Four Twenty Seven Appointed by the Resilience Shift to Develop Resilience Primer

The Resilience Shift has announced that Four Twenty Seven will develop a primer on best-practices and opportunities for building climate resilience in the shipping sector. The Resilience Shift fosters global infrastructure resilience through projects, investments and events. Four Twenty Seven will support this effort by engaging with key stakeholders in the shipping sector to create industry-specific guidance on resilience strategies. Read the press release from the Resilience Shift:

—————————

The Resilience Shift today announces the appointment of a new grantee, Four Twenty Seven, for its programme to improve the resilience of critical infrastructure.

The team at Four Twenty Seven, led by Dr. Yoon Kim, has been commissioned to develop an industry-specific primer focused on the Shipping Sector that will help key players understand actionable ways to improve their resilience to climate change.

The shipping of material goods is critical to industries and livelihoods around the world. With stakeholders including shipping companies, terminal operators, and ports, this sector is exposed to extreme shocks or stresses in every country and disruptions have a direct impact on the safety and well-being of millions of people.

In developing this practical, industry specific primer, Four Twenty Seven and the Resilience Shift will identify 1) current best practices by leading organisations that embed resilience into their decision-making, 2) incentives that are available for driving resilience, but are not capitalised upon, and 3) approaches to scale and augment the menu of incentives over time.

Ultimately, the vision of the Resilience Shift is a more resilient world which understands the interconnected nature of modern life and the services on which we all depend.

The Resilience Shift believes that greater resilience across the shipping sector is an achievable goal and that knowledge sharing around key incentives and levers can shift major stakeholders towards adopting more resilient practices and technologies.

The Resilience Shift will be supporting the team at Four Twenty Seven in this effort and will be sharing their findings by publishing a resilience primer in 2019.

Other grantees announced today include Wood, TRL, and Resilient Organizations.

The initial expression of interest closed at the end of August 2018, but the Resilience Shift anticipates continuing this work into 2019. They will welcome future submissions from interested grantees at any time.

Yoon Kim, Director of Advisory Services, Four Twenty Seven, said:

“The Shipping Sector plays a critical role in connecting global economies and shipping companies face complex exposure to climate impacts based on both their commodities and countries of business. Leaders in the sector have the opportunity to build their own resilience and mitigate their losses while supporting resilient economies around the world.”

Ibrahim Almufti, Project Leader, Resilience Shift, said:

“Our aim is to shift the needle on resilience practice so that all organisations embed it into their decision-making. To achieve this, we must clearly articulate the value that resilience can bring.”

Jo da Silva, Acting Programme Director, Resilience Shift, said:

“We are engaging directly with industry stakeholders and with those responsible for incentivizing resilience for critical infrastructure. The Resilience Shift is a global initiative, we want to develop a common understanding across infrastructure systems globally, and our new grantees are diverse both geographically and in their target sector.”

 —————————

Read more about resilient infrastructure in this Lenders’ Guide for Considering Climate Risk in Infrastructure Investments and explore Four Twenty Seven’s solutions for assessing physical climate risk and developing resilience strategies.

Newsletter: California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment

Four Twenty Seven's monthly newsletter highlights recent developments in climate adaptation and resilience. This month, don't miss the new California Heat Assessment Tool, funding opportunities for risk mitigation and a preview of resilience events at upcoming conferences!

In Focus: Health-based Heat Projections

Four Twenty Seven tool developed under California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment identifies regions most vulnerable to extreme heat

The California Heat Assessment Tool helps identify neighborhoods with populations vulnerable to heat and overlays projections for heat events likely to cause health impacts. This new research establishes local, health-based thresholds for extreme heat that help public officials, health professionals and residents understand what changing conditions mean for them. The tool can be searched by city, county or zip code and provides data at the census tract level.

Four Twenty Seven developed the tool with funding from the California Natural Resources Agency, in partnership with Argos Analytics, the Public Health Institute and Habitat Seve, and  technical support from the California Department of Public Health.

Access the Tool
California Releases Fourth Climate Change Assessment 

“In California, facts and science still matter,” said Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. “These findings are profoundly serious and will continue to guide us as we confront the apocalyptic threat of irreversible climate change.”

Released yesterday, California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment includes 44 projects advancing actionable science to serve the growing needs of state and local-level decision-makers from a variety of sectors. Explore all technical reports and outputs at www.ClimateAssessment.ca.gov

"State energy officials said the assessment underscores the urgent need not only for swift global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions but also local actions to protect California from warming that’s already threatening people, natural resources and infrastructure." The Los Angeles Times reports.

“We’re seeing that in the fire situation, we’re seeing that in sea level rise, we’re seeing that in heat spells, in declining snowpack,” said California Energy Commission Chairman Robert Weisenmiller. “The climate is changing now so we need to be adapting our communities.”

Four Twenty Seven at GCAS and PRI

Join our GCAS side event on Sept. 11 in San Francisco

Safeguarding local infrastructure, businesses and the economies they support requires an understanding of the interconnected nature of the climate vulnerabilities of communities, businesses and financial institutions.

This affiliate side event, hosted by Four Twenty Seven, will feature investor, business and government thought leaders to discuss cutting edge projects and collaboration to build community and economic resilience. From 8:30-11:30am on Sept. 11 at Arup. 

This is a free invite-only event with limited capacity. Please express interest to be added to the list and we will review and confirm your registration shortly.
Express Interest

Join Four Twenty Seven at other side events on climate resilience

 
Looking for other applicable events? We've compiled a list of resilience-related side events that are pertinent for investors, corporations and communities. Browse our Google Doc, updated on an ongoing basis, to spot the most interesting side events on climate risk and climate science. Email nambrosio@427mt.com if you'd like your event to be included in our curated list.
More Events
Four Twenty Seven at CAF This Week

Join as at the California Adaptation Forum today and tomorrow! Visit our booth and meet with the team at the following panels:

  • Today from 1:05-1:25pm: Senior Data Analyst, Josh Turner, will demo the California Heat Assessment Tool at the Tools Salon.
  • Today from 2:55-4:10pm: Director of Advisory Services, Yoon Kim, will moderate a panel on "Heat Resilient Transit and Cool Streets." 
  • Today from 4:25-5:50pm: Yoon will moderate a panel, "Who Pays? The Implications of Liability, Insurance, And Credit Ratings on Adaptation Finance."
  • Wednesday from 9:30-10:45am: Manager, Advisory Services, Kendall Starkman will moderate a panel, "From Idea to Action: Mobilizing Adaptation Implementation Through Partnerships."
  • Wednesday at 1:30pm: Kendall will speak at the event, "ASAP Members Lead the Transfer of Adaptation Takeaways to GCAS tomorrow at 1:30pm. Editor, Natalie Ambrosio, will speak at the annual in-person ASAP meeting during the second half of this session.
Funding Opportunities to Build Resilience

Several funding opportunities for hazard mitigation projects in California

  • PDM and FMA Funding Opportunities:There is $235,200,000 nationwide for the PDM Program and $160,000,000 nationwide for the FMA Program, which provide funding for the development of local hazard mitigation plans (LHMPs) and implementation of hazard mitigation projects.The Notice of Interest for both grants is due by September 4, 2018. For more information visit Cal OES or email PDFM@caloes.ca.gov. 
  • Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) – DR-4382 funding opportunity: HMGP funding is available statewide for any eligible mitigation activity.  Eligible activities also include Climate Resilient Mitigation Actions (CRMAs), such as actions supporting aquifer storage and recovery, flood diversion and storage, floodplain and stream restoration, and green infrastructure methods.  More info forthcoming on Cal OES. Or contact HMGP@caloes.ca.gov for more information. 
Upcoming Events

Join the Four Twenty Seven team in the field at these upcoming events:

  • September 11 - Building Community and Economic Resilience: San Francisco, CA: Four Twenty Seven will host a side event alongside the Global Climate Action Summit on Sept 11 to discuss the role of investors, businesses and governments in contributing to climate-resilient cities and infrastructure. Express interest.
  • September 12-14 – PRI in Person, San Francisco, CA: Visit the Four Twenty Seven booth and meet with our team at this annual gathering of responsible investment industry leaders. More details above.
  • September 12-14 – Global Climate Action Summit, San Francisco, CA: CEO Emilie Mazzacurati to speak at a session on resilience in this convening of global leaders meant to propel action around the Paris Agreement. More details above.
  • September 24-26 – 2018 Great Lakes Adaptation Forum, Ann Arbor, MI: Director of Advisory Services, Yoon Kim, will join this gathering of practitioners and scholars dedicated to building regional resilience.
  • September 24-30Climate Week NYC, New York, NY: Senior Analyst, Lindsay Ross, will join discussions around physical climate risk and resilience at this annual event. 
  • October 4 – Japan Electronic Trading Conference 2018, Tokyo, Japan: CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will speak about how physical climate risk affects investing strategies at this gathering of the FIX Trading Community. 
  • October 8-11 – ULI Fall Meeting, Boston, MA: Founder & CEO, Emilie Mazzacurati to join a panel on assessing climate risk in the real estate industry.
  • October 8-12 – Paris InfraWeek, Paris, France: Director, Europe, Nathalie Borgeaud, will join this discussion of recent developments in infrastructure finance.
  • October 15 - Deutsche Bank ESG Summit, Boston, MA. COO Colin Shaw will join a panel on climate risk in equities. Invitation-only.
  • October 16-18 – Verge 18, Oakland, CA: Yoon Kim will join this convening focused on developing a resilient, green economy.
  • October 23-26 – SOCAP18, San Francisco, CA: Members of the Four Twenty Seven team will participate in the annual Social Capital Markets conference.
  • November 13-15 – International Summit at Greenbuild Conference and Expo, Chicago, IL: Emilie Mazzacurati will provide the luncheon plenary address, "Climate Intelligence: Decision-making in the Age of Climate Change," on Tues Nov. 13.
  • November 16 – Methodologies and Tools to Evaluate the Financial Impact of Climate-related Risks and Opportunities, Milan, Italy: Nathalie Borgeaud will present Four Twenty Seven's methodology to assess physical climate risk in financial portfolios during this workshop.
  • November 26-28 – UNEP FI Global Roundtable & Climate Finance Day, Paris, France: Emilie Mazzacurati and Nathalie Borgeaud will participate in these two evens dedicated to mobilizing the financial sector to create a sustainable financial system.
  • December 3-14 – COP24, Katowice, Poland: Nathalie Borgeaud and Yoon Kim will attend the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and participate in side events.
  • December 5-6 – RI Americas, New York, NY: Emilie Mazzacurati to join a panel on climate risk in real estate markets. Visit the Four Twenty Seven booth.
  • December 10-14 – AGU Fall Meeting, Washington, DC: Director of Analytics, Nik Steinberg, Senior Data Analyst, Josh Turner and Lindsay Ross will join this annual convening of the Earth and space sciences community. 
Twitter
Twitter
LinkedIn
LinkedIn
YouTube
YouTube
Facebook
Facebook
Website
Website
Email
Email
Copyright © 2018 Four Twenty Seven, All rights reserved.
Four Twenty Seven sends a newsletter focused on bringing climate intelligence into economic and financial decision-making for financial institutions, corporations, and government institutions.

Our mailing address is:
Four Twenty Seven
2000 Hearst Ave
Ste 304
Berkeley, CA 94709

The California Heat Assessment Tool

As California’s climate warms, residents increasingly endure extreme heat events that adversely impact public health. This exacerbates existing risks and will bring new challenges for different regions in the state, threatening the efficacy of traditional intervention strategies. Current thresholds for heat alerts are based on temperatures that exceed historical statistical thresholds, rather than temperatures that cause public health impacts. These ‘health-neutral’ thresholds may underestimate the health risks for the most sensitive populations. The new California Heat Assessment Tool (CHAT) is based on research that establishes local, health-based thresholds for extreme heat that help public officials, health professionals and residents understand what changing conditions mean for them. CHAT is part of California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, a state-mandated research program to assess climate change impacts in California, and was developed by Four Twenty Seven, Argos Analytics, the Public Health Institute and Habitat 7 with technical support from the California Department of Public Health.

Explore CHAT at cal-heat.org.  This online tool advances the understanding of what types of heat waves pose public health risks and examines how the frequency and severity of local heat waves are expected to change over time due to climate change.

Read a brief report, The California Heat Assessment Tool: Planning for the Health Impacts of Extreme Heat, that shares key findings from the research and summarizes the data analysis visualized in the tool.

Access the technical report detailing technical methodology and view other projects funded by the California Fourth Climate Change Assessment.

Access the users needs assessment for a detailed explanation of the literature review and interview process that defines the data gap the research team addressed.

Download the full press release.

Key Takeaways

  • Current climate change projections show that a typical California summer in 2100 may be 4-5° F warmer than today. Heat waves are also lasting longer, occurring later into the summer season and in areas less accustomed to heat waves.
  • Elderly or very young people, outdoor workers and individuals with preexisting health conditions or limited resources are most sensitive to the impacts of extreme heat and may be disproportionately affected. Some of these sensitive, or frontline, populations may experience adverse health impacts at temperatures 6-8° F lower than the general population.
  • Current thresholds for heat alerts are based on temperatures that exceed certain statistical thresholds, rather than temperatures that cause public health impacts. These health-neutral thresholds may underestimate the health risks for the most sensitive populations.
  • The online California Heat Assessment Tool (cal-heat.org) allows users to visualize projected changes in heat events that cause adverse health impacts, while also exploring data on social, health and environmental factors that contribute to heat vulnerability.

Weathering Wildfires: 427 Interview

Director of Analytics, Nik Steinberg, discusses wildfire risk, impacts and prevention efforts, on the Midday Briefing. Nik explains implications of increasingly frequent and severe wildfires for the insurance industry and homeowners and shares several ideas for adapting to these risks. While fires have always occurred, climate change is changing the landscape of the wildland-urban interface and residents and policy-makers must understand their wildfire risks and implement preventative strategies. The economic implications are huge for utilities, shareholders and communities, but with intentional planning businesses, governments and residents have the opportunity to mitigate loss.

 

Public Health System Resilience Scorecard

Climate change will continue to adversely affect public health by threatening sanitation, altering the distribution of vector-borne disease, increasing the need for effective heat wave responses, introducing new mental health challenges and more. To help cities understand their vulnerability to these impacts and build resilience, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) developed a Public Health System Resilience Addendum for its Disaster Resilience Scorecard for cities.

The addendum includes 24 questions, defining a 0-5 scale for practitioners to quantify their responses (see example below). The questions cover the integration of public health with each of UNISDR’s Ten Essentials for Making Cities Resilient: disaster governance, disaster scenarios, finances, land use and building codes, ecosystem services, institutional capacity, societal capacity, infrastructure resilience, disaster response, and disaster recovery.

By capturing all of the possible weak spots in the broader health system, the addendum is meant to be a tool for mainstreaming public health considerations into disaster risk reduction plans, rather than just serving as a one-time assessment.  Using this integrated approach can help city officials build resilience over time. Recent events like the power outage that led to eight deaths in a Florida nursing home after Hurricane Irma demonstrate the preventable nature of many public health disasters. Ensuring that critical facilities have backup power supplies and that potential hazards are effectively communicated are ways in which effective planning can mitigate loss. By understanding existing vulnerabilities and how these will worsen with climate change, officials can implement essential adaptation measures that will save lives.

Four Twenty Seven contributed to this addendum and has developed a methodology to assess climate risk exposure in U.S. cities and counties. We are continuing research on quantifying local resilience to climate impacts and supporting public health responses to climate change. The forthcoming California Heat Assessment Tool will provide public health officials with an interactive platform to understand the projected increase in extreme heat events in each California census tract, based on the sensitivity of the local populations. It will also show the distribution of frontline individuals, such as the elderly, to inform effective local heat responses. This free, user-friendly tool will be live in mid-August.

Responding to Economic Climate Risk in Australia

June 25, 2018 – 427 REPORT. Regulatory pressure and financial damage are necessitating an increase in physical climate risk disclosure in Australia. In exercising their own due diligence and assessing the exposure to physical climate risks in their portfolios, investors arm themselves with valuable information on corporate risk exposure which they can leverage to engage with companies around resilience. This report explores the connection between climate hazards and financial risks and shares examples of corporate adaptation and investor engagement to build resilience.

The global tide of interest in the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) has hit the shores of Australian financial markets, steered by regulators concerned about the systemic risk climate change poses to the economy. In 2017 Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s Geoff Summerhayes was the first Australian regulator to formally endorse the TCFD. “Some climate risks are distinctly ‘financial’ in nature. Many of these risks are foreseeable, material and actionable now,” he said. This sentiment was echoed by John Price of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission in 2018 and reflects growing regulatory concern over climate risk disclosure internationally, as shown by Article 173 of France’s Law on Energy Transition and Green Growth and the 2018 European Commission Action Plan.

This Four Twenty Seven Report, Responding to Economic Climate Risk in Australia, explores the drivers of financial risk in Australia and discusses approaches to addressing this risk. The nation’s dominant industries are particularly threatened by the prevalent climate hazards. For investors, understanding a company’s risk to climate change is an essential first step to mitigating portfolio risk, but must be followed by corporate engagement to build resilience. Institutional investors are increasingly leveraging shareholder resolutions and direct engagement to prompt companies to disclose their climate risks and adapt.

Key Findings

  • Australia’s “Angry Summer” of extreme weather in 2013 cost the economy $8 billion and was followed by another summer of extremes in 2016-2017.
  • Construction, mining and manufacturing constitute almost 20 percent of Australia’s economy and are highly vulnerable to heat stress and water stress, which threaten large swaths of the nation.
  • Boral Limited and Rio Tinto are both Materials companies exposed to water and heat stress in their operations, but they have different risk scores stemming from differing vulnerabilities in their markets and supply chains.
  • Engagement on climate is relatively new for Australian shareholders, but is gaining momentum, with institutional asset managers voting on several climate risk disclosure resolutions in 2018.
  • Investors can address physical climate risk by reviewing their asset allocations, disclosing their own risks, investing in new opportunities and engaging with corporations.

Download the report.

Webinar: Emerging Metrics for Physical Climate Risks Disclosures

This Four Twenty Seven webinar on emerging metrics and best practices for physical climate risks and opportunities disclosures covers recent developments in TCFD and Article 173 reporting, challenges to assessing climate risk exposure, strategies for investors to incorporate this information into decision-making and approaches to build corporate resilience.

Speakers

  1. Emilie Mazzacurati, Founder and CEO, presents key findings from the EBRD-GCECA report: Advancing TCFD guidance on physical climate risks and opportunities and emerging best practices in physical risk reporting.
  2. Nik Steinberg, Director of Analytics, shares challenges and approaches for using climate data for business decisions.
  3. Frank Freitas, Chief Development Officer, discusses corporate engagement opportunities for investors and approaches to integrating climate change into investment strategies.
  4. Yoon Kim, Director of Advisory Services, shares examples of innovation in corporate resilience-building.

Engaging with Corporates to Build Adaptive Capacity

June 5, 2018 – 427 REPORT. Shareholder engagement is a critical tool to build resilience in investment portfolios. Investors can help raise awareness of rising risks from climate change, and encourage companies to invest in responsible corporate adaptation measures. We identify top targets for shareholder engagement on physical climate risks and provide data-driven strategies for choosing companies and approaching engagement. Our report includes sample questions as an entry point for investors’ conversations about climate risk and resilience with corporations.

Shareholder engagement on climate change has grown tremendously in recent years. Over 270 investors, managing almost $30 trillion collectively, have committed to engage with the largest greenhouse gas emitters through the Climate Action 100+. In addition to their ongoing efforts to engage and encourage companies to reduce emissions, investors are becoming aware of the financial risks from extreme weather and climate change. Climate change increases downside risks: a negative repricing of assets is already being seen where climate impacts are most obvious, such as coastal areas of Miami. As climate change can negatively impact company valuations, investors must strive to bolster governance and adaptive capacity to help companies build resilience.

This Four Twenty Seven report, From Risk to Resilience – Engaging with Corporates to Build Adaptive Capacity, explains the value of engagement, for both corporations and investors and describes data and case studies to drive engagement strategies. While news coverage of extreme weather events can clue investors in to which corporations may be experiencing climate-driven financial damage, new data can empower investors to identify systemic climate risk factors and proactively engage companies likely to experience impacts in the future. Reactive engagement strategies based on news stories can also use data to more thoroughly explore corporations highlighted in the news, by examining other hazards that may pose harm to their operations.

The report also identifies the Top 10 companies with the highest exposure to physical climate risk in the Climate Action 100+ and calls for investors to leverage their engagement on emissions to also address urgent issues around climate impacts and building resilience.

Once they identify companies, shareholders can use a variety of questions to gain a deeper understanding of companies’ vulnerability to climate hazards and their governance and planning processes, or adaptive capacity, to build resilience to such impacts. The report provides sample questions for different components of climate risk, including Operations Risk, Market Risk and Supply Chain Risk, as well as Adaptive Capacity.

Key Takeaways

• The impacts of a changing climate pose significant downside risk for companies; a risk bound to increase as the climate continues to degrade.
• At present, investors are likely to become aware of exposure to financial damages from extreme weather events only after they have occurred. Disclosure is limited but gaining traction.
• Corporate engagement is a tool to encourage companies to deploy capital and technical assistance to build resilience in their operations and supply chains.
• Investors can select target companies reactively based on prior incidents or pro-actively identify firms that would benefit from resilience plans.
• Investors should question companies on their exposure to physical climate risks via their operations, supply chain and market, as well as how they are building resilience to these risks through risk management and responsible corporate adaptation strategies.

Download the report.

Download the press release.

Webinar: Building City-level Climate Resilience

This Four Twenty Seven webinar familiarizes participants with an approach for assessing city-level physical climate risks and provides insight into concrete actions that cities can take to more effectively attract investor financing for climate adaptation and resilience.

Speakers

  1.  Nik Steinberg (Director of Analytics, Four Twenty Seven) provides an overview of Four Twenty Seven’s approach to assessing city-level physical climate risks.
  2. Lisa Schroeer (Senior Director and Sector Leader, S&P Global) speaks about how the ratings agency is incorporating physical climate risks into its view of city and county  credit risk.
  3. Ksenia Koban (Vice President and Municipal Strategist, Payden & Rygel) offers insight into the factors that investors are looking at when determining whether to make city-level climate resilience investments and what cities can do more successfully to attract investor financing for climate adaptation and resilience.

Read Four Twenty Seven’s report on Assessing Exposure to Climate Change in U.S. Munies and learn more about our advisory services for risk assessments, adaptation finance and policy consulting.

Every City Has its Hazards: 427 Interview

Chief Development Officer, Frank Freitas, discusses Four Twenty Seven’s report on Assessing Exposure to Climate Risk in U.S. Municipalities on the Midday Briefing. During this brief interview Frank describes Four Twenty Seven’s work as a data provider for investors, highlights the ubiquity of climate hazards across United States munies and explains the impact of both acute events like hurricanes and more subtlety destructive chronic stresses such as drought.