Newsletter: Wildfires, Storms and Their Impacts on Credit Risk

Four Twenty Seven's monthly newsletter highlights recent developments in climate risk and resilience. This month we discuss the costs of climate hazards, share updates on Moody's ESG and highlight recent developments in climate risk regulation.

In Focus: The Current Reality of the
Climate Crisis

Devastating Human & Economic Costs of Wildfires

As cities on the West Coast take turns with the worst air quality in the world, and cope with evacuations and loss of life and property from record-breaking wildfires, there is increasing evidence about the longer-term implications of these devastating events. After several years of catastrophic fires in California, exacerbated by hot and dry conditions driven by climate change, homes in exposed areas are likely to decline in value, which in turn can increase mortgage default rate, with severe market implications.

Likewise, as the COVID-19 pandemic limits firefighting resources and makes evacuations particularly challenging, new research continues to emerge about the devastating health impacts of wildfire smoke. For example, "Researchers from the University of Tasmania identified 417 extra deaths that occurred during 19 weeks of smoky air, and reported 3,100 more hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiac ailments and 1,300 extra emergency room visits for asthma" during Australia's bushfires last year.

This is not just a current concern in the U.S., but rather wildfire potential is increasing  globally, and regions such as Brazil and Portugal are also enduring fires. Four Twenty Seven's recent analysis on global wildfire potential assesses how conditions will become more conducive to wildfires in regions around the world.
Read Wildfire Analysis

Dire Records Foreshadow Worsening Extremes

As wildfires ravage the west, Hurricane Sally began to hit southeastern Mississippi and the western Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. The slow-moving storm is expected to continue to drop rain and lead to heavy wind as it moves to shore on Wednesday. This is the 18th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and the earliest S-named storm on record. Several more hurricanes have already formed in the Atlantic and these back-to-back storms present significant challenges; diminishing the window for search and rescue, increasing the duration of flooding and power outages and exacerbating COVID-19 challenges. Sea level rise driven by climate change worsens storm surge risk during hurricanes and warmer oceans can fuel stronger storms.

This comes as this year's first seven months were the second hottest on record and in the Northern Hemisphere July was the hottest on record, beating the previous record set just last year. This is increasingly evident in the Arctic, where satellite imagery shows that the region's largest remaining ice shelf lost a 110 square km portion and where Bering Sea ice was at a record low during 2018 and 2019. This affects ecosystems and Indigenous communities and contributes to feedback loops of warming in the region when reflective ice is replaced by dark water. Meanwhile, in Antarctica two glaciers that are already contributing to around 5% of global sea level rise were recently found to be less stable than previously understood.

Global Ports Exposed to Floods, Sea Level Rise

Sea ports handle 80% of global goods, so disruptions have significant wide-reaching consequences. This recent Economist article leverages Four Twenty Seven's data to explore risk exposure of about 340 of the world's largest ports. The analysis found that 55% of global trade goes through ports that are highly exposed to at least one hazard, such as floods, sea level rise, storms and wildfires and that 8% of trade passes through ports highly exposed to at least three hazards. This points to a need for risk assessment and resilience investment at ports, which requires capacity-building for port managers and an increase in adaptation finance.
Four Twenty Seven at Moody's:
Integration in Research and Ratings

Moody's Launches Comprehensive ESG Solutions Group

This week Moody’s Corporation announced the formation of an Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Solutions Group to serve the growing global demand for ESG insights. The group leverages Moody’s data and expertise across ESG, climate risk, and sustainable finance, and aligns with Moody's Investors Service and Moody's Analytics to deliver a comprehensive, integrated suite of ESG customer solutions.

The ESG Solutions Group includes Four Twenty Seven and Vigeo Eiris, a global pioneer in ESG assessments, data and tools, and sustainable finance. Together, Moody's and its affiliates develop tools and analytics that identify, quantify and report on the impact of ESG and climate-related risks and opportunities. ESG and climate risk considerations are already integrated into credit ratings and research offered by Moody’s Investors Service (see below), and will be integrated into a range of Moody’s Analytics risk management solutions, research, data and analytics platforms, including stress testing solutions and climate-adjusted credit risk analytics for corporates, sovereigns and real estate.

Moody's Investors Service Announces Inclusion of Four Twenty Seven's Climate Risk Data in US CMBS and CRE CLOs

Reflecting the growing materiality of climate events for real estate, Moody's Investors Service now considers climate risk data and analytics from Four Twenty Seven in its research and ratings process for US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations (CRE CLOs). Presale reports include physical climate risk tables for the properties backing the loans in CMBS and CRE CLO transactions, including their forward-looking risk to floods, heat stress, hurricanes & typhoons, sea level rise, water stress and wildfires. 

Moody’s: U.S. Nuclear Operators Exposed to Physical Climate Risks

Physical climate hazards affect the operations and costs of nuclear plants due to their water needs and reliance on critical equipment. In its report, Nuclear Operators Face Growing Climate Risk but Resiliency Investments Mitigate Impact, Moody’s Investors Service leverages Four Twenty Seven’s physical climate risk data to explore the exposure of nuclear power plants to climate hazards, including heat stress, water stress, flooding and hurricanes. The analysis found that nuclear plant operators face physical and economic risks due to extreme events driven by climate change, and operators and owners will have to consider these risks and explore increased resilience options, as they approach license expiration and renewal processes between 2030 and 2050.
Developments in Climate Risk
Regulation & Assessment

U.S. CFTC Releases Report on Climate Risk

Last week the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a report highlighting the economic risks of climate change and emphasizing the need for the financial system to address these risks. The first such report to be issued by a U.S. government entity, it covers both physical and transition climate risks and calls for a nationwide price on carbon. However, this comes two weeks after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released updated disclosure requirements that don't include climate change.

UK Releases Consultation on Mandating TCFD Disclosure

The UK's Department for Work and Pensions released a public consultation on a proposal to mandate climate risk disclosure. The policy would require pension funds of at least £5 billion to assess and disclosure their climate risks and opportunities under several scenarios by October 2021 and would also apply to funds of at least £1 billion in 2022. Respond by October 7th.
Meanwhile, yesterday, New Zealand announced that it would mandate TCFD disclosure on a comply or explain basis by 2023.

Charting a New Climate: UNEP FI TCFD Banking Pilot Phase II Report

Last week the UNEP Finance Initiative released a report outlining phase II of its pilot project working with global banks to understand their approaches to assessing physical climate risks and opportunities and the tools and data that could best support these processes. It discusses climate risk vulnerability by sector, includes an exploration between the connection between loan performance and climate risk exposure and reviews several data providers, including Four Twenty Seven and our ongoing collaborations with Moody's Analytics.
Moody's ESG Summit: Climate Scenarios

Join Us During Climate Week NYC for a Half Day on Climate Risk

Hear from industry leaders on the latest market developments in climate change and discover new approaches to leveraging climate data and financial indicators to understand how physical and transition risks translate into credit risks. The session will include keynote presentations by Nick Anderson of IASM, Jane Ambachtsheer of BNP Paribas Asset Management and Sean Kidney of the Climate Bonds Initiative. The latter session will feature experts from Moody's, Four Twenty Seven and Vigeo Eiris, discussing new approaches to modeling climate risk and its financial impacts.

This event is hosted by Moody's in partnership with the Climate Bonds Initiative during Climate Week New York City. The session is on September 24th beginning at 9:15am EST.
Register for Free

Moody's Analytics' Launches ESG Risk Assessment Courses

Moody's Analytics' upcoming courses on ESG risk assessment include introductions to climate, environmental and social risks and their connection to credit analysis and portfolio management. These virtual, instructor-led courses will include case studies and discussions on how to assess and manage ESG risks. Topics include ESG KPIs, the Sustainable Development Goals, CO2 scope, climate risk analysis, proxy voting, climate risk disclosure and upcoming regulation.

Choose from three upcoming sessions, with options for time zones in the U.S., Europe and the Asia-Pacific regions and review the full course outline.
Inside the Office at Four Twenty Seven

Director, Sales - Jackie Willis

Four Twenty Seven welcomes Jackie Willis as Director, Sales in New York. Jackie leads Four Twenty Seven’s business development and growth strategy in the eastern United States. Jackie has spent the majority of her career in analytical and portfolio management roles in corporate and municipal finance, in the securities and banking industries at institutions such as Prudential Capital Management, TIAA-CREF, TD and Wachovia (now Wells Fargo). Most recently, she served as a Solution Specialist covering the commercial and industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate (CRE) credit risk models for Moody’s Analytics.

Join the team! 

Find open positions on our Careers page and visit Vigeo Eiris' and Moody's Careers pages for more opportunities in climate change and ESG.
Upcoming Events

Join the team online at these upcoming events and check our Events page for updates, including links to events not yet available:

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Copyright © 2020 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.
Four Twenty Seven sends a newsletter focused on bringing climate intelligence into economic and financial decision-making for investors, corporations and governments. Fill in the form below to join our mailing list. As data controller, we collect your email address with your consent in order to send you our newsletter. Four Twenty Seven will never share your mailing information with anyone and you may unsubscribe at any moment. Please read our Terms and Conditions.
 

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Panel Recording: Preparing for the Future of ESG

This panel on Preparing for the Future of ESG  features a discussion on interactions between ESG, the global pandemic and corporate strategy and is part of the Vinson & Elkins (V&E) ESG Symposium: Capital, Climate and Culture in the New World.

Speakers

  • Beth Lowery, Managing Director of TPG discusses ESG governance in the corporate sector.
  • Emilie Mazzacurati, Founder and CEO of Four Twenty Seven, offers insight into the increasing understanding of ESG and climate risks as materially relevant, underscored by regulatory developments, objective data and investor pressure.
  • Sarah Fortt, Counsel – Mergers & Acquisitions and Capital markets of V&E, speaks on metrics for measuring ESG through company behavior and disclosure.
  • Skye d’Almeida, Senior Vice President, Investor Coverage of Green Investment Group at Macquarie, discusses the financial success of ESG products due to long-term predictable revenue.
  • Susan Gray, Global Head of Sustainable Finance Business and Innovation of S&P Global Ratings, discusses company engagement with stakeholders and the increased granularity of investor focuses.
  • Moderator: Maggie Peloso, Partner –  Environmental & Natural Resources of V&E.

 

Moody’s Launches Comprehensive ESG Solutions Group; Appoints Global Head

Moody’s launches an ESG Solutions Group, offering data and analytics across ESG, climate risk and sustainable finance. Read the press release from Moody’s:

LONDON–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) announced today the formation of an Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Solutions Group to serve the growing global demand for ESG insights. The group leverages Moody’s data and expertise across ESG, climate risk, and sustainable finance, and aligns with Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) and Moody’s Analytics (MA) to deliver a comprehensive, integrated suite of ESG customer solutions.

The ESG Solutions Group develops tools and analytics that identify, quantify, and report on the impact of ESG-related risks and opportunities. Moody’s ESG capabilities expanded following its investments in Vigeo Eiris (VE), a global pioneer in ESG assessments, data and tools, and sustainable finance, and Four Twenty Seven, a leader in climate risk analysis, in 2019. ESG and climate risk considerations are already integrated into credit ratings and research offered by Moody’s Investors Service, and will be integrated into a range of Moody’s Analytics risk management solutions, research, data and analytics platforms.

“Moody’s ESG Solutions Group brings together capabilities from across the company to help market participants advance strategic resilience, responsible capitalism, and the greening of the economy by identifying risks and opportunities and providing meaningful performance measurements and insights,” said Rob Fauber, Moody’s Chief Operating Officer.

The ESG Solutions Group is led by Andrea Blackman, who has over 30 years of experience in harnessing financial and technology innovation in leadership roles with banks, asset managers, and financial technology vendors. She previously managed Moody’s CreditView, growing it into the leading global research, data, and analytics platform for credit market professionals.

Including its affiliates, Moody’s ESG-related offerings now include:

  • 5,000+ company ESG assessments
  • Controversy screening for 7,900 companies
  • 1 million climate risk scores
  • 250+ sustainable bond and loan reviews
  • 70+ ESG specialty indices
  • Credit ratings that integrate ESG risk considerations
  • Risk management solutions integrating ESG and climate risk factors

VE and Four Twenty Seven will continue to offer market-leading stand-alone ESG and climate risk solutions given strong demand for their innovative products. VE recently launched enhanced Second Party Opinions for sustainability bonds that integrate aspects of the EU Taxonomy and Green Bond standard. Four Twenty Seven recently announced the addition of wildfire risk to their on-demand Real Asset Scoring Application for a property or facility’s projected exposure to climate change effects.

For more information visit Moody’s ESG & Climate Risk hub at www.moodys.com/esg

Webinar: Climate Change and Wildfires

How will climate change increase wildfire potential? This Four Twenty Seven webinar shares our methodology for assessing global wildfire potential and highlights key findings from our analysis.

Speakers

  • Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme, Director, Communications, provides an introduction to the implications of wildfires for finance, business and government stakeholders.
  • Colin Gannon, Director, Research, explains Four Twenty Seven’s methodology for assessing wildfire potential.
  • Lindsay Ross, Director, Global Client Services, shares key findings from the analysis, highlighting regional hotspots and discussing actionable ways to leverage this data to inform investment in resilience.

For more information on Four Twenty Seven’s wildfire dataset read our report, Climate Change and Wildfires: Projecting Future Wildfire Potential.

Newsletter: How will climate change worsen wildfire exposure?

Four Twenty Seven's monthly newsletter highlights recent developments in climate risk and resilience. This month we share new data on wildfire potential, highlight the connection between racial justice and climate change and feature new reports on climate risk.

In Focus: Projecting Future Wildfire Potential

Four Twenty Seven Analysis - Days of High Wildfire Potential will Increase by Up to Three Months in Most Exposed Regions
 

Areas ranging from California and Australia to the Amazon, Spain and the Arctic have experienced unprecedented loss of life and damage from wildfires in the past several years. Climate change is already making wildfires more severe and Four Twenty Seven's latest analysis finds that it will lead to more days with high wildfire potential in areas already prone to wildfires, and create hotter and drier conditions that will expose entirely new areas. 

This analysis leverages Four Twenty Seven's new dataset, which provides the only known globally comparable assessment of future wildfire potential in a changing climate at a scale of approximately 25 kilometers by 25 kilometers. The data is built upon the two key factors of soil moisture deficit and wildfire fuel type and incorporates data from global climate models to provide a view of changing conditions by 2030-2040, capturing both absolute and relative change in frequency and severity. This new data is now available on-demand for our clients via Four Twenty Seven’s Physical Climate Risk Application for real assets.

Register for our webinar on August 20th at 8am PST / 11am ET / 16:00 BST to learn more about the methodology and findings.
Read the Report
Climate Change and Racial Justice

Exploring Environmental Justice and the Need for Equitable Adaptation

The relationship between race and climate change is too often ignored. The recent protests for racial justice and police reform call attention to the fact that racism is still deeply embedded in our institutions and public policies. In the United States, people of color are disproportionately affected by polluting industries and climate change, while at the same time often lacking the resources to prepare and being excluded from decision-making on adaptation investment.

As part of our commitment to help raise awareness of the nexus between racial justice and climate change, Four Twenty Seven published a two-part blog series on the nexus of racial justice and climate change. The first blog focuses on exposure, providing a brief overview of environmental injustice issues in the U.S., and shedding light on the disproportionate impacts of climate change on Black communities and people of color. One solution is to ensure that climate adaptation intentionally considers this disproportionate exposure, factoring racial equity into decision-making. The second blog on adaptation outlines the need to integrate equity into adaptation and highlights emerging best practices.

Read our analyses:

Webinar Recording

Last week Four Twenty Seven and Moody's hosted a webinar exploring these topics. Four Twenty Seven's Yoon Kim discussed disproportionate exposure of people of color to climate hazards, Moody's Investors Services' Ram Sri-Saravanapavaan presented on the implications of inequality on sovereign credit, Tulane's Jesse Keenan discussed climate justice in urban development and UC Irvine's Michael Méndez presented on racial equity in climate policy. Register here to watch the recording

Central Banks on Climate Risk

The Bank of England's Climate Risk Disclosure

Last month the Bank of England published its first TCFD-aligned climate risk disclosure, assessing the exposure of its own portfolios to physical and transition risks. The Bank underscores the importance of addressing climate change as a financial risk and states the importance of assessing and disclosing risks even as the best available resources continue to evolve. The risk assessment leverages Four Twenty Seven and Moody's Analytics analysis on physical risk exposure. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's Climate Financial Risk Forum published a guide for financial stakeholders to assess, manage and disclose climate risk.

Guide to Climate Scenario Analysis for Central Banks and Supervisors

The Network for Greening the Financial System released a four step approach for central banks and supervisors to implement scenario analysis for climate risk, accompanied by a detailed set of climate scenarios. The steps include identifying the scope of the assessment; identifying scenarios; assessing the best way to connect climate risk exposure to economic and financial impacts; and explaining the results and methodology.

Indebted to Nature - Exploring Biodiversity Risks for the Dutch Financial Sector

Last month the De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency released this report outlining the ways in which biodiversity loss poses economic and financial risk and the role the financial sector plays in biodiversity loss. The report also assesses the Dutch financial sector's exposure to biodiversity risk leveraging Four Twenty Seven's database. The separate report, Methods for analyses in Indebted to nature, explains the full approach. 
Public Consultations on Climate Risk

EIOPA Discussion Paper on Methodological Principles of Insurance Stress Testing

The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority's (EIOPA) recent discussion paper outlines an approach to climate risk stress testing for transition and physical risks, citing Four Twenty Seven's methodology. EIOPA has asked for feedback by October 2.

European Central Bank Consultation on Climate Risk Disclosure Guidance

The European Central Bank (ECB) published guidance asking banks to disclose their climate-related risks and integrate these risks into their risk management processes. Compliance will be expected when the guidelines are finalized at the end of the year. The ECB has solicited feedback through a public consultation open until September 25.
Four Twenty Seven Wins
WatersTechnology Asia Award

Four Twenty Seven Recognized as Best Alternative Data Provider

The WatersTechnology Asia Award 2020 for Best Alternative Data Provider recognizes Four Twenty Seven’s innovation, accuracy and high standard in curating and deploying data for financial stakeholders.
This regional award showcases vendors and end users with high quality solutions with global relevance that are also especially pertinent to Asia markets.This came as financial regulators across the Asia-Pacific region have increasingly contributed to the global call for increased measurement and disclosure of climate risks in investment portfolios, encouraging financial actors to step up. With an office in Tokyo and a partnership with Sydney based DB Funds Advisory, Four Twenty Seven is excited to bring our award-winning climate risk data to more financial stakeholders in these markets. 

Four Twenty Seven Recognized in Exeleon Magazine's Top Companies

Business and Tech Magazine Exeleon, includes Four Twenty Seven in its listing of the top 100 companies to watch in 2020. "While the past several years have seen an increase in awareness of the material risks of climate change, Four Twenty Seven was on the leading edge of analyzing many complex scientific datasets and translating them for financial and business stakeholders." Exeleon writes. "Emilie and her team publish deeply data-driven and location-specific analysis, based on the best available climate data and the specific need of financial stakeholders."
Four Twenty Seven Partners with Nova Group

Nova's Climate Resilience Assessment Leverages Four Twenty Seven's Physical Risk Data

Four Twenty Seven is pleased to announce a partnership with Nova Group, GBC, a leading environmental and engineering due diligence advisory firm. Four Twenty Seven's asset-level physical climate
risk data now informs Nova’s new Climate Resilience Assessment, providing resilience recommendations based on the risks and characteristics of the specific asset of interest.
Inside the Office at Four Twenty Seven

Associate Director, Research - Stephanie Auer

Four Twenty Seven welcomes Stephanie as Associate Director, Research. Stephanie develops and incorporates metrics of novel climate indices into Four Twenty Seven’s products and services. Stephanie’s background is in data science and conservation ecology. She has worked for NatureServe and the California Academy of Sciences in ecological forecasting, data visualization and mapping, with a focus on analysis and communication for climate change adaptation planning.

Join the team! Four Twenty Seven is Hiring

There are several opportunities to join Four Twenty Seven's dynamic team. See the open position below and visit our Careers page and Moody's Careers page for more information.
  • IAM Modeler with expertise in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and in translating IAM outputs for a wide range of stakeholders
Upcoming Events

Join the team online at these upcoming events and check our Events page for updates:

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Copyright © 2020 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.
Four Twenty Seven sends a newsletter focused on bringing climate intelligence into economic and financial decision-making for investors, corporations and governments. Fill in the form below to join our mailing list. As data controller, we collect your email address with your consent in order to send you our newsletter. Four Twenty Seven will never share your mailing information with anyone and you may unsubscribe at any moment. Please read our Terms and Conditions.
 

Our mailing address is:
Four Twenty Seven
2000 Hearst Ave
Ste 304
Berkeley, CA 94709

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Panel Recording: Electric Vehicles, Green Public Travel

This Responsible Investor Digifest panel features a discussion on the time frame for adoption of evolving electric vehicle technology, the improvements of green mass transit, how this affects carbon transition risk and the investment impacts and credit rating implications of the transport revolution.

Speakers

  • James Leaton, Vice President and Senior Credit Officer of Moody’s discusses the future of mobility and its cross-sector credit implications.
  • William Todts, Executive Director of Transport and Environment, highlights prominent issues to consider post-COVID-19 in the transport space.
  • Joy Williams, Senior Advisor of Mantle 314, shares investor and analyst perspectives on navigating resilience.
  • Moderator: Daniel Brooksbank, Head of Strategic Content, Responsible Investor

Newsletter: Black Lives Matter

Four Twenty Seven's monthly newsletter highlights recent developments in climate risk and resilience. This month we emphasize the need for racial justice, share new resources on climate risk for investors and regulators and highlight recent calls for climate risk disclosure.

Black Lives Matter

We at Four Twenty Seven are saddened and angered by the recent killings

of Rayshard Brooks, George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery along with so many others, and by the systemic injustice and continued brutality Black individuals experience every day. We stand in solidarity with the Black community against all forms of racial injustice and we state unequivocally that Black Lives Matter.

During this time of national reckoning, we are reflecting on our responsibility to use our platform to speak out against injustice and elevate the voices of Black people, other People of Color, and those who have dedicated themselves to racial justice.

While the issues we are facing today are not new, they have reached a boiling point, due to centuries of injustice, mistreatment and violence against Black individuals. This is a systemic problem, deeply rooted in our society, that calls for systemic change. We are committed to being a part of the change.

Together with Moody’s, our parent company, we believe “we all have a responsibility to do better and to build a more just society that serves everyone equally.”

As a company whose mission is to catalyze climate adaptation and resilience, we are committed to supporting equity and racial justice in our daily work. Black communities and communities of color are disproportionately affected by climate change and environmental degradation. They are on the frontlines of the impacts of pollution, extreme heat, storms, and disease. They have less means to mitigate detrimental climate and environmental effects, and often lack insurance and other means to recover when disaster strikes. Any investment in systemic resilience must be an investment in equitable adaptation.

As part of our commitment to change and owing to our expertise on environmental and climate-related issues, we commit to taking the following steps:

  • Use Four Twenty Seven’s platform to educate about environmental justice, equitable adaptation, and the interplay of race and climate change through webinars, publications and research;
  • Incorporate into our analytics a lens on equity and racial justice wherever possible; and
  • Connect students from underserved communities with education around opportunities in climate science through mentorship and internship opportunities.

As an organization and an employer, we also commit to fostering dialogue on racial justice among our team members and will strive to enhance the diversity of our team.

James Baldwin’s words ring true today more than ever: “Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.” We stand in solidarity with the Black community and are committed to doing our part to change the system and fight racism and injustice in our country.

Forthcoming Publications & Webinar on Racial Justice & Climate Action

As part of our commitment to using our platform to educate on these topics, we have planned the following pieces:
  • A blog outlining the issues of environmental justice in the U.S. and the disproportionate exposure and vulnerability of Black communities and other People of Color to the impacts of climate change.
  • A blog explaining the need for racial equity in climate adaptation and sharing approaches for integrating equity into adaptation planning and implementation.
  • A webinar on racial equity and climate action, scheduled for July 8th at 5pm CET / 11am EST / 8am PST.
Guidance for Addressing Climate Risk

Network for Greening the Financial System Guide for Supervisors

The NGFS Guide for Supervisors: Integrating climate-related and environmental risks into prudential supervision, outlines five recommendations for supervisors to address climate risks: determine how climate risks affect economies, develop a strategy, identify risk exposure in supervised firms, set transparent supervisory expectations and engage with financial institutions around effective risk management. The report highlights ways in which supervisors around the world are taking steps to address these risks, citing data from Four Twenty Seven.

The Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change Guidance for Asset Owners and Asset Managers

The new report, Understanding physical climate risks and opportunities, and its brief companion report, Addressing physical climate risks: key steps for asset owners and asset managers, provide an overview on the latest climate science, its implications for financial institutions and a process for addressing climate risks. It outlines five key steps, providing examples of how firms can understand physical climate risks, assess risks at the asset or fund level, review portfolio-level effects, identify risk management options, and monitor and report on these actions.
Continued Calls for Climate Risk Disclosure

The International Monetary Fund on Physical Risk and Equity Prices

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) dedicated a chapter of its Global Financial Stability Report to exploring the affects of physical climate risks on financial stability and found that equity investors may not be pricing these risks sufficiently. The IMF encourages mandating global physical climate risk disclosure and emphasizes the need for granular climate risk exposure data.

Ceres on Why U.S. Regulators Need to Address Climate Risk

Ceres' recent report, "Addressing Climate as a Systemic Risk: A call to action for U.S. financial regulators," encourages US. regulators to address climate risk as a systemic risk. Its recommendations include integrating climate change into prudential supervision, exploring how to address climate risks through monetary policy, considering climate risk in community reinvestment programs and joining the NGFS. 
Meanwhile, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission is preparing to release a report on addressing climate risks next month.
Rising Temperatures and Climate Science
The past seven Mays have been the seven hottest Mays on record, with this past spring being the second hottest on record. As the climate continues to change, we have record high temperatures more often, and parts of Africa, Asia, western European, South and Central America all experienced record warmth this spring. Meanwhile, new research suggests that the climate may be more sensitive to carbon emissions than previously expected, due to increased understanding of cloud microphysics. 
Four Twenty Seven Partners with Measurabl

Access Four Twenty Seven's Physical Climate Risk Data on Measurabl's ESG software for Commercial Real Estate

Twenty Seven’s physical risk data is now available in a new Physical Climate Risk Exposure tool on Measurabl’s investment grade ESG (environmental, social, governance) data hub. Through this integration Measurabl customers can now identify their physical climate risks to inform opportunities to build resilience across their real estate portfolios. “We’re thrilled to partner with the leading ESG data management platform to provide unprecedented levels of transparency to real estate owners and managers worldwide,” said Emilie Mazzacurati, Four Twenty Seven's Founder and CEO. “As climate change increasingly causes financial damage to real assets, this partnership helps fill the urgent demand for data to help the real estate industry prepare for the impacts of climate change.”

“The evolution of Measurabl’s software to include climate risk data was a natural development as we continue to build the best-in-class ESG –and now “R” – platform for commercial real estate,” said Matt Ellis, Measurabl's Founder and CEO. “The union of physical climate risks with ESG creates unparalleled transparency for climate-related financial decisions and disclosures.”
 

Webinar on Physical Climate Risk: Identifying Your Exposure with Measurabl

How does physical climate risk manifest for real estate assets and how can investors identify and manage their risk exposure? Josh Turner, Director, Research, at Four Twenty Seven, joined Measurabl's Noelle Bohlen and Cameron Ravanbach to discuss the climate data driving Four Twenty Seven's analysis and share insights on how real estate investors can leverage this information. Watch the recording.
Public Consultations on Climate Risk

European Commission Consultation on Climate Adaptation

As part of its Green Deal the European Commission has launched a climate adaptation strategy to encourage eco-friendly investments and build resilience. It is refining the initiative and soliciting feedback through a public consultation. Respond by June 30.

European Central Bank Consultation on Climate Risk Disclosure Guidance

Last month the European Central Bank (ECB) published guidance asking banks to disclose their climate-related risks and integrate these risks into their risk management processes. Compliance will be expected when the guidelines are finalized at the end of the year. The ECB has solicited feedback through a public consultation open until September 25.
Inside the Office at Four Twenty Seven

Derani Brewis - Australia & New Zealand

Four Twenty Seven is delighted to partner with Derani Brewis, of DB Funds Advisory, who will lead Four Twenty Seven's business development and growth strategy in Australia and New Zealand.

Derani brings over 25 years of experience in the Australian asset management industry, with relationships across the Australian superannuation and investment management community.

Most recently, Derani was Head of Business Development and Asset Consultants at GMO Australia. Derani has also held senior roles with BT Financial Group, Rothschild Asset Management and Prudential Fund Managers. 

Join the team! Four Twenty Seven is Hiring

There are several opportunities to join Four Twenty Seven's dynamic team. See the open positions below and visit our Careers page for more information.
  • Project Manager with excellent leadership skills and proven experience coordinating activities across teams of different disciplines within research, content and technology
  • Regional Sales Director (North America) with extensive experience selling and supporting data products and services for large commercial, financial and government institutions
  • Climate Data Analyst with expertise translating applied climate science for a wide range of stakeholders.
Upcoming Events

Join the team online at these upcoming events and check our Events page for updates, including registration links to webinars not yet available:

  • Jun. 15 - 19 - Responsible Investor Digital Festival, Virtual: Four Twenty Seven joins Moody's and Vigeo Eiris at a virtual exhibit and Emilie Mazzacurati, Founder & CEO, will presented on climate scenario analysis today.
  • Jun. 30 Urban Land Institute Webinar, Living on the Edge: Sea Level Rise, 9:30am EST / 6:30am PST: Emilie Mazzacurati will present on climate risk for real estate.
  • Jul. 2 – Finance for Adaptation Solutions & Technologies Roundtable, 4pm BST/ 8am PST: Emilie Mazzacurati will speak.
  • Jul. 8 – Moody's Sustainable Finance Webinar on Racial Justice and Climate Change, 5pm CET / 11am EST / 8am PST: Members of the Four Twenty Seven team will speak.
  • Sept. 2-3 – Risk Americas Convention, New York, NY: Members of the Four Twenty Seven team will host a booth and present on climate risk.
  • Sept. 9 Environmental Finance - The Future of ESG Data 2020, Virtual: Léonie Chatain will speak.
  • Sept. 15 - 16 – Responsible Investor Tokyo 2020, Tokyo, Japan: Members of the Four Twenty Seven team will present on risk disclosure and host a booth. 
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Copyright © 2020 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.
Four Twenty Seven sends a newsletter focused on bringing climate intelligence into economic and financial decision-making for investors, corporations and governments. Fill in the form below to join our mailing list. As data controller, we collect your email address with your consent in order to send you our newsletter. Four Twenty Seven will never share your mailing information with anyone and you may unsubscribe at any moment. Please read our Terms and Conditions.
 

Our mailing address is:
Four Twenty Seven
2000 Hearst Ave
Ste 304
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Black Lives Matter

We at Four Twenty Seven are saddened and angered by the recent killings of Rayshard Brooks, George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery along with so many others, and by the systemic injustice and continued brutality Black individuals experience every day. We stand in solidarity with the Black community against all forms of racial injustice and we state unequivocally that Black Lives Matter.

During this time of national reckoning, we are reflecting on our responsibility to use our platform to speak out against injustice and elevate the voices of Black people, other People of Color, and those who have dedicated themselves to racial justice.

While the issues we are facing today are not new, they have reached a boiling point, due to centuries of injustice, mistreatment and violence against Black individuals. This is a systemic problem, deeply rooted in our society, that calls for systemic change. We are committed to being a part of the change.

Together with Moody’s, our parent company,  we believe “we all have a responsibility to do better and to build a more just society that serves everyone equally.”

As a company whose mission is to catalyze climate adaptation and resilience, we are committed to supporting equity and racial justice in our daily work. Black communities and communities of color are disproportionately affected by climate change and environmental degradation. They are on the frontlines of the impacts of pollution, extreme heat, storms, and disease. They have less means to mitigate detrimental climate and environmental effects, and often lack insurance and other means to recover when disaster strikes. Any investment in systemic resilience must be an investment in equitable adaptation.

As part of our commitment to change and owing to our expertise on environmental and climate-related issues, we commit to taking the following steps:

  • Use Four Twenty Seven’s platform to educate about environmental justice, equitable adaptation, and the interplay of race and climate change through webinars, publications and research;
  • Incorporate into our analytics a lens on equity and racial justice wherever possible; and
  • Connect students from underserved communities with education around opportunities in climate science through mentorship and internship opportunities.

As an organization and an employer, we also commit to fostering dialogue on racial justice among our team members and will strive to enhance the diversity of our team.

James Baldwin’s words ring true today more than ever: “Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.” We stand in solidarity with the Black community and are committed to doing our part to change the system and fight racism and injustice in our country.

Four Twenty Seven Announces Partnership with Measurabl

June 2, 2020 – BERKELEY, CA –  Four Twenty Seven’s data on climate-related risks is now available on Measurabl’s real estate data platform.

Measurabl is the world’s most widely adopted ESG software for commercial real estate, and Four Twenty Seven’s physical risk data is now available in a new Physical Climate Risk Exposure tool on Measurabl’s investment grade ESG (environmental, social, governance) data hub. Through this integration Measurabl customers can now identify their physical climate risks to inform opportunities to build resilience across their real estate portfolios.

As the effects of climate change worsen, real estate companies are feeling tangible impacts. Properties exposed to rising sea levels rise in the United States sell at about 7% less compared with similar, unexposed properties. Severe climate events such as hurricanes are occurring more frequently and costing billions of dollars in damage to assets. Additionally, companies face growing regulatory and investor pressures to disclose climate-related financial risks in line with frameworks like the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD).

Yet today, real estate owners and lenders lack transparency into the forward-looking impacts of climate-related threats on their assets and find it difficult to collect and analyze physical climate risk data in a meaningful, comprehensive way.

For each building in a portfolio, Measurabl’s Physical Climate Risk Exposure tool provides Four Twenty Seven’s data for the five key climate hazards of floods, heat stress, hurricanes & typhoons, sea level rise and water stress, as well as earthquakes. The tool identifies the level of risk an asset faces for each hazard and allows users to sort, filter and export Four Twenty Seven’s physical risk data by property type, risk category, and risk level. Users can access this data from Measurabl’s centralized software alongside relevant ESG performance metrics and analytics. This new release improves transparency and enables lenders and investors to better assess and manage their risk.

“We’re thrilled to partner with the leading ESG data management platform to provide unprecedented levels of transparency to real estate owners and managers worldwide,” said Emilie Mazzacurati, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Four Twenty Seven. “As climate change increasingly causes financial damage to real assets, this partnership helps fill the urgent demand for data to help the real estate industry prepare for the impacts of climate change.”

Physical climate risk data analyzed in tandem with ESG performance provides real estate and capital markets new opportunities to assess their risks and build more resilient portfolios in a central hub. Through advanced understanding of these risks, the built environment and capital markets will be empowered to make data-driven decisions on risk mitigation and strategic investments.

“The evolution of Measurabl’s software to include climate risk data was a natural development as we continue to build the best-in-class ESG –and now “R” – platform for commercial real estate,” said Matt Ellis, Founder and CEO of Measurabl. “The union of physical climate risks with ESG creates unparalleled transparency for climate-related financial decisions and disclosures.”

Read Measurabl’s announcement here and learn more about the new Physical Climate Risk Exposure tool incorporating Four Twenty Seven data.

Newsletter: Climate Resilience in the Age of COVID

Four Twenty Seven's monthly newsletter highlights recent developments in climate risk and resilience. This month we discuss the overlapping challenges of COVID-19 and climate hazards, share consultations on climate risk for financial stakeholders and highlight developments in climate risk at Moody's.

The Compounding Challenges of Climate Hazards and COVID-19

Climate Preparedness Takes on New Meaning - Four Twenty Seven Analysis 

Last week in the Southern U.S., residents and policy-makers weighed the risks of high winds and flooding alongside the risks of spreading COVID-19, as many evacuated to storm shelters, and 750,000 people lost power across ten states from Texas to West Virginia. Meanwhile that same week 50,000 people in Connecticut lost power because of a storm, with restoration efforts complicated by COVID-19. The devastating human health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are exacerbated by climate hazards, which threaten communities around the world. Four Twenty Seven's new analysis explores exposure to floods, heat stress, hurricanes and wildfires in U.S. municipalities alongside the impacts of COVID-19 on the same regions.

Our analysis explores exposure to extreme rainfall in the Midwest and the particular vulnerability of essential services such as manufacturers of personal protective equipment and farmers, to disruptions due to floods. It discusses the human health implications of extreme heat and its particular threat to business continuity from power disruptions when business operations are dispersed across employees' homes. States like Louisiana and Florida are addressing COVID-19 while preparing for a busy hurricane season. Likewise, typical wildfire preparations have been delayed and canceled due to the pandemic, leaving states like California, Washington and Colorado particularly vulnerable to this year's wildfires.
Read the Analysis

Further reading on climate change and COVID-19:

Public Consultations on Climate Change in the Financial Sector
While the world is sheltering from COVID-19, regulators are moving forward with their goals to address climate change. There are currently several open consultations to gather industry feedback on new standards and reporting requirements. 
 

EU Draft Minimum Standards for Climate Benchmarks

The European Commission is seeking feedback on draft standards for its "EU Climate Transition" and "EU Paris-aligned" benchmarks. The goals of the benchmarks are to increase transparency, help direct capital toward climate-friendly investments and prevent green-washing. Provide feedback by May 6.
 

FCA Proposal for Updated Climate Risk Disclosure

The UK Financial Conduct Authority is seeking feedback on its proposals to mandate climate risk disclosure for all commercial companies with premium listings. This requirement would build upon the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures recommendations and use a comply or explain approach. Respond by June 5.
 

Update to the EU Non-financial Reporting Directive

The European Commission is soliciting feedback on its non-financial reporting directive as part of its efforts to improve oversight of non-financial reporting in alignment with its Green Deal and a global call for a new approach to regulating non-financial disclosure. Provide feedback by June 11.
 

Consultation on Renewed EU Sustainable Finance Strategy

The European Commission is soliciting public feedback on its updated sustainable finance strategy, building upon its 2018 Action Plan for Sustainable Finance. This strategy aims to integrate climate change and other environmental considerations into the financial system, supporting the European Green Deal. The deadline to respond was extended to July 15.
ESG and Climate at Moody's

Moody's Launches New ESG & Climate Risk Website

Moody's new ESG and Climate Risk Hub collates resources on climate risk and ESG from Moody's and its affiliates, including Four Twenty Seven. The platform includes solutions and insights to help investors, lenders and other stakeholders integrate climate risk into decision-making.

ESG Factors Frequently Cited as Material Credit Considerations

Out of almost 8,000 Moody's private sector ratings actions in 2019, about a third referenced material ESG considerations. Moody's Investor Service's new report shares findings on how ESG considerations are factored into ratings actions.
Climate Risk News

New High Temperature Records Set

Last month was the hottest month on record for the world's oceans and the oceans' five hottest years have been within the last ten years. Warm oceans are connected to many climate hazards, ranging from hurricanes to wildfires. If the Atlantic remains warm during hurricane season, it's expected to contribute to stronger storms this year. Meanwhile, warm seas can pull rain from inland, contributing to drought associated with wildfire conditions. This occurred last year in Australia when the Indian Ocean was particularly warm off of Africa's coast.

Meanwhile, this year's first quarter had the second warmest air temperatures on record globally. NOAA projects there is a high chance that 2020 will become the warmest year on record.

Climate Resources for the Financial Sector

These ongoing scientific findings on the dire rate of climate change, including new temperature records and updated sea level rise projections, have significant financial implications. The Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) launched a new Global
Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center to help communicate these risks. This platform introduces climate change for financial stakeholders and provides resources to help risk managers understand climate risks.
Inside the Office at Four Twenty Seven

Senior Climate Data Analyst - John Naviaux

Four Twenty Seven welcomes John as Senior Climate Data Analyst. John performs stochastic modeling of climate and weather data to advance Four Twenty Seven’s climate risk analytics. Previously, John worked on topics ranging from transportation economics in Los Angeles to particle physics at the Large Hadron Collider in Geneva, Switzerland. John monitored arctic mercury pollution in Norway as part of a Fulbright Fellowship, and received his Ph.D. at Caltech for his research on the ocean’s response to climate change.

Four Twenty Seven is Here to Serve our Clients

As COVID-19 has led to widespread disruption in businesses and personal lives, Four Twenty Seven remains committed to ensuring the safety of our staff and clients while also continuing to provide the same data, analysis and client support that we are known for. Our business remains open globally, with teams in the U.S., Paris, London and Tokyo working remotely. Please do not hesitate to reach out to us via email or on our cell phones. 
Upcoming Events

An Update on Postponements and Cancellations:

  • Apr 28 – Afire Rising Leaders Summit, New York, NY: Chief Revenue Officer, Lisa Stanton, will speak - CANCELED
  • May 12 at 10am EDT – IIF ESG Webinar Series: Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change: Founder & CEO, Emilie Mazzacurati will speak.
  • May 18 – Sciences Po Award Dinner, New York, NY: Founder and CEO, Emilie Mazzacurati, will speak. - POSTPONED
  • Jun 8 - 12 – University of Notre Dame CARE Conference, Heron Island, AU: Director of Communications, Natalie Ambrosio, will speak. - CANCELED
  • Jun 9 - 10 – Responsible Investor London 2020, London, UK: Members of the Four Twenty Seven team will attend and host a booth. - PENDING
  • Sept 2-3 – Risk Americas Convention, New York, NY: Members of the Four Twenty Seven team will host a booth and present on climate risk.
  • Sept 9 The Future of ESG Data 2020, London, UK: Senior Analyst, Léonie Chatain, will speak.
  • Sept 15 - 16 – Responsible Investor Tokyo 2020, Tokyo, Japan: Members of the Four Twenty Seven team will present on risk disclosure and host a booth. 
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Copyright © 2020 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.
Four Twenty Seven sends a newsletter focused on bringing climate intelligence into economic and financial decision-making for investors, corporations and governments. Fill in the form below to join our mailing list. As data controller, we collect your email address with your consent in order to send you our newsletter. Four Twenty Seven will never share your mailing information with anyone and you may unsubscribe at any moment. Please read our Terms and Conditions.
 

Our mailing address is:
Four Twenty Seven
2000 Hearst Ave
Ste 304
Berkeley, CA 94709