016: https://cdn.axa.com/www-axa-com%2Fcb46e9f7-8b1d-4418-a8a7-a68fba088db8_axa_investor_climate_report.pdf)

Generali

Generali France also provided a complete and detailed evaluation of the potential impact of physical risks on their property assets. They analyzed 112 assets, mainly in the Paris Area, accounting for 60% of their owned assets. Generali took into account two kinds of physical risks, flood and drought, to rate their assets from “high” to “very low” risk. Regarding drought, 3 assets enter the medium-risk category. As only 12 assets have been analyzed (Paris and the overseas departments being excluded), this risk is important as it accounts for 25% of their analysis. On the other hand, 10 out of 112 buildings owned by Generali France are exposed to a high risk of flood. They are mainly located in the Paris Area and would be heavily affected by a Seine flood.

To sum up, both AXA and Generali reports are valuable examples of emerging best practices as they show the willingness of those organizations to take physical risks into account in their reporting practice. However, their analyses would benefit from being extended to a broader portfolio and to other natural events.

FRR

In November 2017 the French pension fund, “Fonds de Réserve pour les Retraites” (FRR), released a report addressing Article 173 requirements. Four Twenty Seven performed the analysis, and applied its proprietary methodology to measure the types and levels of climate risk embedded in FRR holdings. Portfolio exposure was evaluated according to their respective industry and sector. The analysis produced a sector risk score based on three indicators:

  • the sector’s supply chains’ geography ;
  • its dependency on climate-sensitive natural resources inputs ;
  • its sensitivity to weather variability.

This hotspot analysis gave FRR tools to get an initial understanding of its portfolios’ exposure. It highlighted strongly exposed sectors such as Materials and Consumer Staples, due to their dependency on natural resources, and Pharmaceuticals and Electronics hardware, due to their complex and global supply chains. Conversely, the results brought out the low exposure of service-based industries such as Media and Telecommunication.

Conclusion

Reporting on physical climate risk is a challenging task for financial institutions – many organizations lack the tools, models and data to perform a comprehensive assessment of their portfolios, whether they’re composed of real assets or equities. As TCFD reporting becomes standard for financial institutions and corporations, pressure will increase to report on physical risk. We expect fast changes in disclosures in this regard, starting as early as the 2018 reporting season.

This analysis was written with support from Thomas Poloniato.

Four Twenty Seven’s ever-growing database now includes close to one million corporate sites and covers over 1800 publicly-traded companies. We offer equity risk scoring and real asset screening services to help investors and corporations leverage this data.

Advancing TCFD Guidance on Physical Climate Risk & Opportunities: An EBRD & GCECA Initiative

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation (GCECA) have announced an initiative focused on building climate resilience in the financial sector. Throughout the project Four Twenty Seven and our partners, Acclimatise, are supporting the knowledge development on physical climate risk and resilience metrics for the financial sector. The project will culminate in an event in May in London: “Advancing TCFD guidance on physical climate risk & opportunities.”

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation (GCECA) are hosting an event: “Advancing TCFD guidance on physical climate risk and opportunities”, which will be held on 31 May at the EBRD’s headquarters in London. This event will build on the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), which crystallised a growing concern of investors and business leaders over the physical impacts of climate change on the economy and financial markets.

The TCFD’s final recommendations, released for the G20 summit in June 2017, recommended the inclusion of metrics on physical climate risk and opportunities into financial disclosures and called for further research and concrete guidance over what the appropriate metrics should be. Corporations and financial institutions need to agree on common metrics to ensure transparency and data comparability. Since then, the recommendations of the European Union’s High Level Expert Group on sustainable finance, released in January 2018, have also highlighted the need for a common taxonomy on climate change adaptation and metrics for physical climate risk and opportunity disclosures.

This event will be a forum for senior representatives from the financial and business community to discuss and identify the way forward for the development of metrics for disclosing physical climate risk and opportunities, as well as pointers for integrating physical climate risk considerations in scenario-based decision making by businesses and financial institutions.

The conference is sponsored by the EBRD and GCECA, and will feature the findings from expert working groups that include representatives from Allianz, APG, AON, Bank of England, Barclays, BlackRock, Bloomberg, BNP Paribas, Citi, DNB, Deutsche Asset Management, Lightsmith Group, Lloyds, Meridiam Infrastructure, Moody’s, OECD, S&P Global, Shell, Siemens, Standard Chartered, USS and Zurich AM, Acclimatise and 427 are providing the Secretariat function.

A detailed agenda will be circulated in due course. Please note that this is an invitation only event. Additional details are available on EBRD’s event page.

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Contact CEO Emilie Mazzacurati for more information and read about Four Twenty Seven’s solutions to help financial institutions, businesses and governments improve their climate resilience.

EU Moves Towards Regulation for Climate Risk Disclosure

From Recommendations to Action 

March 15, 2018 – 427 ANALYSIS. The EU laid out a clear plan to move towards mandatory climate risk disclosure as part of a new set of regulations to finance sustainable growth and support the transition to a low-carbon economy. The European Commission’s Action Plan lays out a two year timeline for implementation, with a goal to create a taxonomy for climate adaptation finance by the end of 2019. These regulations from the EU will drive change into financial markets globally and set standards on reporting, disclosures and infrastructure resilience that will likely set the bar for the rest of the world.

The European Commission recently released its Action Plan: Financing Sustainable Growth to establish a regulatory framework that supports the goals of the Paris agreement. The Action Plan calls for transformation of the whole financial system and  to enable the financing a sustainable, resource-efficient economy.

The Action Plan builds on the recommendation from a high profile expert group, the High-Level Expert Group on Sustainable Finance (HLEG), which was created by the European Commission in December 2016.   The group included experts from banking, insurance, asset management and stock exchanges. Its final recommendations to the Commission, released in January  acknowledged the responsibility of the financial system to drive change towards “enduring and inclusive economic prosperity”. HLEG recommendations aimed to both promote sustainable investments, so that capital reaches sustainable projects and also to ensure that the financial system itself addresses risk and builds resilience.

Incorporating many of the  recommendations of the HLEG, the Commission’s Action Plan lays out ten specific actions, setting deadlines within the next two years, with a number of thematic sub-actions that willbe pursued simultaneously.  Action 1  lays the groundwork for many of the following actions as it will establish a Technical Expert Group on Sustainable Finance, with the responsibility of drafting a standardized EU sustainability taxonomy , including climate mitigation by Q1 2019 and adaptation by Q3. This effort will be supported by legislation this year that mandates the creation of the taxonomy.

The 10 actions are summarized in this infographic from the European Commission:

Mandating Disclosure

Of most immediate importance to investors is Action 7, which calls for the proposal by Q2 2018 of legislation mandating investors to explicitly consider sustainability factors in their investment decisions and disclose their methodology of doing so. This effort is particularly focused on improving the consistency and transparency of climate risk considerations by investors.

Likewise, Action 9 is focused on improving the methodologies and practice of corporate risk disclosure. The Commission will publish a report on current reporting legislation by Q2 this year, which will inform a revision of corporate reporting guidelines to help them align with the TCFD recommendations, by Q2 2019. Later this year the Commission will develop a European Corporate Reporting Lab, under the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group, to help develop best practices for corporate reporting. The goals of Action 10 will support these actions by supporting a shift in corporate governance. It aims to improve transparency and combat long-termism, by engaging with stakeholders around corporate governance starting by Q2 next year.

Revamping Credit Ratings

The Commission also commits to revamping the ways in which credit ratings incorporate sustainability metrics into their scoring. Through Action 6, the European Securities Markets Authority (ESMA) will examine the credit ratings’ current practices around this topic by Q2 2019 and the Commission will pursue comprehensive research on reporting standards, exploring the potential of mandating agencies to integrate specific sustainability metrics into their standards.

Client Clarity

To improve consumers ability to identify sustainable investments, Action 2 calls for the technical expert group to publish a report exploring green bond standards by Q2 2019 and the Commission will consider expanding the EU Ecolabel to include financial products, initially focusing on retail investments. Likewise, Action 4 says that by Q2 2018, the MiFID II and IDD rules will be updated to ensure that sustainability preferences are considered when banks, investment firms and insurers offer accounts to clients and by the end of the year the ESMA will include these provisions in their guidelines. Through Action 5 the Commission will adopt acts that improve the transparency of sustainability benchmarks by Q2 2018.

 Comprehensive Sustainability Support

The Commission identifies a lack of technical expertise as a challenge to pursuing sustainable infrastructure projects and aims to confront this by to increasing the technical support available to investors.  It will run a pilot project offering tools for sustainable infrastructure projects, from 2019-2023 through Action 3.

Action 8 states that the Commission will consider including sustainability frameworks in prudential requirements, looping in the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA).

“A Blueprint” for Change

While the HLEG emphasized that its report is only the beginning of an enduring effort to create a resilient financial system that supports a sustainable society, the Commission’s resulting Action Plan clearly defines the next steps. And as HLEG also emphasized its report’s relevance for financial sectors worldwide, the Commission’s Action Plan states that a “coordinated, global effort is crucial.”  As “the HLEG hopes to stimulate a wide public debate that helps shift Europe’s financial system from post-crisis stabilization to supporting long-term growth,” that same widespread conversation is essential to driving global change. These regulations from the EU, as is often the case, will drive change into financial markets globally by setting new standards global financial institutions must meet.

Download the HLEG Recommendations.

Download the EC Action Plan

For more resources on building a sustainable financial sector, read about Four Twenty Seven’s work providing the technical secretariat for an EBRD and GCECA initiative to build a resilient financial sector and download the GARI Investor Guide to Physical Climate Risk and Resilience.

EU High-Level Expert Group on Sustainable Finance

Reaching the goals of the Paris agreement, and financing a sustainable, resource-efficient economy, requires a transformation of the whole financial system. Understanding that private-sector investments must be joined by a transformation of the regulatory landscape, the European Commission created the High-Level Expert Group on Sustainable Finance (HLEG) in December 2016. As the need for reform spans across all facets of the sector, HLEG members include experts from banking, insurance, asset management, stock exchanges and others. The group acknowledges that a sustainable society depends upon enduring and inclusive economic prosperity and that the financial system has a responsibility to drive change towards this sustainability. Thus, the HLEG aims to both promote sustainable investments, so that capital reaches sustainable projects and also to ensure that the financial system itself addresses risk and builds resilience.

After releasing an interim report and soliciting public feedback in July, the HLEG released its final recommendations for actions  to facilitate this financial system reform. The report describes a set of priority recommendations and a set of “cross-cutting recommendations.” The former include developing an EU sustainability taxonomy, pushing investors to focus on ESG factors and consider broader time horizons,  creating European sustainability standards for green bonds and other financing options, identifying investment needs by focusing first on climate mitigation, providing sustainable finance options for retail investors, and integrating sustainability into both the governance and financial oversight of financial institutions. The “cross-cutting” recommendations include embracing long-term vision, empowering citizens to shape a sustainable financial sector, monitoring sustainable investment and delivery, integrating a “Think Sustainability First” outlook throughout EU policy, and promoting global sustainable finance.

HLEG acknowledges that there are other social and environmental issues that must be addressed alongside climate change.  Emphasizing that this report is only the beginning of an enduring effort to create a resilient financial system that supports a sustainable society, HLEG also states the report’s relevance for financial sectors worldwide. As “the HLEG hopes to stimulate a wide public debate that helps shift Europe’s financial system from post-crisis stabilization to supporting long-term growth,” that same widespread conversation is essential to driving global change.

Download the Recommendations.

For more resources on building a sustainable financial sector, read about Four Twenty Seven’s work providing the technical secretariat for an EBRD and GCECA initiative to build a resilient financial sector and download the GARI Investor Guide to Physical Climate Risk and Resilience.

Towards a Resilient Financial Sector: an Initiative from the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development

Four Twenty Seven provides the technical secretariat for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation (GCECA) initiative focused on building climate resilience in the financial sector.   Over the coming months, Four Twenty Seven and our partners, Acclimatise, will be releasing briefing papers on physical climate risk and resilience metrics for the financial sector. The project will culminate in an event in May 2018 in London: “Towards a Resilient Financial Sector: Disclosing Physical Climate Risk & Opportunities”.

Read EBRD’s full press release below:

“The EBRD is partnering with the Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation (GCECA) in a joint initiative to help strengthen the resilience of the financial sector to the impacts of climate change.

Investors and businesses are becoming increasingly aware of the need to understand and manage the risks associated with climate change. In order to explore options for addressing these issues, the EBRD and GCECA will organise a conference entitled “Towards a Resilient Financial Sector: Disclosing Physical Climate Risk & Opportunities”, to be held at the EBRD’s London Headquarters on 31 May 2018.

The conference will bring together the financial, technical and policy perspectives to shape market action on climate resilience. The focus will be on improving financial sector awareness of climate risks and their impacts on investments, as well as facilitating the emergence of climate risk and resilience metrics, and identifying ways on which investors and businesses can integrate climate change intelligence into their business strategies and investment planning.

Announcing the cooperation Craig Davies, EBRD Head of Climate Resilience Investments, said: “We are very pleased to partner with the GCECA, the first international institution with a specific focus on climate change adaptation. Building climate resilient economies requires broad market action by businesses and investors, alongside effective government policies. We see great opportunities for working with the GCECA and a wider range of other stakeholders to enable businesses and investors to realise the value that can be created through building climate resilience.”

“We are grateful that the Paris Agreement has put Climate Adaptation on a par with mitigation but there is a long way to go. Understanding Climate Adaptation is crucial if we want to put paper into practice.”
Christiaan Wallet, Operations Director of GCECA

The announcement was made today in Bonn at the COP23 climate conference which this year is focussing on the implementation of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. The EBRD is organising four panels on key climate issues and Bank representatives are also taking part in many more events.

The EBRD is a major investor in climate finance in many of the 38 emerging economies where it works, a driving force in energy efficiency projects, a pioneer in the development of renewable energy sources and an increasingly important player in adaptation to climate change, having signed almost 180 climate resilience investment since 2011. Under its Green Economy Transition (GET) approach, the EBRD aims to dedicate 40 per cent of its annual investment to green finance by 2020 and is well on the way to achieving this objective.

The Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation helps countries, institutions and businesses to adapt to a warming climate, which is increasing the frequency of natural disasters and causing economic disruptions. It is bringing together international partners, including leading knowledge institutes, businesses, NGOs, local and national governments, international organisations and financial institutions. A technical secretariat has been created and funded by the EBRD.”

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Contact CEO Emilie Mazzacurati for more information and read about Four Twenty Seven’s solutions to help financial institutions, businesses and governments improve their climate resilience.

Newsletter: Climate Risk in Financial Portfolios, COP23 and Workforce Adaptation

Four Twenty Seven’s monthly newsletter highlights recent developments in climate adaptation and resilience. This month, don’t miss our white paper on physical climate risk in equity portfolios, French President Macron’s op-ed on climate finance, and our policy recommendations on protecting workers from climate health impacts. Also, be sure to check out our new website!

In Focus: Physical Risk in Financial Portfolios

Figure 4. Extreme Precipitation Risk for Facilities from France’s Benchmark Index CAC40

Four Twenty Seven and Deutsche Asset Management jointly released today at COP23 a white paper featuring a new approach to climate risk management in equity portfolios. The white paper, Measuring Physical Climate Risk in Equity Portfolios, showcases Four Twenty Seven’s Equity Risk Scoring methodology, which identifies hotspots in investment portfolios by assessing the geographic exposure of publicly-traded companies to climate change. Our methodology tackles physical risk head on by identifying the locations of corporate sites around the world and then the vulnerability of these corporate production and retail sites to climate change, such as sea level rise, droughts, flooding and tropical storms, which pose an immediate threat to investment portfolios.

Deutsche Asset Management is leveraging Four Twenty Seven’s Equity Risk Scores to satisfy institutional investors’ growing desire for more climate resilient portfolios and design new investment strategies. “This report is a major step forward to addressing a serious and growing risk that investors face. To keep advancing our efforts, we believe the investment industry needs to champion the disclosure of once-in-a-lifetime climate risks by companies so we can assess these risks even more accurately going forward,” said Nicolas Moreau, Head of Deutsche Asset Management.

Read the white paper

France on the Forefront of Climate Finance

French President Emmanuel Macron emphasizes his support for the Taskforce on Climate Related Financial Disclosure’s (TCFD) recommendations in an op-ed published on Global Markets. Macron also highlighted the importance of climate finance mechanisms, such as green bonds, and the need for private participation in financing climate action.

 

France has been heralded as a global leader on climate risk disclosure with the passage of the Energy Transition Law, including Article 173, which includes a requirement for financial institutions to disclose their exposure to physical climate risk. Four Twenty Seven is working with French public pension funds and screening equity portfolios to support reporting efforts in compliance with Art. 173.

Adaptation: Safeguarding Worker Health & Safety

Four Twenty Seven co-authored an article titled “Safeguarding Worker Health and Safety from a Changing Climate: Delaware’s Climate-Ready Workforce Pilot Project,” with the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control. Through interviews, surveys, and policy analysis assessing the climate resilience of existing worker health and safety policies, the authors examine the preparedness of five state agencies for climate impacts. The article highlights particular risks faced by vulnerable workers and offers policy recommendations for enhancing resilience to ensure the safety and well-being of agency staff.

Visit our website for a detailed presentation on the Delaware Climate-Ready Workforce Pilot Project, the summary report, and more information about our adaptation planning and policy consulting.

International Climate Policy in the Spotlight

Four Twenty Seven’s Director of Analytics, Nik Steinberg’s panels at COP23

Measuring Progress on Climate Adaptation and Resilience: From Concepts to Practical Applications
Nov. 7, 3:00 – 4:30pm, Meeting Room 7 (150)Director of Analytics, Nik Steinberg will join a panel of experts discussing adaptation measurement, focusing on indicators and metrics to inform and assess resilience efforts. This side event will be hosted by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), McGill University and the University of Notre Dame.

Resilience as a Business: How the Private Sector Can Turn Climate Risk into Business and Investment  Nov. 10, 5:30 – 8:00pm, Hilton Bonn

Bringing together corporate stakeholders and private investors, this event will explore the private sector’s pivotal role in mainstreaming adaptation and driving the resilience agenda.

Speakers include: Representative from Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry of Japan; Mari Yoshitaka from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. Ltd.; Jay Koh from Lightsmith Group and GARI;  Nik Steinberg from Four Twenty Seven; and Amal-Lee Amin from Inter-American Development Bank. For more information contact proadapt@fomin.org.

Tool: Monitoring Progress on the Paris Agreement


This interactive new platform developed by the The World Resources Institute combines climate policy data with interactive graphics to help analysts and policy makers stay up to date on nationally determined contributions (NDCs), greenhouse gas emissions by sector and more. Climate Watch allows users to sort data based on various indicators, examine connections between NDCs and Sustainable Development Goals, and dive into data on specific nations.

Inside the Office: What’s New at Four Twenty Seven

We Have a New Website!

With streamlined navigation and updated visuals, our new website brings our story alive and allows for a more engaging user experience.
Visit the Solutions page to explore our advisory services and subscription products, including Equity Risk Scores, Portfolio Analytics and Real Asset Screening.
Check out the Insights section for our perspectives on climate resilience, climate risk reporting, adaptation finance, climate science and recent events.

Meet Pete Dickson, Director of Business Development

Four Twenty Seven is proud to announce the addition of Pete Dickson to our team. As the Director of Business Development, Pete is responsible for driving growth for our subscription products, with a focus on financial institutions.
Pete brings more than 20 years of experience in institutional sales, trading, and business development. He’s worked with both the buy-side and sell-side to develop and execute business plans and build revenue, products, and services. Pete has worked with some of the largest financial services and asset management firms in the US and abroad.

Upcoming Events

Join the Four Twenty Seven team in the field at these upcoming events:

  • November 7-17  COP23, Bonn, Germany: Join Director of Analytics Nik Steinberg at side events at the UNFCCC’s 23rd Conference of Parties (See above for details).
  • November 12-15  Airports Going Green, Dallas, TX: Director of Advisory Services Yoon Hui Kim will present on corporate climate resilience planning for airports and transportation infrastructure.
  • November 16-17 Berkeley Sustainable Business and Investment Forum, Berkeley, CA: COO Colin Shaw will attend this event sponsored by the Berkeley-Haas Center for Responsible Business and the Berkeley Law School
  • November 30 Roundtable: Investing with Impact, San Francisco, CA: CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will speak at a roundtable organized by Deutsche Asset Management about the use of ESG data in portfolio investing (by invitation).
  • December 6-7  RI Americas 2017, New York, NY: CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will present on Physical Climate Risk in Equity Portfolios (Wednesday Dec 6 at 2pm) and meet with Colin Shaw, Pete Dickson and Katy Maher at the Four Twenty Seven booth.
  • December 11  Climate Finance Day, Paris, France: CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will join this high profile event sponsored by the French Ministry for the Economy and Finance.
  • December 11-15  AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA: Climate Data Analyst Colin Gannon will join the Earth and Space Science community to present a poster on climate modeling.

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Physical Climate Risk in Equity Portfolios

November 8, 2017 – 427 REPORT.  Four Twenty Seven’s Equity Risk Scores help investors identify climate risk exposure in their portfolios and design new investment strategies.  Our methodology tackles physical risk head on by identifying the locations of corporate production and retail sites around the world and their vulnerability to climate change hazards, such as sea level rise, droughts, floods and tropical storms, which pose an immediate threat to investment portfolios. This jointly published report explains our equity risk scoring methodology, features a relative risk ranking of CAC40 companies and discusses particular vulnerabilities in Asia. 

At COP23 Four Twenty Seven and Deutsche Asset Management jointly released a report featuring a new approach to climate risk management in equity portfolios. Measuring Physical Climate Risk in Equity Portfolios showcases Four Twenty Seven’s Equity Risk Scoring methodology, which identifies hotspots in investment portfolios by assessing the geographic exposure of publicly-traded companies to climate change.

This comprehensive, data-driven scoring effort culminates in a composite physical risk score that allows for comparison and benchmarking of equities and indices.  This integrated measure provides a point of entry to understand and address climate risk, engage with corporations and identify risk mitigation strategies. “This report is a major step forward to addressing a serious and growing risk that investors face. To keep advancing our efforts, we believe the investment industry needs to champion the disclosure of once-in-a-lifetime climate risks by companies so we can assess these risks even more accurately going forward,” said Nicolas Moreau, Head of Deutsche Asset Management.

Key Takeways

  • Four Twenty Seven’s equity scoring methodology includes Operations Risk, Supply Chain Risk and Market Risk, accounting for differential vulnerability to climate hazards between industries, asset types and locations.
  • Four Twenty Seven screens each corporate site for its exposure and sensitivity to a set of climate hazards including extreme precipitation, sea level rise, hurricanes, heat stress, water stress and wildfires.
  • To calculate Supply Chain Risk and  Market Risk, Four Twenty Seven uses companies’ financial data, such as revenues and production.
  • China leads the world in terms of coastal risk, with 145 million people and economic assets located on land threatened by rising seas, and countries throughout Asia are particularly vulnerable to climate risk.
  • The Thailand floods of 2011 led to vast repercussions across industries, including car manufacturers, Thailand’s rice industry and even tourism.

Read the report and contact us for more information about our products for financial institutions and corporations.

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Four Twenty Seven’s ever-growing database now includes close to one million corporate sites and covers over 1800 publicly-traded companies. We offer subscription products and advisory services to access this unique dataset. Options include data feeds, an interactive analytics platform and company scorecards, as well as custom portfolio analysis and benchmarking.