Using Climate Data – 427 Technical Brief

April 25, 2018 – 427 TECHNICAL BRIEF. Financial institutions, corporations, and governments  increasingly strive to identify and respond to risks driven by physical climate impacts. Understanding the risks posed by climate change for facilities or infrastructure assets starts with conducting a risk assessment, which requires an understanding of the physical impacts of climate change. However, climate data in its raw form is difficult to integrate into enterprise risk management, financial risk modelling processes, and capital planning. This primer provides a brief introduction to climate models and data from a business or government perspective.

The first of several reports explaining the data and climate hazards analyzed in Four Twenty Seven’s equity risk scores and portfolio analytics, Using Climate Data unpacks the process through which raw climate data is transformed into usable metrics, such as future temperature projections, to help financial, corporate and government users productively incorporate climate-based analytics into their workflows. Beginning by explaining what a global climate model is, the report explains climate data’s format, computational choices to hedge uncertainty and resources for aggregated climate projections tailored to specific audiences.

Key  Takeaways

  • Climate models are simulations of the Earth’s future conditions. Climate projections are based on a compilation of many models and are publicly available.
  • Regional climate models and statistical downscaling improve the resolution of data produced by global climate models and are thus valuable options when projections are only needed for one location or several in the same region.
  • Climate models can be used to project future trends in temperature and precipitation, but can not project discrete storms or local flooding from sea level rise, which require additional data and analysis.
  • Different time horizons of climate projections have different strengths and limitations so it is important to select the data product best suited to a specific project’s goal.
  • There are several drivers of uncertainty in climate models and strategies to hedge this uncertainty can help users correctly interpret and use climate projections.

Download the Report.

Winter Storm Riley Threatens Pharmaceuticals and Airlines

March 2, 2018 – 427 ANALYSIS. As Winter Storm Riley threatens to flood the Boston area, we find pharmaceuticals and airlines industries are most exposed to flood risk.  Boston is a hub for both research and industry and the long-lasting financial consequences could be dramatic for some of the corporations with facilities in low-lying areas. 

Only two months after Winter Storm Grayson flooded Boston with its highest water level on record (4.88ft), Winter Storm Riley is now inundating the city and is predicted to bring water levels about 4.5ft above average high tide levels. The timing of Riley exacerbates this flood risk, as the storm surge is on top of already higher than average tides associated with the full moon.

Figure 1. Facilities in downtown Boston and Cambridge are particularly exposed to coastal flooding. Red represents the most exposed facilities while green shows the least exposed. Source: Four Twenty Seven

The greater Boston area is a hub for both research and industry and as this flooding is expected to worsen into the evening, the long-lasting financial consequences could be dramatic. Four Twenty Seven’s database of corporate facilities shows several industries and companies most exposed to coastal flooding. Our coastal flooding risk indicator measures exposure for low-lying facilities considering a combination of future sea level rise and storm surge from storms of varying intensity. A facility with high risk is likely to flood even during low intensity storms (e.g. 1 in 10 year events) and is also likely to experience a relatively large increase in storm surge.

Figure 2. Pharmaceutical facility exposure to coastal flooding in the greater Boston area. Red represents the most exposed facilities while green shows the least exposed. Source: Four Twenty Seven

Pharmaceutical companies are highly vulnerable to flooding in Boston, with medical research facilities and pharmaceutical preparation sites belonging to Eli Lilly and Pfizer showing the most risk. This industry exposure is particularly alarming given the thousands of lab animals (often kept in basements) and years’ worth of research that were lost by cancer and neuroscience research labs that were flooded during Hurricane Sandy. The recovery of these facilities required months and extensive funds, affecting this industry long after the storm.

Figure 3. Airline facility exposure to coastal flooding in the greater Boston area. Red represents the most exposed facilities while green shows the least exposed. Source: Four Twenty Seven

Airlines and other related airport services companies are also likely to be badly impacted by today’s storm. Storm damage of runways takes time and funds to repair, while impacting travelers and airlines in wide-reaching causal chains. While the location of Boston Logan International Airport makes it particularly vulnerable, the scheduling offices of airlines such as Delta and United are also largely exposed. Thus, in addition to costly delays and cancellations due to the local conditions, these airlines may experience more widespread scheduling difficulties if these buildings are inundated.

While understanding the long-term economic impacts of Winter Storm Riley will take many months, these findings highlight potential implications for the pharmaceutical and airline industries, their investors, and those who rely on their services.

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Four Twenty Seven’s ever-growing database now includes close to one million corporate sites and covers over 1800 publicly-traded companies. We offer subscription products and advisory services to access this unique dataset. Options include data feeds, an interactive analytics platform and company scorecards, as well as custom portfolio analysis and benchmarking.

Lenders’ Guide for Considering Climate Risk in Infrastructure Investments

Climate change poses multifaceted physical risks for infrastructure investors, affecting revenue, maintenance costs, asset value and liability. According to the New Climate Economy report, global demand for new infrastructure investment could be  over US$90 trillion between 2015 and 2017. It is becoming increasingly clear that climate change must be considered in all infrastructure investment and construction.

Four Twenty Seven, in collaboration with our partners Acclimatise and Climate Finance Advisers, published a “Lenders’ Guide for Considering Climate Risk in Infrastructure Investments” to explain the ways in which physical climate risks might affect key financial aspects of prospective infrastructure investments.

Climate Change and Infrastructure

The guide begins with a discussion of climate risk, acknowledging that climate change can also open opportunities such as improving resource efficiency, building resilience and developing new products. It provides a framework for questioning how revenues, costs, and assets can be linked to potential project vulnerability arising from climate hazards.

Revenues: Climate change can cause operational disruptions that lead to a decrease in business activities and thus decreased revenue. For example, higher temperatures alter airplanes’ aerodynamic performance and lead to a need for longer runways. In the face of consistently higher temperatures, airlines may seek airports with longer runways, shifting revenue from those that cannot provide the necessary facilities.

Costs/Expenditures: Extreme weather events can cause service disruptions, but can also damage infrastructure, requiring additional unplanned repair costs. For example, storms often lead to downed power lines which disrupts services but also necessitates that companies spend time and money to return the power lines to operating conditions.

Assets: Physical climate impacts can decrease value of tangible assets by damaging infrastructure and potentially shortening its lifetime. Intangible assets can be negatively impacted by damages to brand image and reputation through repeated service disruptions.

Liabilities: Climate change is likely to pose increasing liability risk as disclosure and preparation requirements become more widespread. As infrastructure is damaged and regulations evolve, companies may face increased insurance premiums and costs associated with retrofitting infrastructure and ensuring compliance.

Capital and Financing: As expenditures increase in the face of extreme weather events, debt is also likely to increase. Likewise, as operations and revenues are impacted and asset values decrease, capital raising may become more difficult.

The guide also draws attention to the potential opportunities emerging from resilience-oriented investments in infrastructure. There are both physical and financial strategies that can be leveraged to manage climate-related risks, such as replacing copper cables with more resilient fiber-optic ones and creating larger debt service and maintenance reserves.

Climate Risks and Opportunities: Sub-Sector Snapshots

The guide includes ten illustrative “snapshots” describing climate change considerations in the example sub-industries of Gas and Oil Transport and Storage; Power Transmission and Distribution; Wind-Based Power Distribution; Telecommunications; Data Centers; Commercial Real Estate; Healthcare; and Sport and Entertainment. Each snapshot includes a description of the sub-sector, an estimation of its global potential market, examples of observed impacts on specific assets, and potential financial impacts from six climate-related hazards: temperature, sea-level rise, precipitation & flood, storms, drought and water stress.

Commercial real-estate, for example, refers to properties used only for business purposes and includes office spaces, restaurants, hotels, stores, gas stations and others. By 2030 this market is expected to exceed US $1 trillion per annum compared to $450 billion per annum in 2012. Climate impacts for this sub-sector include hazard-specific risks and also include the general risk factor of climate-driven migration which drives shifts in supply and demand in the real estate market.

As heat waves increase in frequency, people will likely seek refuge in cool public buildings, leading to increasing property values for those places such as shopping malls that provide air-conditioned spaces for community members. Increasing frequency and intensity of storms may damage commercial infrastructure, leading to recovery costs and increased insurance costs. Real estate managers may have to make additional investments in water treatment facilities to ensure the viability of their assets in regions faced with decreased water availability. An example of the financial impacts of climate change on this sub-sector can be seen in Houston after Hurricane Harvey. After the hurricane hit Texas in August 2017, approximately 27% of Houston commercial real estate was impacted by flooding and these 12,000 properties were worth about US$55 billion.

Download the Lenders’ Guide. 

For more guidance on investing for resilience, read the Planning and Investing for a Resilient California guidance document and the GARI Investor Guide to Physical Climate Risk and Resilience.

Newsletter: Climate Implications of Trump, Extreme Heat and the TCFD

 

 

TCFD to Release Final Report This Week

The FSB Task force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) will release its final report this week, on Thursday June 29. The report will be presented to the G20 in Italy on July 7-8. While it is uncertain whether the G20 will formally endorse the report given the Trump administration’s stance on climate change, the ripples from the report in transforming how financial markets view and think about climate risk are already being felt, and with or without further formal regulations, we expect investors will continue their call for greater transparency on climate risk and concrete strategies on decarbonization and adaptation. The public consultation conducted this spring showed the draft recommendations were generally well received by corporations and financial institutions alike. An average 75% of respondents found the recommendations useful, but non-financial corporations were unconvinced of the need for scenario planning whereas financial institutions were very supportive. Respondents were unanimous in calling for more detailed guidance and tools for the implementation of the recommendations, and the TCFD has now announced its work was extended through September 2018 to help support the implementation and dissemination of the recommendations.

More information on the TCFD, its recommendations and implications for corporations and investors:

Why BlackRock is Worried about Climate Change: Investors and Systemic Risk to the Financial System http://bit.ly/2s7plig

The Health Costs of Extreme Heat

Record-setting temperatures and deadly heat waves have dominated the news these past weeks. Earlier this month came reports of a historic heat wave covering Asia, the Middle East, and Europe with Turbat, Pakistan experiencing record temperatures of 128.3°F (53.5°C), marking it as the hottest temperature ever recorded in May as well as one of Earth’s top-five temperatures on record for any month.

A study released last week found that 30% of Earth’s population is experiencing deadly heat for more than 20 days a year, and unless actions are taken to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, climate change will result to close to 75% of the population exposed to deadly heat every year. Further proof comes from a new mapping tool released by Climate Impact Lab which takes data from NASA’s climate models to estimate how frequently a country will experience days of 95°F+ temperatures if emissions continue to rise through 2100. NOAA’s Climate Resilience Toolkit contains a wealth of information and tools on how to prepare for heat waves and health impacts of climate change in the U.S., including Four Twenty Seven’s Heat and Social Equity Tool, which combine projections from global climate models with socioeconomic indicators of heat vulnerability to compare the complex components of heat risk and resilience by county in the U.S. We also offer a tool to understand the impacts of extreme heat in India as part of the India Heat Impact Project.

The true risk of climate change is the inability to adapt to the changes it brings. Prepare for heat waves: http://arcg.is/2gLss9a by @427climaterisk

Trump and Paris: What Impacts on Climate?

The loss of the United States’ participation in the Paris Agreement is a blow to international climate efforts, though not fatal. In the wake of President Trump’s announcement to withdraw from the agreement, uncertainty has grown in the climate science and adaptation fields. Both domestically and internationally, leaders have reached out to form new coalitions for U.S. states, cities, and businesses to take the lead and continue pursuing what the nation had committed to as a whole. Read our analysis: Trump and Paris: What Impact on Climate?

Trump and Paris: What Impacts on Climate? http://bit.ly/2scv7e0 via @427climaterisk

Audio Blog: Latest Innovations in ESG Investing

Investors are increasingly aware of options to invest responsibly, yet the myth persists that ESG investing sacrifices financial returns. At this year’s Sustainatopia conference held in San Francisco, Four Twenty Seven’s Director of Finance Colin Shaw joined a panel aiming to tackle the issue and present new ideas and tools for helping investors. Colin presented on measuring climate risk in financial portfolios, and the need for more climate data in order to better provide guidance to businesses for their risk management planning. Listen to the panel to learn new ways to steer investment towards sustainable solutions.

Meet the Team: Yvonne Burgess

Yvonne BurgessFour Twenty Seven is proud to welcome Yvonne Burgess to our team as Chief Systems Architect. Yvonne has extensive experience in information systems, project management, and software project management. As a Chief Systems Architect, Yvonne is leading the development of our data architecture, modeling and product road-map for a new generation of climate risk analytics products. Yvonne’s experience spans across startups, Fortune 500 corporations, and federal contracting work, blending deep technical expertise with strategic planning and thought leadership. Yvonne holds a Master of Science in Systems Management in organization development and information technology from the University of Southern California, as well as a Bachelor of Business Administration.

Upcoming Events

Join the Four Twenty Seven team in the field at these upcoming events:

  • July 26: GARI meeting, New York: Four Twenty Seven CEO Emilie Mazzacurati will join the Global Adaptation and Resilience Investment working group to discuss their forthcoming publication on climate risk in the financial sector.
  • August 24-25: California Climate Action Planning Conference, San Luis Obispo, CA: Climate Adaptation Senior Analyst, Kendall Starkman will discuss local and regional climate adaptation/mitigation planning.
  • September 18-24: Climate Week NYC 2017, New York, NY: Four Twenty Seven – details to be announced.
  • September 25-27: PRI in Person 2017, Berlin, Germany: Founder and CEO, Emilie Mazzacurati will present Four Twenty Seven’s work on financial climate risk and analytics to build resilient portfolios.


Four Twenty Seven Climate Solutions

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Newsletter: The New Normal

 

 

News and analysis on climate change adaptation.


Four Twenty Seven Climate Solutions

Planning for Heat Waves: Heat and Social Equity in the United States


With an extreme snowstorm headed to the East Coast ready to wipe out early shoots and buds from February’s record-breaking heat, increasing variability in weather events is on the minds of many. To help with preparations for future heat events and understand the new normal, Four Twenty Seven has developed a tool to understand how heat vulnerability is increasing in the United States. This series of maps combine projections from global climate models with socioeconomic indicators of heat vulnerability to compare the complex and interconnected components of heat risk and resilience by county.

The maps feature a composite “Heat Vulnerability Score” indicator, created by Four Twenty Seven and peer-reviewed by CDC and NOAA, to identify vulnerable areas at the county level. This free tool can be used to discuss climate change impacts on public health with doctors, nurses and other professionals in the healthcare sector, to bolster to community engagement and long-term adaptation planning and is now featured on NOAA’s Climate Resilience Toolkit.

Mapping Climate Vulnerability in Denver

Extreme heat associated with changing climate conditions are expected to present challenges to human health through impacts such as heat stress. Working with Denver’s Department of Environmental Health, Four Twenty Seven developed a heat and Health Vulnerability Index and Story Map to illustrate the spatial patterns of vulnerability to extreme heat within the City of Denver. The interactive story map will help policymakers and community groups determine which areas and communities are most vulnerable and assess how the built environment, demographic factors, and elements of human health contribute to neighborhood-level vulnerabilities.

The Denver Department of Environmental Health will use the index and Story Map to evaluate neighborhood vulnerabilities, highlight how to reduce risks to vulnerable populations, and facilitate the integration of health and vulnerable populations into climate change priorities.

Protecting Against Risk to Climate Data Itself 

Starting with the White House website, the Trump administration is in the process of editing page content for multiple federal departments and agencies to remove references to climate change. This dismissive attitude towards climate change  most recently culminated by new EPA administrator Scott Pruitt’s false assertion that CO2 is not a ‘primary contributor’ to global warming in his first address to the agency. The same week, the EPA’s Office of Science and Technology Policy removed “science” from its mission statement.
Fearing for the datasets that support climate policy, a coalition of scientists and researchers has organized to rescue data from government websites. In February, analysts from Four Twenty Seven joined nearly 200 Bay Area open-data activists in a DataRefuge event at UC Berkeley. As a part of the larger nation-wide effort, the Berkeley event focused on NASA and DOE data, flagging over 8000 related webpages and backing-up many critical datasets.

Hottest. Year. Ever.

NOAA reported that in 2016, the record for the global average surface temperature was broken again. The global average of 58.69°F was the highest since recording began in 1880, or 1.69°F above the 20th century average. It was also the third year in a row that the record has been broken, and fifth year since the start of the century. So far, 2017 is seeing a continuation of the global warming trend with record-breaking heat in many part of the United States in February. (Image courtesy of Climate Central)

California Heat & Health Project

California's Fourth Climate Change AssessmentAs part of California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, Four Twenty Seven is developing a tool to inform planning efforts to mitigate the public health impacts of extreme heat across the state.

In the first phase of this project, Four Twenty Seven conducted an extensive user needs assessment, summarized in a report, California Heat & Health Project: A Decision Support Tool. The report shows the challenges and limitations of emergency response to extreme heat, and finds that the greatest strides can be made through interventions planned well ahead of time, such as changes in the urban design and social programs. The tool will be released in the fall 2017.

Read the report: California Heat & Health Project: A Decision Support Tool

Webinar: Incorporating Climate Adaptation in Local Plans

March 29th at 10am PST

Register Today

Don’t miss the upcoming webinar discussing the requirements and timeline for the implementation of California’s Senate Bill 379, which calls on cities and counties to incorporate adaptation and resilience strategies into local hazard mitigation plans and the safety element of general plans. Director of Advisory Services Yoon Kim will join the panel to share replicable strategies and good practices from Four Twenty Seven’s work with six cities in Alameda County.

Upcoming Events

Join the Four Twenty Seven team in the field at these upcoming events:

  • March 29Webinar: Incorporating Climate Adaptation in Local Plans co-hosted with ARCCA. See above for details.
  • April 6-7: 6th Stranded Assets Forum, Waddesdon Manor, UK: Meet with CEO Emilie Mazzacurati to discuss the use of asset data to measure financial climate risk.
  • April 20: The ProAdapt Symposium, Washington, DC: Emilie Mazzacurati will join the symposium from the Inter-American Development Bank, “Climate Risk and Investment: Framing Private Challenges and Opportunities”.
  • April 20: UC Philomathia Forum, Berkeley, CA: Director of Finance Colin Shaw will join a panel on how startups are using data science to advance environmental sustainability.
  • April 26-27: Ceres Conference, San Francisco, CA: Meet Emilie Mazzacurati to learn more about Four Twenty Seven’s services for investors.
  • May 7-10Sustainatopia, San Francisco, CA: Emilie Mazzacurati will present on how investors approach the physical risks of climate change.
  • May 9-11: National Adaptation Forum, St. Paul, MN: Yoon Kim will present on a panel on Innovations in Adaptation Finance, and Aleka Seville will facilitate a pre-conference workshop to discuss findings on climate adaptation investing.
  • May 17-18: Women and the Environment, Santa Barbara, CA: Aleka Seville will present on the role of entrepreneurs in climate adaptation.
  • May 25: Silicon Valley Energy & Sustainability Summit, Redwood Shores, CA: Join Emilie Mazzacurati to discuss corporate climate risk and resilience strategies.

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Audio Blog: Climate Data & Public Health, Mobilizing Adaptation Action

Director of Advisory Services Yoon Kim moderated a panel at the 2017 National Conference and Global Forum for Science, Policy, and the Environment. The session, titled “Climate Data and Public Health: Mobilizing Adaptation Action”, explored the role of interactive data tools in the adaptation continuum – from diagnosis to planning to solutions – through concrete case studies. Presenters brought local public health and private sector hospital perspectives from across the United States. You can listen to a full recording of the panel here, and follow along with the presentation slides.



Panelists:

  • Cyndy Comerford, Manager of Policy and Planning, San Francisco Department of Public Health
  • Michele Shimomura, Public Health Manager, Denver Department of Environmental Health
  • James Evans, Sustainability Analyst, Cleveland Clinic
  • Deborah Weinstock, Director of the National Clearinghouse for Worker Safety and Health Training, Michael D. Baker, Inc.
  • Jennifer de Mooy, Climate Adaptation Project Manager, Delaware Division of Energy and Climate

California Heat & Health Project

California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment

As part of California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, Four Twenty Seven is working with project partners to develop a tool that will inform long-term planning efforts to communicate the urgency of and mitigate the public health impacts of increasing extreme heat events across the state.

The Challenge of Heat Events in California

The number of extreme heat days in California are projected to increase from currently around ten a year to 25-50 by 2050, and upwards of 100 by the end of the century. Extreme heat has major impacts on human health, especially on the most vulnerable populations.

The California Heat & Health Project is funded by the California Energy Commission as part of the California Fourth Climate Change Assessment to develop an interactive, user-friendly tool that will provide public health and planning stakeholders with detailed projections on extreme heat events and the potential health impacts for local communities.

User Needs Report

California Heat & Health Project: A Decision Support ToolTo better inform this tool, we conducted a robust literature review and user needs assessment to understand how the California Heat and Health Project can best inform and improve current efforts in all California regions. Our report outlines our key findings from this research including results from an online survey and interviews with public health, planning and emergency preparedness stakeholders throughout California.

Our research shows the limitations of emergency response to prevent the health impacts of heat waves. The greatest strides can be made through interventions planned well ahead of time, such as changes in the urban design and social programs. Therefore, we conclude that a new online decision support tool is best geared towards informing mid and long-term interventions to reduce the public health impacts of extreme heat.

The online decision support tool is currently in development, and will be available in the fall of 2017 through Cal-Adapt, the state’s adaptation portal.

Download the report

 


 

Founded in 2012, Four Twenty Seven is an award-winning climate risk and resilience research and advisory firm that brings climate intelligence to economic and financial decision-makers. Four Twenty Seven helps investorsFortune 500 companies and government institutions understand how to quantify and monetize climate change impacts on operations as well as social factors that affect their value chain. Customers rely on Four Twenty Seven’s tools and models to factor into financial and operational planning processes. Four Twenty Seven’s team is comprised of highly qualified professionals with backgrounds in climate science, economics and finance, natural resources management, policy analysis, public health, and international development.

Newsletter: All Hands on Deck!

 

 

The Global Impacts of Droughts and Extreme Heat


From the Desk of Emilie

Better data. More efficient technology. New sources of financing. The recipe to address global impacts of climate change — such as drought, the focus of this month’s newsletter — is very much the same as in the U.S. But the needs are more pressing, and the ingredients even harder to find.

As I write from the ProAdapt conference in Cartagena, Colombia, I can’t help but notice how the discourse on the private sector has changed in the past years. Many government agencies, donors,  and NGOs now beat the drums of private sector resilience – for its own sake, and also as a critical provider of products and services to support community adaptation efforts.

Such products and services are still nascent,  but I’m confident this clear signal will help grow the market and spur innovation and investments. Fellow entrepreneurs and business folks: our ingenuity and resources are needed to build climate resilience. All hands on deck!


Emilie Mazzacurati, Founder and CEO

ProAdapt: The Challenge and Opportunity of Private Sector Climate Resilience

Emilie is at the Proadapt conference on The Challenge and Opportunity of Private Sector Climate Resilience in Cartagena de Indias, Columbia from May 25-27th. Emilie will join a panel discussion on A Strategic View of Private Climate Resilience. The panel will discuss evolving private awareness of climate risks and resilience in their sectors, changing business strategies and continuing barriers to private action on climate resilience. Emilie will highlight opportunities for the private sector to offer products and services that help bridge the adaptation gap and make the business case for responsible corporate adaptation.

Insights in Resilience: International Adaptation

 

“In the international arena, we’re currently seeing a shift from a focus on immediate adaptation needs to a more strategic, longer-term approach to adaptation planning.” Read our interview of Yoon Kim, Director of Advisory Services at Four Twenty Seven, about her work on international adaptation and for insights from her recent trip to the 2016 Adaptation Futures Conference in Rotterdam Netherlands.

Learn more about her work, and stay up to date with the latest in international adaptation.

Back from the (Adaptation) Futures

Yoon attended Adaptation Futures in Rotterdam from May 10th-13th. On May 10th, she spoke about Four Twenty Seven’s Resilient Hospitals tool on a panel about financing solutions to address the health risks of climate change organized by the World Bank. Yoon also co-presented a poster on the US Agency for International Development’s (USAID) approach to climate-resilient development and National Adaptation Plans. She and her co-authors provided an overview of how USAID’s approach has been applied through stakeholder workshops to catalyze National Adaptation Plan processes in Jamaica, Tanzania, and 11 coastal West African countries and summarized lessons learned to inform development and implementation of National Adaptation Plan processes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

What We’re Reading: Lancet Study connects Climate Change and  Disruption of Global Food Systems

Climate change is having a direct impact on the productivity of the world’s crops, and a new Oxford study warns that 500,000 lives are at risk by 2050 due to disruption of global food systems caused by the impacts climate change.

The report in The Lancet indicates that droughts, floods, and other climate-related impacts “will lead to per-person reductions of 2-3% in global food availability, 0-4% in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0-7%  in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide, representing a 28% reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050.”

Read the Report or Washington Post Article

Better Data for a Better World:  Forecasting Drought

We are always on the lookout for climate data that represent advancements in observational data sets that can improve projections of the impacts of climate change, and we found one.

“The data set, called CHIRPS (short for “Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation With Station data”) blends data from weather stations and weather satellites with extraordinary accuracy, providing a detailed record of global rainfall stretching back more than 30 years.” The data is being used to project the impacts of extreme drought and improve resilience for those vulnerable to extreme heat caused by climate change.

More about CHIRPS from journalist Eric Holthaus

India’s drought migrants head to cities in desperate search for water

The links between extreme heat and climate change are becoming clear in India where drought is driving rural populations to cities in search of water.

In cities like Mumbai, which are already struggling to provide essential services to their already large populations influxes of climate migrants places additional stress on resources that are becoming more scarce due to climate change.

“The drought has affected 330 million people in India this year, according to government figures. About 15% of India’s gross domestic product comes from agriculture and 68% of the 1.3 billion population are farmers. With no water for irrigation, the drought has been devastating for farmers.”

Learn more about the impacts of drought in India.

Meet the Team: Claire Quiner, MPH

We are excited to announce the latest addition to our team: Claire Quiner. Claire joins as a senior analyst to support Four Twenty Seven’s growing climate health practice.

With a dual background in Public Health and Environmental Planning, Claire specializes in infectious diseases and brings six years of experience working in molecular virology. Her previous work investigated how viruses interact with their hosts (e.g. mosquitoes) and vectors to evolve. Through her research, she also collaborated with the Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention on emerging infectious diseases, whose rise is related to global trends including climate change and urbanization. Her current point of interest is the interface of climate change and public health and what municipalities can do to prevent infectious diseases epidemics and other climate health emergencies.

Claire earned Masters degrees in Public Health-Epidemiology/Biostatistics as well as City and Regional Planning from the University of California-Berkeley in 2016 and Bachelor of Science in Biology from Alverno College, Milwaukee, WI in 2007.

Clevland Clinic and Four Twenty Seven win Verdantix Information Management Award

We are excited to announce that Cleveland Clinic and Four Twenty Seven were awarded one of the inaugural EH&S Information Management Awards at the Vendantix Summit 2016. Cleveland Clinic is one of nine health care networks across the US currently putting our Resilient Hospital Dashboard to use to inform their climate focused outreach and communications and to guide their resilience planning efforts.
See the Resilient Hospital Dashboard

Upcoming Events

Join our team in the field at these upcoming events

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Newsletter: Climate and Health

 

 

The Nexus of Climate and Human Health


From the Desk of Emilie

Climate change has major impacts on human health. From heat waves to floods, from poor air quality to the spread of vector-borne disease like Zika, many climate hazards translate directly into measurable negative effects on human quality of life.

Our team has been working with key healthcare actors to help them identify how climate change could affect their ability to serve their patients and communities and better prepare. Learn more on how we help solve some of humanity’s most pressing challenges in this month’s newsletter on the nexus of climate and human health.

Emilie Mazzacurati, Founder and CEO

Four Twenty Seven Wins 2015 Climate Change Business Journal Award

We are honored to announce two of our projects on climate change and human health won the CCBJ’s 2015 Business Achievement Awards for Project Merit: Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience.
The projects include a web-based Heat Vulnerability application that empowers health professionals to understand and communicate how heat and humidity will affect the most vulnerable populations in the U.S., and the Resilient Hospital Dashboard that empowers hospital administrators to assess risks to their facilities, to their patients and to their communities.
View the Heat Vulnerability App
Explore Resilient Hospitals

California: Preparing Public Health Officials for Climate Change

 

hospital image

Four Twenty Seven was recently awarded a contract from the State of California to develop a decision-support tool for public health officials. Working closely with state and county public health agencies across California, and with the expert support from our partners from the Public Health Institute, Argos Analytics, and HabitatSeven, we will develop a tool that enables better preparedness and response to heat health events in communities across California.

The project is part of the California Fourth Climate Change Assessment, a statewide effort to provide critical additional information to support decisions that will safeguard the people, economy and resources of California.

Preparing Hospitals for Climate Change: the Resilient Hospital Dashboard

 

Resilient Hospital Dashboard

A busy medical ward is the last place you want the lights to go out in the event of a hurricane, flood or extreme weather event. These are also the conditions that can drive surges of patients to emergency rooms for treatment at a rate that can quickly outpace the hospitals capacity to react. However, most hospitals have yet to integrate local climate change projections into their risk management and planning processes.

To support hospital resilience, and as part of our commitment to the White House Climate Data Initiative, our team has created the Resilient Hospital Dashboard. This analytical, interactive application is designed to help hospitals understand their vulnerability so they can become more resilient and continue to provide high-quality care to their patients.

Insights In Resilience: The Nexus of Climate Change and Human Health

 

The healthcare sector is often the first to witness the impacts of poor air quality, extreme weather patterns and other climate related hazards on the health of their community.

We asked our director of research, Nik Steinberg, to present his work to inform the healthcare industry about the effects of climate change and the trends he is observing in how healthcare professionals approach climate change.

Climate Change and the Zika Virus

 

Zika Virus is in the news, and the media and scientists alike are asking about the role climate change will play in the spread of the disease. This article from Vox, Zika virus, explained in 6 charts and mapsbreaks down the virus through visuals, citing evidence from the CDC and research from the University of Arizona. The disease is having profound health impacts in Brazil. Eric Holthaus, of Slate puts the implications of climate change and Zika in the context of global equity, he writes: “Zika is heartbreaking because it’s hitting communities in Brazil while they’re down. It’s taking the most precious things from people who already have very little. That’s also the main tragedy of climate change: It was caused by us, in relatively wealthier countries, but we don’t really have to pay for the worst of it.” 

The American Academy of Pediatrics released a statement and report on Global Climate Change and Children’s Health and the need to act on climate to protect the health of our children and grandchildren.

Learn how we are working to support health care professionals with our award winning Heat Vulnerability Maps.

Resources: Understanding the Health Impacts of Climate Change

 

Greenhouse gas emissions threaten public health by affecting local air quality. Respiratory, cardiovascular, and mental diseases have all been tied to climate change or air pollution linked to climate change.

Climate change has also been linked to a rise in extreme weather disasters, as well as war and displacement, both of which often result in morbidity and physical and mental injury. Climate Nexus has provided a compilation of the increasing awareness in the medical community of the risks of climate change.

What we’re Reading- Cancer and Climate Change

NASA climatologist Piers Sellers was recently diagnosed with stage 4 pancreatic cancer. Despite the diagnosis Piers is going to work on climate change solutions because he is “hopeful for our planets future.”

“This diagnosis puts me in an interesting position. I’ve spent much of my professional life thinking about the science of climate change, which is best viewed through a multidecadal lens. At some level I was sure that, even at my present age of 60, I would live to see the most critical part of the problem, and its possible solutions, play out in my lifetime. Now that my personal horizon has been steeply foreshortened, I was forced to decide how to spend my remaining time. Was continuing to think about climate change worth the bother?” 

Continue Reading Piers’ Cancer and Climate Change in the NY Times.

Catch us at these events

Join our team in the field at these upcoming events

March 8-10, 2016 – Climate Leadership Conference, Seattle, WA – Emilie will present on the Business Case for Resilience Investing.
April 3-6, 2016 – The Association of Environmental Professionals (AEP) 2016 Conference, San Diego, CA – Aleka will discuss how cities are tackling the challenge of sea level rise.
April 4-6, 2016 – Northeast Climate Change Preparedness Conference, Baltimore, MD
May 10-13Adaptation Futures, Rotterdam, NL – Yoon will be available to discuss the poster on her forthcoming article in Climate and Development on USAID’s approach to National Adaptation Planning.
May 17-19 – Clean Med, Dallas, TX – Aleka will present our work on climate health analytics and our Resilient Hospitals pilot tool.
May 23-26 – The Sustainable Leadership Purchasing Council Summit, Washington, DC – Emilie will teach the ACCO pre-conference workshop on climate risk in the supply chain.
Sept 7-8, 2016 – California Adaptation Forum, Long Beach, CA
Sept 12-14, 2016Carolinas Climate Resilience Conference, Charlotte, NC

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