Newsletter: Fintech Meets Climate Data

 

 

Four Twenty Seven’s monthly newsletter highlights recent developments in climate adaptation and resilience. This month, don’t miss a discussion with our new Chief Development Officer, our report on using climate data and cool new innovations in climate science!

In Focus: Fintech Meets Climate Data

Meet Chief Development Officer, Frank Freitas

We chatted with our new Chief Development Officer, Frank Freitas, about his motivations to join Four Twenty Seven after almost 30 years in finance and fintech, and his vision for new products and markets in climate analytics. Having spent his career developing award-winning solutions for global institutional investors, Frank is a seasoned veteran of product management and strategic planning.

He founded and sold Pluribus Labs, a research and analytics firm focused on the translation of unstructured data into investable signals. Before that, he served as Chief Operating Officer and Head of Product Strategy at Instinet, a leading technology-levered agency broker. He started his career in Product Management, designing and leading the delivery of quantitative risk solutions at Barra (now MSCI). “The acceleration of climate’s influence on corporate performance is upon us, and investors are rapidly awakening to the risks that climate change brings to financial markets,” Frank says. “Four Twenty Seven’s sophisticated climate data analytics are at the forefront of identifying most exposed corporations and assets globally, and we will continue to build on our expertise to provide best-in-class analytics of climate risk for our clients globally.”

 

Inside Market Data covers Frank’s transition to Four Twenty Seven and highlights the company’s goals for this year, including a focus on incorporating new types of data to add nuance to our risk analyses.

Read the Interview

Using Climate Data for Investment Decisions

Using Climate Data: A Four Twenty Seven Report


In this new Four Twenty Seven report, we demystify climate data with a clear breakdown of what it is, where it comes from and the nuances to consider when choosing which data products to use. Understanding the risks posed by climate change for facilities or infrastructure assets starts with conducting a risk assessment, which requires an understanding of the physical impacts of climate change. However, for unfamiliar users, climate data is hard to integrate into enterprise risk management, financial risk modelling processes and risk analysis.This climate data primer serves as an introduction for financial, corporate and government stakeholders striving to understand their exposure to physical climate change.

Read the Report

Innovations in Climate Science

Solar-Powered “Saildrones”

Two solar-powered sail boats are returning to California this month after debuting their ocean monitoring capacity on a trip through the Pacific. These drones are part of a collaboration between NOAA and Alameda-based startup, Saildrone, and they may be able to replace the costly bouy system that scientists currently use to obtain ocean circulation data. The boats collect temperature, wind and solar radiation data, while also measuring ocean circulation currents and gas exchange. These data are more precise than data collected by satellites or buoys and have the potential to provide powerful insights into studies of climate’s impact on ocean circulation.

Autonomous Ice Robots

A squad of “Seaglider” robots have been programmed with navigational algorithms for their year-long journey under Pine Island Glacier in Western Antarctica. Some may sink or get lost in ice caves, but the rest will collect data on salinity, temperature and oxygen content to inform scientific understanding of the rate of ice loss with climate change and implications for sea-level rise, floating to the surface to transmit their data.

Science Funding in the Federal Budget

The omnibus bill passed by Congress and signed by the President last month, did not include the funding cuts to critical climate research that many feared. NOAA received $5.9 billion, which is $234 million above its FY 2017 amount. NOAA has many resources for adaptation professionals and others striving to better understand how the natural world affects their lives and businesses, ranging from its satellite system and weather data to its integrated science programs and US Climate Resilience toolkit. This alphabetized list highlights over 20 such resources.

CRA Webinar: What You Need to Know About TCFD and 2018 Reporting Cycles

Thu, May 10, 2018 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM EDT 
Climate change has become a growing concern for corporations, investors, and financial regulators alike. Corporations need to understand how the impacts of a changing climate may affect company operations or their broader value chain and assess how such impacts should be included in corporate disclosures and sustainability reports.

Emilie Mazzacurati will present an overview of how corporations can identify material risks, provide an update on rising regulatory requirements and changes to voluntary reporting frameworks to align with TCFD recommendations, and highlight opportunities to build resilience and adapt to new market conditions.

This programming is provided exclusively for Corporate Responsibility Association members and invited guests. To RSVP email Jen Boynton at jboynton@3blmedia.com.

Inside the Office at Four Twenty Seven

Four Twenty Seven Website Features New Insights Page

 

Our blog page has been revamped with featured articles at the top and an interactive filter feature that allows users to sort by author, client, media type and theme or to search for keywords.

Our most read publications this month include:

Upcoming Events

Join the Four Twenty Seven team in the field at these upcoming events:

  • April 30 – May 1: 2018 Local Solutions Eastern Climate Preparedness Conference, Manchester, NH: Advisory Services Manager, Katy Maher, will discuss strategies to build local resilience with this convening of government stakeholders.
  • May 1: TCFD US Scenario Analysis Conference, New York, NY: Founder and CEO Emilie Mazzacurati and Chief Development Officer, Frank Freitas, will join this discussion about using scenario analysis in climate-related risk disclosure and resources to help corporations do so.
  • May 10: What You Need to Know About Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), CRA Webinar: Emilie Mazzacurati is the presenter on this webinar about corporate climate risk disclosure. CRA members only.
  • May 17: GRESB’s Sustainable Real Assets Conference, Washington, DC: Emilie Mazzacurati will keynote GRESB’s annual conference on infrastructure resilience and Chief Development Officer, Frank Freitas will join the convening.
  • May 23: Four Twenty Seven Webinar, 11am-12pm PST: Save the date for a webinar on city level physical climate risks and opportunities to access climate adaptation and resilience financing. Registration details forthcoming.
  • May 31: Advancing TCFD Guidance on Physical Climate Risk and Opportunities, London, UK: Four Twenty Seven is a strategic partner for this event hosted by EBRD and GCECA to discuss emerging guidance on metrics for physical climate risk disclosures and scenario analysis and Emilie Mazzacurati will moderate a panel presenting findings on physical risk metrics.
  • June 5-6: Responsible Investors Europe, London, UK: Hear Emilie Mazzacurati speak on a panel on corporate engagement and also meet with Frank Freitas and Senior Risk Analyst, Léonie Chatain, to discuss ratings and engagement on physical climate risk in equities.
  • June 12-14: VERGE Hawaii, Honolulu, HI: Advisory Services Manager, Kendall Starkman, will join this convening of corporate, government and NGO stakeholders committed to building resilient cities and economies.
  • June 18-21: Adaptation Futures 2018, Cape Town, South Africa: Director of Advisory Services, Yoon Kim, will facilitate a session exploring integrating climate risks into infrastructure investment decisions.
  • June 26: GRESB’s Sustainable Real Assets Conference, Sydney, Australia: Meet with  Frank Freitas at GRESB’s annual conference on resilient infrastructure investments.
  • August 28-29: 3rd California Adaptation Forum, Sacramento, CA: Save the date for this opportunity to join over 600 climate leaders in workshops, sessions and networking around adaptation action in California.
  • September 12-14PRI in Person, San Francisco, CA: Join the Four Twenty Seven team at this annual convening of responsible investment industry leaders.
  • September 12-14: Global Climate Action Summit, San Francisco, CA: Join the Four Twenty Seven team at this convening of global climate adaptation experts meant to propel action around the Paris Agreement.

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427 Report: Using Climate Data

April 25, 2018 – 427 REPORT. Financial institutions, corporations, and governments  increasingly strive to identify and respond to risks driven by physical climate impacts. Understanding the risks posed by climate change for facilities or infrastructure assets starts with conducting a risk assessment, which requires an understanding of the physical impacts of climate change. However, climate data in its raw form is difficult to integrate into enterprise risk management, financial risk modelling processes, and capital planning. This primer provides a brief introduction to climate models and data from a business or government perspective.

The first of several reports explaining the data and climate hazards analyzed in Four Twenty Seven’s equity risk scores and portfolio analytics, Using Climate Data unpacks the process through which raw climate data is transformed into usable metrics, such as future temperature projections, to help financial, corporate and government users productively incorporate climate-based analytics into their workflows. Beginning by explaining what a global climate model is, the report explains climate data’s format, computational choices to hedge uncertainty and resources for aggregated climate projections tailored to specific audiences.

Key  Takeaways

  • Climate models are simulations of the Earth’s future conditions. Climate projections are based on a compilation of many models and are publicly available.
  • Regional climate models and statistical downscaling improve the resolution of data produced by global climate models and are thus valuable options when projections are only needed for one location or several in the same region.
  • Climate models can be used to project future trends in temperature and precipitation, but can not project discrete storms or local flooding from sea level rise, which require additional data and analysis.
  • Different time horizons of climate projections have different strengths and limitations so it is important to select the data product best suited to a specific project’s goal.
  • There are several drivers of uncertainty in climate models and strategies to hedge this uncertainty can help users correctly interpret and use climate projections.

Download the Report.

Fintech Meets Climate Data

We chat with our new Chief Development Officer, Frank Freitas, about his motivations to join Four Twenty Seven after almost 30 years in finance and fintech, and his vision for new products and markets in climate analytics.

Why did you decide to join Four Twenty Seven?

First and foremost, the fact that our firm provides data-driven analytics that quantify real issues facing our planet today is very attractive to me. I have spent my entire career in finance and, like others, have increasingly come to see the need for alignment of investment decisions with those that preserve the future of our planet. To me, Four Twenty Seven’s mission and vision exist at the center of this nexus.

When I encountered the Four Twenty Seven white paper on climate risk in equity markets, I was impressed by the level of thought-leadership embedded in the research, and by the high level of quantitative rigor applied to the development of its risk scores. The acceleration of climate’s influence on corporate performance are upon us, and investors are rapidly awakening to the risks that climate change brings to financial markets. Four Twenty Seven’s sophisticated climate data analytics are at the forefront of identifying the most exposed corporations and assets globally.

My career to date has been focused on the development of analytical solutions for institutional investors, ranging from multi-factor risk models at Barra (now MSCI) to the solutions we built in my previous company, Pluribus Labs, where we combined data science and natural language processing with quantitative modeling to distill a variety of unstructured data sources into investible signals.

In my subsequent conversations with Emilie and the Four Twenty Seven team, I quickly came to realize that Four Twenty Seven’s research methodology really resonated with me, and that the culture here is fabulous. It’s rare that you have an opportunity to do what you love and also provide solutions that impact the planet’s future — my role at Four Twenty Seven enables me to do just that!

How is technology spurring innovation in research around financial risk?

There are a number of drivers at play in this respect.  First and perhaps most obviously, the availability of computing power at our fingertips makes data analysis on large data sets more available and more affordable than ever before.  If you had told me when I started my career that I would be able to create an account on a cloud computing platform like Google’s GCP or Microsoft’s Azure and have massive amounts of compute power available within minutes, I wouldn’t have believed you!  Four Twenty Seven’s ability to distill terabytes of climate data from an ensemble of models into actionable insights at the asset level is a great way to leverage this computing power.

Relatedly, the ubiquity of meaningful data, both unstructured and structured, also provides a much broader set of lenses through which to view the world.  Financial research has always focused on the development of insights from any and all available data sources on companies, industries and economies.  Today, an ever-increasing volume of data sources are accessible for analysis.  For example, features extracted from satellite images of our planet can be used to arrive at estimates on a wide variety of metrics, ranging from crop yields to consumer brand sales changes.  Similarly, observations gleaned from the ‘Internet of Things’ (IoT) can provide us with insights into weather trends and CO2 emissions at the sub-city level.  Moving forward, opportunities afforded by organizations’ self-reporting of their climate risks and mitigation plans specifically related to climate change will provide additional data points for firms like ours to incorporate into our ground truth analysis of companies, industries and economies.

Couple these two trends with increasingly sophisticated machine learning and feature extraction techniques and you wind up with tremendous opportunities to develop insights into both the physical risks of climate change and the steps that companies are taking to mitigate these risks.

What are the priorities during your first year at Four Twenty Seven?

Emilie and the team have translated their broad and deep base of intellectual property into purpose-built solutions for a number of key market segments in the financial sector. These solutions enable asset owners and investors alike to understand their holdings’ exposure to the physical reality of climate change.

Our goals for this year are to continue tuning our existing offerings through engagement with our clients and to position the firm for its next phase of growth.  Thanks to entities like the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), market participants are increasingly aware of the need to incorporate climate risk analytics into their investment process, and we will continue to evangelize this message in our own interactions with the investment community.  We are currently in fundraising mode and will use proceeds from our capital raise to support plans to leverage our proprietary facility database to quantify the relationship between weather and company performance.  In addition, we intend to on-board additional data sources to inform our analytics and add desktop visualization tools to our client offerings. This promises to be a busy year!

Can Investors Anticipate the Impacts of Climate Change on Equities?

427 ANALYSIS – The physical impacts of climate change drive millions of dollars of losses for corporations every year, as experienced by Honda and Toyota during the 2011 floods in Thailand. Investors equipped with data on corporate production facilities and climate projections can manage their risk exposure more effectively and reduce downside risk.

Risk is one of the most widely understood and discussed components of the investment management process today. Informed tradeoffs of risk and return are fundamental to modern investment practices across asset classes and investment styles.  And yet, an important dimension of risk – physical risk from companies’ exposure to climate volatility – has yet to find its way into the mainstream investment process.

Monsoons Damage Automobile Manufacturers

Climate change’s influence on economies, sectors and companies is an increasingly important factor in identifying and balancing the tradeoffs between risk and return.  For example, the heavy monsoon season that led to severe flooding across Thailand in late June 2011 through December, inundated 30,000 square kilometersand caused widespread economic damage. Automobile manufacturers such as Toyota and Honda were particularly affected by suspended operations and supply chain disruptions, which led to reduced production internationally and affected global sales and profitability long after the rains stopped.

Figure 1. Honda and Toyota facilities’ exposure to extreme rainfall. Orange dots represent facilities with higher risk.

As shown in Figure 1, both companies possess a diversified set of production facilities in the area affected by the flooding, including stamping facilities and sub-component manufacturers, which do not only service downstream processes in Thailand but in other production centers as well. These same facilities all score high for extreme rainfall in our global corporate facility database, signaling high vulnerability to flood risk for Honda and Toyota – a risk that will only worsen in the future.

Figure 2. Japanese Automobile & Components Manufacturers’ exposure to sea level rise by facility. Red indicates high sea level risk, while green represents lower risk.

Sea Level Rise in Japan

Investors must also anticipate forward-looking risks – what will climate change bring, and which companies are most affected? Understanding and preparing for volatility in returns requires an in-depth awareness of a company’s facilities and the climate risks which those facilities face.  Given their global footprint, many businesses are exposed to diverse hazards such as extreme heat, water stress, cyclones and sea level rise, in addition to extreme precipitation. Thus, the factors we include to model a company’s physical risk to climate change include the sector characteristics, operational needs and the regional conditions where facilities are located. While flood damage and manufacturing delays in Thailand damaged Honda and Toyota, Figure 2. shows these companies are also exposed to sea level rise at hundreds of facilities in their home market of Japan.

Assessing Companies’ Exposure to Climate Risk

Our data interweaves climate analytics with financial markets data to provide a robust view of companies’ risks and identify those that are less likely to experience financial losses due to increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Facility-level assessment of these risks is an intensely data-driven exercise that requires the combination of terabytes of data from climate models with information on complex company structures. We translate this analysis into a clear result to inform financial strategy. Armed with this understanding, investors and corporations alike can achieve a new and more valuable balance of risk and return.

Figure 3. Global exposure to water stress of all facilities in Four Twenty Seven’s database.

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Four Twenty Seven’s ever-growing database now includes close to one million corporate sites and covers over 1800 publicly-traded companies. We offer equity risk scoring and real asset screening services to help investors and corporations leverage this data.

 

  1. Emma L. Gale and Mark A. Saunders, “The 2011 Thailand Flood: Climate Causes and Return Periods,” Weather 68, no. 9 (2013): 233–37.

Local Adaptation Planning – Process Guide

United States cities already face challenges from climate change due to impacts on communities, infrastructure and other assets and resources. Local jurisdictions that repair infrastructure, make land use decisions, and engage communities in a way that accounts for ongoing and future change can help make their cities more resilient. A growing number of local jurisdictions are adopting plans and engaging in voluntary commitments to mitigate and adapt to climate change. A wide range of available resources makes this possible, and climate legislation increasingly requires it, but both can also make implementing a cohesive, streamlined adaptation strategy difficult. This Process Guide outlines an effective adaptation planning process for local governments.

Through our work assisting eight cities in Alameda County in responding to California’s Senate Bill No. 379 Land Use: General Plan: Safety Element (Jackson) (SB 379), Four Twenty Seven has developed a streamlined process to support local governments in their efforts to integrate climate risks into key planning efforts, such as local hazard mitigation plans, general plans, and climate action plans. SB 379 requires cities and counties in California to incorporate adaptation and resilience strategies into General Plan Safety Elements and Local Hazard Mitigation Plans starting in 2017. Our process for effective climate adaptation planning includes 1) a hazard assessment to determine vulnerability and 2) identification of appropriate adaptation options.

By starting with a climate hazard assessment, cities can identify the specific hazards that pose the greatest threats to their assets. After applicable climate hazards are identified, it is important to develop adaptation plans that build on and can be integrated into existing city policies. This Guide outlines our process for assisting cities with adaptation planning, and identifies useful resources, tools and process elements to inform integrated climate hazard assessment and adaptation planning.

Download the full Process Guide.

Read a Case Study on Integrating Climate Risks into Local Planning in Alameda County and learn about our advisory services in adaptation planning, policy consulting and vulnerability assessments.

Planning and Investing for a Resilient California – Guidance Document

Climate change impacts are already being felt in California and will continue to affect populations, infrastructure and businesses in the coming years. A resilient California is a state with strong infrastructure, communities and natural systems that can withstand increasingly volatile conditions. Executive Order B-30-15, signed by Gov. Brown in April 2015,  mandates that all state agencies must consider climate change and that they must receive guidance on how to effectively do so.

To support the implementation of this Executive Order, the California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research released last week “Planning and Investing for a Resilient California,” a guidance document outlining strategies to include climate adaptation in decision-making. Four Twenty Seven CEO Emilie Mazzacurati served on the Technical Advisory Group that wrote the report, which aims to provide guidance for state agencies to both plan for future climate conditions and also conduct planning itself in a new way.

The guide outlines four steps for integrating climate into decisions and then looks specifically at investing in resilient infrastructure, providing actionable guidelines for building a resilient California.

Four Steps to Planning for Resilience

1. Characterize climate risk

  • Determine the scale and scope of climate risk, ranking it as low, moderate or high impact.
  • Identify the vulnerability of impacted communities and systems, ranking them as adaptable, moderately adaptable or vulnerable.
  • Define the nature of the risk,  ranking it as temporary, limiting or permanent.
  • Identify the economic impacts of the risk, ranking them as low, medium or high.

2. Analyze climate risk

  • Determine which emissions scenario (RCP) to plan for: the higher the risk identified in step 1, the higher the necessary RCP scenario.
  • Determine complexity of uncertainty analysis needed: the higher the risk, the more important the uncertainty analysis.
  • If a project is in a current coastal zone, or a location that will be coastal by 2050 or 2100, planning must account for sea level rise.
  • Worst case scenarios should be identified for reference, but don’t need to be planned for.
  • Cal-Adapt is an interactive online tool, displaying climate impacts by hazard, with downloadable downscaled data.

3. Make climate-informed decisions, by using resilient design guidelines

  • Prioritize approaches that integrate adaptation and mitigation.
  • Prioritize actions that promote equity and community resilience.
  • Coordinate with local and regional agencies, including governments and community based organizations.
  • Prioritize actions that use natural infrastructure.
  • Base all choices on the best science.

4. Track and Monitor Progress

  • Develop metrics and report regularly to foster transparency and accountability.

Case Study: California Water Plan 2013

Several state agencies are already integrating climate change into their planning. The Department of Water Resources used a scenarios approach to capture uncertainty in climate, but also in demographics, economic change and land use. Examining 22 different climate scenarios, analyzing different temperature and precipitation possibilities and accounting for growth uncertainty, the agency looked at 198 possible futures. This allowed them to examine different possible management approaches and how they may reduce certain vulnerabilities. This quantitative estimate provided a range of future conditions and possible strategies for the agency to consider in its planning.

Infrastructure Investment

The state of California invests in infrastructure through funding of onsite renewable energy and telecommunications, providing financial assistance to projects not owned by the state and providing capital for all steps of infrastructure development owned by the state. Regardless of the type of investment, climate change impacts must be considered. It’s important to first determine if there is a way to accomplish a goal by using natural infrastructure. Assessing the potential for natural infrastructure can be done by examining the landscape, exploring Cal-Adapt’s projections for the area, analyzing potential co-benefits such as improved ecological services or water health and consulting with other groups. It’s important to compare the risk reduction and complete costs and benefits of the natural infrastructure approach with the non-natural alternative. Using full life-cycle accounting, that considers all of the costs from a project including building, operating, maintaining and also deconstructing, is essential for evaluating proposed projects. Prioritizing infrastructure with climate benefits and integrating the resilient decision making principles will ensure that investments are resilient and climate-conscious.

Download the full report.

This guidance document is a continuation of California’s ongoing leadership in climate adaptation, which includes Senate Bill No. 379 Land Use: General Plan: Safety Element, passed in 2015. This bill mandates that every city must include adaptation and resilience strategies in General Plan Safety Elements and Local Hazard Mitigation Plans by 2017. Read about Four Twenty Seven’s work helping cities in Alameda County implement these requirements and learn about our advisory services for adaptation planning, policy consulting and vulnerability assessments.

 

 

 

Newsletter: Climate Risk in Financial Portfolios, COP23 and Workforce Adaptation

Four Twenty Seven’s monthly newsletter highlights recent developments in climate adaptation and resilience. This month, don’t miss our white paper on physical climate risk in equity portfolios, French President Macron’s op-ed on climate finance, and our policy recommendations on protecting workers from climate health impacts. Also, be sure to check out our new website!

In Focus: Physical Risk in Financial Portfolios

Figure 4. Extreme Precipitation Risk for Facilities from France’s Benchmark Index CAC40

Four Twenty Seven and Deutsche Asset Management jointly released today at COP23 a white paper featuring a new approach to climate risk management in equity portfolios. The white paper, Measuring Physical Climate Risk in Equity Portfolios, showcases Four Twenty Seven’s Equity Risk Scoring methodology, which identifies hotspots in investment portfolios by assessing the geographic exposure of publicly-traded companies to climate change. Our methodology tackles physical risk head on by identifying the locations of corporate sites around the world and then the vulnerability of these corporate production and retail sites to climate change, such as sea level rise, droughts, flooding and tropical storms, which pose an immediate threat to investment portfolios.

Deutsche Asset Management is leveraging Four Twenty Seven’s Equity Risk Scores to satisfy institutional investors’ growing desire for more climate resilient portfolios and design new investment strategies. “This report is a major step forward to addressing a serious and growing risk that investors face. To keep advancing our efforts, we believe the investment industry needs to champion the disclosure of once-in-a-lifetime climate risks by companies so we can assess these risks even more accurately going forward,” said Nicolas Moreau, Head of Deutsche Asset Management.

Read the white paper

France on the Forefront of Climate Finance

French President Emmanuel Macron emphasizes his support for the Taskforce on Climate Related Financial Disclosure’s (TCFD) recommendations in an op-ed published on Global Markets. Macron also highlighted the importance of climate finance mechanisms, such as green bonds, and the need for private participation in financing climate action.

 

France has been heralded as a global leader on climate risk disclosure with the passage of the Energy Transition Law, including Article 173, which includes a requirement for financial institutions to disclose their exposure to physical climate risk. Four Twenty Seven is working with French public pension funds and screening equity portfolios to support reporting efforts in compliance with Art. 173.

Adaptation: Safeguarding Worker Health & Safety

Four Twenty Seven co-authored an article titled “Safeguarding Worker Health and Safety from a Changing Climate: Delaware’s Climate-Ready Workforce Pilot Project,” with the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control. Through interviews, surveys, and policy analysis assessing the climate resilience of existing worker health and safety policies, the authors examine the preparedness of five state agencies for climate impacts. The article highlights particular risks faced by vulnerable workers and offers policy recommendations for enhancing resilience to ensure the safety and well-being of agency staff.

Visit our website for a detailed presentation on the Delaware Climate-Ready Workforce Pilot Project, the summary report, and more information about our adaptation planning and policy consulting.

International Climate Policy in the Spotlight

Four Twenty Seven’s Director of Analytics, Nik Steinberg’s panels at COP23

Measuring Progress on Climate Adaptation and Resilience: From Concepts to Practical Applications
Nov. 7, 3:00 – 4:30pm, Meeting Room 7 (150)Director of Analytics, Nik Steinberg will join a panel of experts discussing adaptation measurement, focusing on indicators and metrics to inform and assess resilience efforts. This side event will be hosted by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), McGill University and the University of Notre Dame.

Resilience as a Business: How the Private Sector Can Turn Climate Risk into Business and Investment  Nov. 10, 5:30 – 8:00pm, Hilton Bonn

Bringing together corporate stakeholders and private investors, this event will explore the private sector’s pivotal role in mainstreaming adaptation and driving the resilience agenda.

Speakers include: Representative from Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry of Japan; Mari Yoshitaka from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. Ltd.; Jay Koh from Lightsmith Group and GARI;  Nik Steinberg from Four Twenty Seven; and Amal-Lee Amin from Inter-American Development Bank. For more information contact proadapt@fomin.org.

Tool: Monitoring Progress on the Paris Agreement


This interactive new platform developed by the The World Resources Institute combines climate policy data with interactive graphics to help analysts and policy makers stay up to date on nationally determined contributions (NDCs), greenhouse gas emissions by sector and more. Climate Watch allows users to sort data based on various indicators, examine connections between NDCs and Sustainable Development Goals, and dive into data on specific nations.

Inside the Office: What’s New at Four Twenty Seven

We Have a New Website!

With streamlined navigation and updated visuals, our new website brings our story alive and allows for a more engaging user experience.
Visit the Solutions page to explore our advisory services and subscription products, including Equity Risk Scores, Portfolio Analytics and Real Asset Screening.
Check out the Insights section for our perspectives on climate resilience, climate risk reporting, adaptation finance, climate science and recent events.

Meet Pete Dickson, Director of Business Development

Four Twenty Seven is proud to announce the addition of Pete Dickson to our team. As the Director of Business Development, Pete is responsible for driving growth for our subscription products, with a focus on financial institutions.
Pete brings more than 20 years of experience in institutional sales, trading, and business development. He’s worked with both the buy-side and sell-side to develop and execute business plans and build revenue, products, and services. Pete has worked with some of the largest financial services and asset management firms in the US and abroad.

Upcoming Events

Join the Four Twenty Seven team in the field at these upcoming events:

  • November 7-17  COP23, Bonn, Germany: Join Director of Analytics Nik Steinberg at side events at the UNFCCC’s 23rd Conference of Parties (See above for details).
  • November 12-15  Airports Going Green, Dallas, TX: Director of Advisory Services Yoon Hui Kim will present on corporate climate resilience planning for airports and transportation infrastructure.
  • November 16-17 Berkeley Sustainable Business and Investment Forum, Berkeley, CA: COO Colin Shaw will attend this event sponsored by the Berkeley-Haas Center for Responsible Business and the Berkeley Law School
  • November 30 Roundtable: Investing with Impact, San Francisco, CA: CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will speak at a roundtable organized by Deutsche Asset Management about the use of ESG data in portfolio investing (by invitation).
  • December 6-7  RI Americas 2017, New York, NY: CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will present on Physical Climate Risk in Equity Portfolios (Wednesday Dec 6 at 2pm) and meet with Colin Shaw, Pete Dickson and Katy Maher at the Four Twenty Seven booth.
  • December 11  Climate Finance Day, Paris, France: CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will join this high profile event sponsored by the French Ministry for the Economy and Finance.
  • December 11-15  AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA: Climate Data Analyst Colin Gannon will join the Earth and Space Science community to present a poster on climate modeling.

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Physical Climate Risk in Equity Portfolios – White Paper

At COP23 Four Twenty Seven and Deutsche Asset Management jointly released a white paper featuring a new approach to climate risk management in equity portfolios. Measuring Physical Climate Risk in Equity Portfolios showcases Four Twenty Seven’s Equity Risk Scoring methodology, which identifies hotspots in investment portfolios by assessing the geographic exposure of publicly-traded companies to climate change. Our methodology tackles physical risk head on by identifying the locations of corporate production and retail sites around the world and their vulnerability to climate change hazards, such as sea level rise, droughts, floods and tropical storms, which pose an immediate threat to investment portfolios.

Deutsche Asset Management is leveraging Four Twenty Seven’s Equity Risk Scores to satisfy institutional investors’ growing desire for more climate resilient portfolios and design new investment strategies. “This report is a major step forward to addressing a serious and growing risk that investors face. To keep advancing our efforts, we believe the investment industry needs to champion the disclosure of once-in-a-lifetime climate risks by companies so we can assess these risks even more accurately going forward,” said Nicolas Moreau, Head of Deutsche Asset Management.

Methodology

Four Twenty Seven’s equity scoring methodology includes Operations Risk, Supply Chain Risk and Market Risk:

  • Operations Risk involves screening thousands of facilities for their exposure to climate risks.
  • Supply Chain Risk assesses both the climate risk in countries that produce a company’s materials and the sensitivity of a company’s industry to climate-related resources such as water and land.
  • Market Risk captures how a company’s consumers may change their behavior due to climate variability.

Since different industries will respond to climate hazards differently, the analysis includes both geographic location and business sensitivity. For Operations Risk, Four Twenty Seven screens each corporate site for its exposure and sensitivity to a set of climate hazards that include extreme precipitation, sea level rise, hurricanes, heat stress, water stress and wildfires. To calculate Supply Chain Risk and  Market Risk, Four Twenty Seven uses companies’ financial data, such as revenues and production. The image below shows an example of extreme precipitation risk for 68,000 corporate sites belonging to France’s benchmark index CAC40 (France’s 40 largest public companies).

Findings

This comprehensive, data-driven scoring effort culminates in a composite physical risk score that allows for comparison and benchmarking of equities and indices.  This integrated measure provides a point of entry to understand and address climate risk, engage with corporations and identify risk mitigation strategies.

The white paper includes a relative ranking of CAC40 companies, as shown below.

Climate Risk in Asia

Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Five out of six people in Asia live in climate hotspots. The Asian Development Bank warned that, without mitigation action, Asia will experience temperature rise of six degrees centigrade by the end of the century. Of extreme concern is the region’s vulnerability to sea level rise. For example, China leads the world in terms of coastal risk, with 145 million people and economic assets located on land threatened by rising seas.

To better understand the implications of these projections for financial markets, Four Twenty Seven mapped the physical climate risks for 500 large and mid-cap constituents of an Asia ex-Japan listed equity index. We found that many companies are highly vulnerable to sea level rise in the region. China’s Pearl River Delta is already experiencing a higher than average rate of sea level rise and has many assets that would be exposed to flood risk in a two-meter flood scenario (see below). Many of these are energy assets which are long-lived and high value capital assets that cannot easily be relocated, requiring protection from rising seas if they are not decommissioned.

An explicit example of the economic impacts of extreme weather events and the resulting damage to assets can be seen in the Thailand floods of 2011. This event led to vast repercussions across industries, including car manufacturers, Thailand’s rice industry and even tourism. While these events were most damaging in Thailand, negative impacts were felt internationally. For example, the production of hard drive manufacturers like Toshiba and Western Digital was stalled due to the floods, which affected companies like Lenovo that depend on Asian manufacturing.

Accessing our Data

Four Twenty Seven’s ever-growing database now includes close to one million corporate sites and covers over 1800 publicly-traded companies. We offer subscription products and advisory services to access this unique dataset. Options include data feeds, an interactive analytics platform and company scorecards, as well as custom portfolio analysis and benchmarking.

Read the White Paper and contact us for more information about our products for financial institutions and corporations.

Newsletter: Climate Implications of Trump, Extreme Heat and the TCFD

 

 

TCFD to Release Final Report This Week

The FSB Task force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) will release its final report this week, on Thursday June 29. The report will be presented to the G20 in Italy on July 7-8. While it is uncertain whether the G20 will formally endorse the report given the Trump administration’s stance on climate change, the ripples from the report in transforming how financial markets view and think about climate risk are already being felt, and with or without further formal regulations, we expect investors will continue their call for greater transparency on climate risk and concrete strategies on decarbonization and adaptation. The public consultation conducted this spring showed the draft recommendations were generally well received by corporations and financial institutions alike. An average 75% of respondents found the recommendations useful, but non-financial corporations were unconvinced of the need for scenario planning whereas financial institutions were very supportive. Respondents were unanimous in calling for more detailed guidance and tools for the implementation of the recommendations, and the TCFD has now announced its work was extended through September 2018 to help support the implementation and dissemination of the recommendations.

More information on the TCFD, its recommendations and implications for corporations and investors:

Why BlackRock is Worried about Climate Change: Investors and Systemic Risk to the Financial System http://bit.ly/2s7plig

The Health Costs of Extreme Heat

Record-setting temperatures and deadly heat waves have dominated the news these past weeks. Earlier this month came reports of a historic heat wave covering Asia, the Middle East, and Europe with Turbat, Pakistan experiencing record temperatures of 128.3°F (53.5°C), marking it as the hottest temperature ever recorded in May as well as one of Earth’s top-five temperatures on record for any month.

A study released last week found that 30% of Earth’s population is experiencing deadly heat for more than 20 days a year, and unless actions are taken to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, climate change will result to close to 75% of the population exposed to deadly heat every year. Further proof comes from a new mapping tool released by Climate Impact Lab which takes data from NASA’s climate models to estimate how frequently a country will experience days of 95°F+ temperatures if emissions continue to rise through 2100. NOAA’s Climate Resilience Toolkit contains a wealth of information and tools on how to prepare for heat waves and health impacts of climate change in the U.S., including Four Twenty Seven’s Heat and Social Equity Tool, which combine projections from global climate models with socioeconomic indicators of heat vulnerability to compare the complex components of heat risk and resilience by county in the U.S. We also offer a tool to understand the impacts of extreme heat in India as part of the India Heat Impact Project.

The true risk of climate change is the inability to adapt to the changes it brings. Prepare for heat waves: http://arcg.is/2gLss9a by @427climaterisk

Trump and Paris: What Impacts on Climate?

The loss of the United States’ participation in the Paris Agreement is a blow to international climate efforts, though not fatal. In the wake of President Trump’s announcement to withdraw from the agreement, uncertainty has grown in the climate science and adaptation fields. Both domestically and internationally, leaders have reached out to form new coalitions for U.S. states, cities, and businesses to take the lead and continue pursuing what the nation had committed to as a whole. Read our analysis: Trump and Paris: What Impact on Climate?

Trump and Paris: What Impacts on Climate? http://bit.ly/2scv7e0 via @427climaterisk

Audio Blog: Latest Innovations in ESG Investing

Investors are increasingly aware of options to invest responsibly, yet the myth persists that ESG investing sacrifices financial returns. At this year’s Sustainatopia conference held in San Francisco, Four Twenty Seven’s Director of Finance Colin Shaw joined a panel aiming to tackle the issue and present new ideas and tools for helping investors. Colin presented on measuring climate risk in financial portfolios, and the need for more climate data in order to better provide guidance to businesses for their risk management planning. Listen to the panel to learn new ways to steer investment towards sustainable solutions.

Meet the Team: Yvonne Burgess

Yvonne BurgessFour Twenty Seven is proud to welcome Yvonne Burgess to our team as Chief Systems Architect. Yvonne has extensive experience in information systems, project management, and software project management. As a Chief Systems Architect, Yvonne is leading the development of our data architecture, modeling and product road-map for a new generation of climate risk analytics products. Yvonne’s experience spans across startups, Fortune 500 corporations, and federal contracting work, blending deep technical expertise with strategic planning and thought leadership. Yvonne holds a Master of Science in Systems Management in organization development and information technology from the University of Southern California, as well as a Bachelor of Business Administration.

Upcoming Events

Join the Four Twenty Seven team in the field at these upcoming events:

  • July 26: GARI meeting, New York: Four Twenty Seven CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will join the Global Adaptation and Resilience Investment working group to discuss their forthcoming publication on climate risk in the financial sector.
  • August 24-25: California Climate Action Planning Conference, San Luis Obispo, CA: Climate Adaptation Senior Analyst, Kendall Starkman will discuss local and regional climate adaptation/mitigation planning.
  • September 18-24: Climate Week NYC 2017, New York, NY: Four Twenty Seven – details to be announced.
  • September 25-27: PRI in Person 2017, Berlin, Germany: Founder and CEO, Emilie Mazzacurati will present Four Twenty Seven’s work on financial climate risk and analytics to build resilient portfolios.


Four Twenty Seven Climate Solutions

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Newsletter: Climate Resilience and Emerging Tools for Financial Institutions

 

 


Four Twenty Seven Climate Solutions

California Weighs Requiring Climate Risk Disclosures from State Pension Plans

On April 25th, the California Senate Public Employment and Retirement Committee passed Senate Bill 560, a bill directly inspired by the French Article 173, requesting CalPERS and CalSTRS, the two largest public pension funds in the US, to report annually on the financial climate risks of their investments. CalPers and CalSTRS are at the forefront of climate change for institutional investors, recognizing that climate change poses risks within their investment portfolios and that these risks, whether as physical, regulatory, or relational need to be mitigated. CalPers is also the first institutional investor to state explicitly that corporate directors should have expertise on climate change.

Art. 173 has garnered growing interest from the financial community worldwide as a path to better understand hidden climate-related risks in their portfolio. The 2° Investing Initiative (2dii) guide “Lighting the Way to Best Practice” provides an overview of emerging practices in applying Article 173-VI of the Energy Transition for Green Growth based on 2016 reports. Four Twenty Seven is working with its clients on 2017 disclosures — we will share insights on our methodology to assess physical risks in equity portfolio to help its clients comply with Art. 173 in the coming months.

Photo by © Steven Pavlov / http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Senapa, CC BY-SA 3.0

Why BlackRock is Worried about Climate Change

Last Friday, BlackRock Inc, the world’s largest asset manager, cast a determining vote and helped pass a shareholder proposal for Occidental Petroleum Corp to incorporate climate change reporting, going against Occidental’s board recommendation. The resolution is the first of its kind for a major US oil company, and the first example of action by BlackRock since the asset management titan publicly committed to requiring robust climate disclosures from its portfolio companies. Read more about why and how corporate investors are pushing for their companies to disclose their climate risk in this articles on the Huffington by Four Twenty Seven CEO Emilie Mazzacurati.

Bloomberg Launches Climate Business News Site

Media giant Bloomberg launched a climate-focused news website, ClimateChanged.com. The website is devoted to stories within climate science focusing on data, finance and more. ClimateChanged looks to be a natural fit within Bloomberg’s range of platforms since the website was already reporting regularly on climate stories.

“Climate change is fundamentally an economic story, it’s an economic problem,” Eric Roston, Bloomberg’s sustainability editor, told The Huffington Post in an interview. “It’s naturally a business story and it’s naturally a concern to rationally minded executives in any sized enterprise.”

The site includes a noteworthy 3-part series on the political and economic ramifications of rising temperatures in the Arctic and the resources that the melting ice makes available.

Visuals: “Extreme” Sea Level Rise Scenario

Newly updated sea level rise scenarios were published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in January, revealing devastating impacts for the United States. To illustrate this scenario, Climate Central created an explorable 3D map using Google Earth, allowing users to see for themselves what 10 to 12 feet of sea level rise would mean for coastal locations across the US – as illustrated above. The scenarios, published together in a technical report by the NOAA, added a new category in sea level rise, “extreme”, which supplements the high, intermediate and low-level categories. The extreme category was added to reflect recent research suggesting parts of the Antarctic ice sheet could start to collapse sooner than scientists had anticipated. While unlikely, Climate Central says the extreme rise scenarios are becoming increasingly plausible. The extreme scenario reveals roughly 10 to 12 feet of sea level rise by 2100, depending on location, which is much higher than the global average projection of a little over 8 feet.

Climate Resilience and Emerging Tools for Financial Institutions

 

Watch Emilie Mazzacurati speak on how she and Four Twenty Seven see the demand for climate resilience work in the future.

How can financial institutions screen for climate risk? Four Twenty Seven founder and CEO Emilie Mazzacurati presented Four Twenty Seven’s approach to screening portfolios for exposure to the physical impacts of climate change. Speaking to an audience of public and private investors, Emilie discussed the relative sensitivity of asset classes, how climate hazards could become material financial events, and Four Twenty Seven’s proprietary methodology to screen real assets and equity portfolios for physical risk.

Emilie’s presentation was part of the ProAdapt symposium “Climate Risk and Investment: Framing Private Challenges and Opportunities,” a conference to discuss common challenges and emerging investment opportunities in climate resilience. Emilie also moderated a panel on “The Role of Blended Finance in Promoting Climate Resilience.” Above, Emilie provides insights in a short interview, discussing the demand for climate resilience work in the future and how companies are looking better understand climate resilience.

Watch Emilie’s interview and full recordings of both symposium panels.

National Adaptation Forum Recap

The National Adaptation Forum gathered close to a thousand practitioners from the adaptation community to foster knowledge exchange, innovation and mutual support for a better tomorrow while focusing on established and emerging issues of the day. Four Twenty Seven’s Yoon Hui Kim, Director of Advisory Services, and Aleka Seville, Director of Community Adaptation, joined the convening of adaptation practitioners from around the country focused on moving beyond adaptation awareness and planning to adaptation action.

Yoon spoke on the panel, “Next Era of Market Finance for Resilience,” discussing new financial tools that can make resilience projects more interesting for investors, as well as presented a poster on Four Twenty Seven’s work to evaluate vulnerability to heat events in the United States, taking socioeconomic factors into account.

Aleka co-facilitated a pre-conference workshop on May 8th to discuss findings from our ongoing Climate Adaptation Portfolio Review for the Kresge Foundation. Four Twenty Seven is partnering with Climate Resilience Consulting and Susanne Moser Research & Consulting to conduct the review and will be publishing our results in a public report.

Upcoming Events

Join the Four Twenty Seven team in the field at these upcoming events:

Twitter
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LinkedIn
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Email
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Copyright © 2017 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.

Our mailing address is:

Four Twenty Seven

2000 Hearst Ave
Ste 304

BerkeleyCA 94709

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